In the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Helsinki is reportedly worried that Moscow may target NATO’s eastern flank, particularly Finland and its neighboring countries.
Finnish newspaper Iltalehti, citing an alleged government defense report, revealed that unnamed NATO sources have warned of Moscow’s intentions to launch attacks on Finland, the Baltic states, and potentially other nearby nations. However, no specific timeline for such an action has been outlined.
The report referenced past military exercises, such as Russia’s 2017 Zapad exercise, during which Moscow simulated attacks on Norway, Finland, and the Baltic nations. Iltalehti suggested that Russia had not abandoned its invasion plans and might pursue them once the conflict in Ukraine concludes.
The newspaper also mentioned NATO sources suggesting that Russia could plan a coordinated attack on various parts of the alliance’s eastern flank. This could include Russia’s 14th Army Corps advancing from Murmansk toward the Norwegian coast by sea, land, and air.
Additionally, Russia might deploy troops to Lapland (the northernmost region of Finland) to capture Ivalo Airport, with missile forces stationed on the Kola Peninsula potentially targeting Finland.
The Finnish report also detailed a potential Russian strategy to establish a buffer zone in Northern Lapland and Norway’s Finnmark.
It was further indicated that Russian missile forces could target Finland’s southern and southeastern coastlines. At the same time, Moscow’s 6th Army might attempt to break through Estonia and Latvia by assaulting their capitals.
Lithuania could also be at risk, as Russia may attempt to use Belarus as a route to establish a land corridor linking the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad to Belarus, potentially seizing the Suwalki Corridor, a region critical to NATO’s defense strategy.
The report also pointed to Russia’s military presence in Kaliningrad and its Baltic Fleet, which could target Sweden’s Gotland island in an effort to disrupt NATO’s operations in the Baltics.
According to the Finnish government report, Russia’s security strategy is driven by a desire to create a “buffer zone” spanning from the Arctic to the Mediterranean, encompassing the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea.
Micael Bydén, the former head of Sweden’s armed forces, remarked that Russia’s long-term goal may be to exert control over the Baltic Sea. In response to the report, Finland’s Defense Forces (FDF) said rehearsals are a normal part of any military’s operations.
A statement from the FDF said, “There is no immediate military threat to Finland,” adding that the country would continue to monitor developments closely without commenting on media speculation regarding other nations’ military activities.
NATO Faces Growing Concerns?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has long articulated his vision of reclaiming historical territories, with the 17th-century Russian Empire serving as a model for his aspirations.
As the war in Ukraine continues, Western experts and officials have warned that Russia’s ambitions will not stop with Ukraine. Putin is seen as likely to exploit security vulnerabilities across Europe, even eyeing regions as far south as Georgia, which shares a border with Turkey.
This has raised alarm about the possibility of future Russian attacks on NATO countries, which could trigger a collective military response under NATO’s Article 5. The article stipulates that an attack on one member would be considered an attack on all, obligating all members to respond.
In June, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said that Putin “might even attack a NATO country” and stressed the need for Europe to be ready for potential conflict by 2029.
With this in mind, the Baltic states and Finland—countries with direct borders to Russia—are particularly vulnerable to Moscow’s ambitions. In recent months, these nations, among NATO’s top contributors to defense spending relative to GDP, have bolstered their security measures.
Moreover, NATO has ramped up military preparedness. In March, NATO led the Nordic Response 2024 exercise, involving 20,000 soldiers transferred to Northern Norway and Finnish Lapland, under the leadership of US Vice Admiral Douglas Perry.
In another concerning development, Finland recently seized an oil tanker suspected of belonging to Russia’s “shadow fleet.” The vessel was linked to the damage of submarine cables off the coast of Finland on Christmas Day.
Speaking to Sky News, NATO’s deputy assistant secretary general for hybrid and cyber threats warned that these attacks could escalate significantly, stating that there is a “real prospect” that one of these hybrid assaults could cause substantial casualties or massive economic damage.
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