As China unveiled its 6th-gen fighter prototype while India is dramatically short on 4.5-gen aircraft, it’s time to explore the situation after 62 years of the 1962 war, when over 2,000 Indian soldiers lost their lives and over 4,000 were taken prisoners.
Turns out, in terms of offensive air assets, India has limited options, and if Pakistan, its adversary in the West, opens another front, it will be a rude awakening for India.
As per the Indian assessment, the People Liberation Army-Air Force was expected to have close to 50 squadrons by 2030 comprising of 4th generation fighters, around 10 squadrons of 5th generation J-20 class aircraft, and early iterations of J-35 equipped with PL-15 beyond visual range missiles, and five to six squadrons of the H-6 long-range bombers.
The assessment did not have a 6th generation fighter and China’s capability to produce one new aircraft design every 10-15 years.
In comparison, the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) fighter squadrons are at an all-time low, with the phasing out of aging MiG-21s being pushed back to keep arresting the falling fighter strength. In the best-case scenario, the IAF is expected to have 32-34 fighter squadrons by 2030. In 2024, 62 years after the 1962 war, the IAF is operating 31 squadrons, the lowest since 1965.
IAF Chief Air Chief Marshal Amar Preet Singh had underscored the yawning technological gap vis-à-vis China. “We have a gap. At the moment, we need to plug the gap by immediate acquisition of fighter jets. For that, we are looking at the ‘Make in India’ platform,” the Chief said.
The IAF Chief vowed to fight with whatever they have should China up its ante, and he contended that the confidence did not stem from a false sense of bravado but from its superior training and exposure.
In the air, China’s PLA Air Force (PLAAF) is considered to have a total strength of around 3,210, which includes 1,232 fighters, 371 dedicated attack aircraft, 224 transport aircraft, 314 trainers, 281 attack helicopters, 911 helicopters, and 112 aircraft maintained for special missions. Compared to this, the IAF has a strength of 2,123, which includes 538 fighters, 172 dedicated attack aircraft, 250 transport aircraft, 359 trainers, 23 attack helicopters, 722 helicopters, and 77 reserved for special missions.
The disparity continues in other services as well. China has a naval fleet strength of 730, which includes 61 submarines and three Helicopter Carriers. India has a fleet strength of 294, with 18 submarines and no Helicopter Carriers.
China’s defense budget is three times India’s. Moreover, China produces almost all its weapons and equipment indigenously. This gives it the ability to get more value for money.
MRFA – Stop Gap Solution
For the time being, the IAFs existing fourth-generation fighter platforms comprising 36 Rafales, around 260 Su-30MKIs, upgraded Mirage 2000s and MiG-29s, and a growing fleet of LCA Mk1s may be sufficient for a “localized conflict.”
However, the experts point out that should the conflict expand beyond the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China, the IAF will find it difficult to execute its critical offensive roles.
“In truth, the IAF does not have enough offensive assets to widely prosecute such a campaign while concurrently maintaining a vigil on the western front, even in the absence of a second front opened by India’s Western adversary, Pakistan. If that country were to open a second front in its role as a prospective vassal state of China, the situation could be challenging,” Air Marshal Arjun Subramaniam (retired) and author of many books on Indian air power wrote in his assessment.
“The acquisition of the 114 MRFA aircraft with high-end fourth-generation capability and combat enablers such as AWACS, aerial refuelers, and intelligence, surveillance, and targeting capabilities could be critical for the IAF to maintain its combat edge over the PLAAF in a two-front scenario,” Air Marshal Subramaniam opined.
Just a few days before the Chinese 6th generation fighter jet prototype took social media by storm, the Indian Ministry of Defence set up a high-powered committee to look into the situation.
Considering the delays in indigenous production, the experts batted for fielding MRFA as soon as possible to plug the gap. LCA delivery started in 2016; in 2024, the IAF has 38 aircraft in its fleet. This is in stark contrast to the J-20 Mighty Dragons that entered service in 2017, and PLAAF already has over 200 fighter jets in its fleet. The goal is to take the number to 400 by 2027 and 1,000 by 2035.
As far as LCA Mk2 is concerned, 2027 is supposed to be the time when the research and development stage will be over, and thereafter, the production stage will start.
Maritime Element Of Air Power
When discussing air power in the Indo-China conflict, generally, it is restricted to a limited high-altitude conflict. However, China is foraying into the Indian Ocean Region by securing military bases in the region. Beijing has yet to deploy air assets here, but it is not a distant possibility.
The PLAAF and the PLA-Navy will field their air power in bases in Pakistan, the East Coast of Africa, or anywhere in South East Asia. Once it happens, India will have to reassess its air power projects in the region. No doubt, the IAF and the Indian Navy are honing their maritime air operations.
With an eye on China, IAF’s ‘Dragons’ Jaguar Maritime Strike fighter jets have been operating from Andamans and Nicobar to demonstrate the application of air power in the isles sitting on the entrance to the IOR and close to Malacca Straits, a potential chokepoint critical to China’s security.
In 2023, four Rafale fighter aircraft of the IAF carried out a “strategic” mission over the IOR for over six hours, demonstrating their long-range combat capabilities. The Rafales that took off from the northeastern IAF base simulated strike missions in the archipelago.
The island chain comprising 572 islands is emerging as an essential piece of India’s strategy to balance China’s burgeoning dominance in the Indo-Pacific. The islands control the Bay of Bengal, the Six Degree, and the Ten Degree channels, which over 60,000 commercial vessels use.
India is developing the islands’ military assets as part of a 10-year infrastructure development. The Campbell Bay (INS Baaz) runway in the south will be extended to 10,000 feet to support operations by larger aircraft. Another 10,000-foot runway is planned at Kamorta.
The long-range strike aircraft of the IAF will complement the airpower packed by the two aircraft carriers of the Indian Navy.
Along with this, the Indian government has, in July 2024, approved two projects to create a joint user greenfield and IAF Forward Base Support Unit at Minicoy, Lakshadweep – another island chain of India in the Arabian Sea. The IAF will also expand the airfield at Agatti, which will help India project airpower in the IOR.
The Navy has also responded by approving the acquisition of 31 Rafale M (Marine) and MQ-9B ‘Predators.’ The two services have been working on greater engagement and better interoperability, as demonstrated in the March 2024 anti-piracy operation in the high seas.
The Indian Navy and the IAF pooled their resources to paradrop marine commandos from Boeing C-17 Globemaster to rescue a hijacked merchant vessel 1400 nautical miles from the Indian shores.
It was the first insertion of marine commandos through airdrop on high seas. A rescue right out of Hollywood flick Captain Phillips, the Indian forces executed the anti-piracy operation on the high seas that unfolded for over 40 hours.
Integrated formations and communications and the optimum utilization of resources under the proposed theatre commands seem to be the way out for the Indian forces. A proposal is now with the Ministry of Defence to establish a China-focused Northern Theatre Command in Lucknow, a Pakistan-centric Western Theatre Command in Jaipur, and a Maritime Theatre Command in Thiruvananthapuram.
The plan is to have the Western Theatre Command from Indira Col on Saltoro Ridge in the Siachen Glacier till Gujarat, with its expected headquarters in Jaipur. The Northern Theatre Command will cover the entire 3,488 kilometers of the Line of Actual Control (LAC), India’s de facto border with China, starting from the Himalayan heights of Ladakh and extending all the way to Kibithu in Arunachal Pradesh. Its headquarters are expected to be in Lucknow. The Maritime Command, based in Thiruvananthapuram, will be responsible for India’s 7,516 km-long coastline.
The proposed ITCs will combine units from the Indian Army, Indian Navy, and Indian Air Force under one commander, the goal being to make the armed forces more efficient during emergencies and conflicts by integrating personnel, assets, infrastructure, and logistics of the three military services.
