By Air Marshal (R) RGK Kapoor
Asia’s biggest air show is currently enthralling crowds at Bengaluru. At the air show, there is also chatter about two fifth-generation fighters from opposite ends of the geopolitical spectrum: the F-35 from the USA and the SU-57 from Russia. Shortages of fighter aircraft in the IAF are a well-known and widely discussed issue in recent times.
The IAF is going through one of the most challenging phases in its history with major capability shortages. On the other hand, India’s two neighbors are going ahead full throttle in expanding the quality and quantity of their fighter aircraft. The ratios are getting challenging.
Air power is the primary instrument of national power. The effects it can create are due to its responsiveness, firepower, agility, flexibility, and vertical envelopment, which demand that it embrace current technological trends.
Present Situation
According to the World Directory of Modern Military Aircraft (WDMMA), China has around 2,184 combat aircraft, Pakistan has around 498, and India has around 542 combat aircraft. This clearly highlights India’s reduced force ratios against its two neighbors.
While numerous measures have been suggested to overcome this slide, the numbers are not likely to increase over the next few years since LCA Mk1A is delayed, the order for an additional 97 LCA Mk1As has yet to be green-lighted, and the RFP for MRFA is being worked out.
The delay in the supply of GE F404 engines for LCA Mk1A means that the first LCA Mk1A squadron will not be completed by March 2026.
China is likely to have more than 1500 fifth—and sixth-generation fighters by 2035, and Pakistan is likely to get 40 J-35s from China and an unspecified number of Kaan fifth-generation fighters in partnership with Türkiye.
So, by 2030, both the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) and Pakistan Air Force (PAF) will have fifth-generation fighters, while advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) will be under development.
A slide presented during a briefing at Aero India 2025 enumerated the timelines for planned fighter inductions into the IAF. Currently, 220 LCA Mk1/1As, 120 LCA Mk2s, and 120 AMCAs are to be produced in the country, of which 40 have been handed over to the IAF.
The plan is to produce 83 LCA Mk1As by 2029 (a new timeframe will be provided for the additional 97), 120 LCA Mk2s by 2035, and AMCA from 2036 onwards.
Air Chief Marshal AP Singh, while sitting in an LCA aircraft on the tarmac during Aero India, made some scathing remarks like he is not confident of HAL, “HAL is not in mission mode,” and that the four aircraft formation flown in the air show is actually not Mk1A since it does not have all the designated capabilities. He said it is high time something has to change to ensure the IAF gets the capability while also accepting that the IAF, too, was responsible in some way by making changes in Qualitative Requirements (QRs) along the way.
The MRFA project is at the RFP stage, and very optimistically, if all goes well, the aircraft could get inducted in 2029 and all 114 aircraft manufactured by 2035. The contract would, therefore, not really help the IAF make good its present voids in a desired timeframe.
LCA Mk2, stated to be a 4++ generation fighter with an all-up weight of 17,500 Kgs, carrying a weapon load of 6500 Kgs and internal fuel of 3300 Kgs, is in the M-2000 category and below the Rafale, which has an all-up weight of 24,500 Kgs, carrying weapon load of 9,500 Kgs and 4,700 kgs of internal fuel. However, considering the requirements in the Indian context, the aircraft would fulfill its role of a 4++ generation aircraft.
It is pertinent to note the effects achieved by the Israeli Air Force in its strike against Iran using a combination of F-35, F-16, and F-15s. In the Indian context, this could be achieved by LCA Mk2, Rafales, and a fifth-generation fighter.
Once upgraded, the SU-30 MKI would match or better the Rafale.
Fifth Generation Option For IAF
The IAF is now left with very few options to ensure it acquires the requisite capability within the designated time frame. While the developers and HAL have made assurances, the numerous variables make these assurances a little shaky. A different approach is the need of the hour.
Currently, two fifth-generation platforms, F-35 and SU-57, are participating in Aero India. Both aircraft have been attracting large crowds.
It is pertinent to highlight that air displays are not a measure of the actual potential of fifth-generation fighters since their capability lies inside the aircraft in the form of its avionics, sensors, sensor fusion, and low observability.
A lot more goes into identifying these aircraft’s actual capabilities. SU-57s have been produced in smaller numbers and have not actively participated in combat operations. On the other hand, the F-35 is part of many Air Forces; more than 1,000 aircraft are in active service, and the aircraft is combat-proven.
The USAF Chief of Staff, during an interaction with the media in February 2019, stated that the F-35s, when pitched against fourth—and fourth-generation fighters during a Red Flag exercise, achieved a kill ratio of 20:1.
While there has been improvement even among fourth-generation fighters, the kill ratios are likely to remain well in favor of fifth-generation fighters. So, going forward in the 2030 time frame, the IAF must have adequate numbers of fifth-generation fighters.
The IAF is authorized to have 42.5 fighter squadrons, which translates into about 765 aircraft. The force structure as per the present plan in 2030 is likely to be 272 SU-30 MKI, 36 Rafales, 50 M-2000, 50 MiG-29, 123 LCA Mk1/1A, and 105 Jaguars (531 fighters, which is 30.5 squadrons).
Additionally, 97 LCA Mk1As and 120 LCA Mk2s would be under production, which may increase the number of squadrons to 33.5 since all 97 LCA Mk1As would not have been produced by then.
This is the IAF’s transition period. Beyond 2030, the M-2000, MiG-29, and Jaguars will be phasing out, and AMCA will still be under trial. This crucial time gap must be filled with fifth-generation fighters.
In this context, the nation must evaluate the best fifth-generation option. Russia is believed to be once again offering Su-57 fighters to India, while Trump has “pitched” F-35 fighters.
India is in a good position to negotiate and strike a hard bargain. An expert committee must be formed immediately to assess the capabilities of F-35 and SU-57, with special emphasis on life cycle costs and the transfer of technology or specific collaborative assistance in critical technologies that our R&D is lagging behind in. This will ensure that LCA Mk2 is truly indigenous with complete independence for integration and future upgrades.
Also, if the F-35 is seriously considered, the US must ensure complete freedom of employing the aircraft in selected geographical environments to honor India’s status as a Major Defense Partner and allay the concerns about the USA’s reliability as a defense partner.
Therefore, instead of 114 MRFA, India could procure four squadrons (72 aircraft) of F-35 or SU-57 depending on who provides the best deal and capability with India-specific weapons, future integration of Indian weapons, and collaboration in achieving self-sufficiency in specified critical technologies.
If pushed at the highest level, these 72 aircraft would be far superior to the 114 MRFA, perhaps in a comparatively earlier timeframe.
This, however, does not mean that the requirement of 42.5 squadrons could be pruned down since a larger fifth-generation fleet would be required in the 2035-40 timeframe when most Air Forces worldwide would be operating fifth—and sixth-generation fighters. This decision would also provide a good balance between 4++ and fifth-generation fighters in the IAF.
This alternative would ensure HAL remains focused on LCA Mk1A and Mk2, the upgradation of SU-30 MKI, and AMCA. It will also align with the country’s Atmanirbhar policy, and the technological assistance associated with the fifth-generation aircraft contract would help leapfrog critical technologies for future fighter aircraft projects and Twin Engine Deck Based Fighter (TEDBF).
By exercising this option, IAF in 2035 would have 272 SU-30 MKI, 220 LCA Mk1/1A, 120 LCA Mk2, 36 Rafales, and 72 Fifth-generation fighters (totaling 720 fighter aircraft/ 40 fighter squadrons), subsequently 120 AMCA would get inducted.
Conclusion
Indian aerospace power must remain the instrument of choice, and it must remain abreast or ahead of its peers and adversaries. The current situation demands urgent measures and out-of-the-box solutions. The next five to seven years are crucial for the IAF with the phasing out of many fleets.
Inducting fifth-generation fighters instead of MRFA would provide the IAF with credible deterrence capability, give the nation an opportunity to absorb, train, and operationally employ fifth-generation technologies, and achieve complete indigenization on LCA Mk2.
This experience would be invaluable in the early fructification of the AMCA project. The biggest advantage of implementing this would be a larger indigenous fighter aircraft fleet, greater commonality of components and spares, and efficient inventory management with low life cycle costs and superior overall combat capability.
- Air Marshal (R) RGK Kapoor, PVSM, AVSM, VM, is a retired officer of the Indian Air Force. He served as the Air Officer Commanding-in-Chief (AOC-in-C) of Central Air Command.
- Mail EurAsian Times at editor (at) eurasiantimes.com
