China is building missile capability to strike US military assets at bases in the Western Pacific as far as Guam. It is also conscious that US Aircraft Carriers are the only other means of bringing airpower against the Chinese mainland.
Carrier killer missiles, including hypersonic ones, are being built. China also has an inventory of long-range air-to-air missiles (AAM) to keep American AWACS and Flight Refuelling Aircraft (FRA) far away.
After the sinking of the Russian Flagship Cruiser Moskva through a cruise missile attack, large ships have not been used for combat operations in the Black Sea during the Ukraine conflict.
The conflict around the Red Sea has seen ships vulnerable to drone and drone swarm attacks. The same will apply to large ships and aircraft carriers.
While an aircraft carrier is undoubtedly a large platform for taking airpower to far-off lands, it is very expensive and needs a large fleet for protection. Losing one can dent national pride and military morale.
Others want the navies to prioritize funding for carriers, submarines, and uncrewed naval platforms. While the debate between aircraft carriers and shore-based air power is an old one, as long-range offensive weapons technologies improve, the subject needs to be revisited.
Aircraft Carriers
The British, Japanese, and United States Navy (USN) developed early aircraft carriers. By World War II, the USN had 35 carriers. During the Cold War, supercarriers were built. Enterprise (CVN-65) was the first nuclear-powered carrier, and John F. Kennedy (CV-67) was the last conventionally powered carrier.
These were then followed by the Nimitz class and the modern-day post-Cold War Gerald R. Ford-class nuclear supercarriers, the only two classes of supercarriers currently in active duty service. Today, the USA has 11 Supercarriers. Three are under fitting or construction, and one more was just ordered. Typically, a Nimitz-class aircraft carrier can travel at over 55 km/h.
The USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, has over 100,000 tons of displacement, 25 decks, and can carry around 80 aircraft. Its estimated cost is US$12.8 billion, plus US$4.7 billion for R&D.
The total combined deck space in the US is over twice that of all other nations combined. The USN also has nine amphibious assault ships, which are used primarily for helicopters. These ships each carry up to 20 vertical or short take-off and landing (V/STOL) fighter jets and are similar in size to medium-sized fleet carriers.
As of March 2024, 47 active aircraft carriers worldwide are operated by fourteen navies. India, the United Kingdom, and China each operate two aircraft carriers. France and Russia each operate a single aircraft carrier with a capacity of 30 to 60 fighters. Italy operates two and Spain one light V/STOL aircraft-carrying assault ship.
Helicopter carriers are operated by Japan (4, two of which are being converted to operate V/STOL fighters), France (3), Australia (2), Egypt (2), South Korea (2), China (3), Thailand (1) and Brazil (1). Future aircraft carriers are under construction or planned by China, France, India, Russia, South Korea, Turkey, and the US.
Indian Aircraft Carriers
INS Vikramaditya, the refurbished Russian carrier that entered service in 2013, displaced 45,400 tons. The now commissioned, first Indigenous aircraft carrier (IAC-1) INS Vikrant, constructed by the Cochin Shipyard Limited (CSL), Kerala, is a 262-meter longship that displaces about 45,000 tons. Its top speed is 28 knots, and its range is from 7,500 to 13,900 km.
The Vikrant can house up to 26 MiG-29K fighters and 4 Kamov Ka-31 airborne early warning and control helicopters. It could also have combinations of HAL Dhruv utility helicopters and MH-60R multi-role helicopters.
The total cost of the IAC-1 project has reportedly been approximately Rs 230 billion (US$2.9 billion) and counting. This excludes the cost of onboard aircraft. Typically, the expected life of the carrier could be 40 years.
The proposed 65,000-ton indigenous INS Vishal (IAC-2) is meant to have an Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS) CATOBAR system to allow heavier aircraft.
The aircraft carrier is meant to replace the Vikramaditya. At current prices, analysts say the Vishal, including the aircraft, could cost US$16–18 billion (Rs 143,300 crore).
Aircraft Carrier Defences
Large ships are highly susceptible to the threat of high-speed and hypersonic cruise missiles. These ships deploy anti-air self-defense systems to ensure their survivability and enable them to meet their missions.
Typically, the carrier is defended through multi-layered defenses. There are early warning radars on ships that are part of the carrier group and airborne early warning (AEW) platforms that give early warning.
Carrier group ships also have AD weapons to take on the threat before it reaches the aircraft carrier. Carrier-based aircraft also keep the intruding threat at safe distances. The carrier itself has its own multi-layered self-defense systems to take on aircraft and missiles. Modern carriers are being fitted with directed energy weapons (DEW).
Hypersonic Weapons
Hypersonic weapons can travel between 5 and 25 times the speed of sound. There are two types of hypersonic weapons: hypersonic glide vehicles (HGV), which glide through the atmosphere at high speeds after an initial ballistic launch phase, and hypersonic cruise missiles (HCM), which use air-breathing engines such as scramjets to reach high speeds.
Russia has operational hypersonic weapons that have been repeatedly used in the Ukraine war. Some of them are 3M22 Zircon, Avangard HGV, and Kh-47M2 Kinzhal.
The Kinzhal can be launched from MiG-31 and Su-34 fighters. Moscow is also “developing Zircon, a ship-launched hypersonic cruise missile capable of striking both ground and naval targets.”
China has a very advanced hypersonic weapons program. In 2019, it demonstrated that DF-ZF HGV mounted on the DF-17 could fly at hypersonic speeds and hit the designated target. In December 2023, Chinese hypersonic anti-ship missiles went undetected in a computer-simulated attack against US warships in a Chinese research lab.
The United States has the Boeing X-51 Waverider and a few DARPA programs, such as the Falcon Project, Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept (HAWC), Hypersonic Air Launched Offensive Anti-Surface (HALO), AIM-260 JATM (expected), and Lockheed Martin Mako. Other countries developing such weapons include Australia, Brazil, France, Germany, Iran, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, and the United Kingdom.
India successfully tested a domestically developed long-range hypersonic missile on 17 November 2024, putting it among the top few nations.
India also has the Hypersonic Technology Demonstrator Vehicle program and is working on the hypersonic BrahMos-II. The private sector deep-tech start-up HTNP Industries is designing, developing, and manufacturing HGV-202F, which is designed to be mounted on the Agni-V and Agni-VI.
Hypersonic Weapon Disruptive Power
‘One mile per second’ is rather fast and gives very high kinetic energy, a function of the square of velocity. A one-kilogram object delivered precisely at such high speed can be more destructive than one-kilogram of TNT. The low-altitude path helps mask HCMs and makes them invisible to early warning radars.
Their maneuverability allows them to change course until the last minutes of flight and achieve a high degree of targeting precision. Even HGVs can maneuver during flight, so they are more difficult to intercept, even if detected.
Hypersonic weapons are a disruptive technology capable of striking in a short time by offering the precision of near-zero-miss weapons, the speed of ballistic missiles, and the maneuverability of cruise missiles.
Hypersonic Threat To Carrier
Many view aircraft carriers as the Navy’s crown jewels. As Washington and Beijing are locked in great power competition in the Indo-Pacific and beyond, a potential scenario could involve a Chinese bomber flying over the Western Pacific, launching hypersonic anti-ship missiles that overwhelm defensive systems on the hull and disable the aircraft carrier.
Hypersonic weapons pose a unique threat compared to traditional ballistic and cruise missiles because of their high speed and maneuverability. Traditional cruise missiles are also maneuverable, but their air-breathing systems typically fly at subsonic speeds. Defenders would have much less time to intercept incoming hypersonic weapons.
The new missiles significantly lower the effectiveness of air defenses even if the carrier strike group was operating as far as 2,000 kilometers from the launch site. The Chinese weapons are improving in range and precision and would pose serious risks to carrier battle groups.
The Answers To Hypersonic Threat
To defend against hypersonic attack threats, there is a need to develop longer-range over-the-horizon radars and faster and more maneuverable interceptors. Hypervelocity projectiles that could be launched from electromagnetic rail guns or powder guns could be an option.
When matured, DEWs (laser weapons) could be formidable, cheaper, and have unlimited ammunition. It could greatly increase the capacity to handle salvos of enemy hypersonic weapons.
Shipboard lasers, high-powered microwaves, and electronic warfare systems could also potentially contribute. Decoys or other spoofing methods can also help complicate the task of enemy shooters.
Meanwhile, the aircraft carrier would maneuver and change its course and speed in a high-threat environment to avoid imminent attack. Adversary communications could be jammed to prevent passing locations and updates to the launchers on the mainland.
Intercepting geometry for hypersonic missiles would be complex and challenging, but high-performance AAMs meant to intercept supersonic aircraft could be used. Developing a more robust sensor layer, including in space, for full flight-cycle tracking will be required.
Chinese and Russian tactical HCMs have low RCS, so tracking would require a cluster of satellites. Some level of tactical anticipation will be required for positioning interceptor systems. The most effective would be to destroy some or all enemy weapons platforms before launch.
Major Navies feel that the carrier battle groups and air wings would adapt to the emerging hypersonic threat, just as they did to Japanese kamikazes in World War II and Soviet bombers equipped with anti-ship missiles during the Cold War. Naval Aviators are convinced that it is not the doomsday end of the carrier.
Marine Uncrewed Attack Craft
Uncrewed marine surface vehicles (USVs), drone boats, and subsurface craft are growing in numbers. Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) increase offensive capability against improved USV defenses. Similarly, there could be a threat of weapon-laden drone swarms.
While drone boats and autonomous submarines have many peacetime and defensive roles, such as environmental monitoring, hydrography, commercial shipping, target firing practice, and mine clearance, their offensive role needs special defenses.
They are being used for surveillance and reconnaissance, strike operations, and area or sea denial. DARPA has an anti-submarine USV project called Sea Hunter. L3Harris Technologies is building USVs with very high displacements. A smarm of drone boats and submarines could be launched against an aircraft carrier coordinated with simultaneous air strikes.
USVs vary in size from under one meter in length to over 20 meters, with displacements ranging from a few kilograms to many tonnes. USVs have the advantage of no risk to own human life and are smaller in size and cost.
A Ukrainian USV was used in the 2022 Crimean Bridge explosion. In December 2023, Russia unveiled its first kamikaze USV, “Oduvanchik.” The sea drone can carry up to 600 kg of explosives, has a range of 200 km, and has a speed of 80 km/h.
In January 2024, TCB Marlin entered the Turkish Naval Forces service as the first armed USV. On 1 February 2024, the Russian Tarantul-III class missile corvette Ivanovets was sunk in the Donuzlav Bay after being attacked by Ukrainian USVs.
In 2024, India’s Sagar Defence Engineering Pvt Ltd demonstrated the 850 nautical miles autonomous transit of the Matangi Autonomous Surface Vessel to the Indian Navy.
These boats are equipped with a 12.7mm SRCG gun and can patrol day and night at speeds above 50 knots. The Indian Navy is to acquire 12 such autonomous boats, which will also be used to patrol Pangong Tso Lake.
Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUV)
In April 2024, Ukraine announced that it was testing an “unmanned submarine” that can be fitted with a warhead, stealth features, and sensors, carry up to 10 divers, carry six torpedoes or missiles, and have an endurance of 54 hours/1000 kilometers, with a speed of up to 50 km/h underwater.
In May 2024, Northrop Grumman revealed an underwater drone named the Manta Ray. The drone, built for DARPA, represents a new class of unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) developed to perform long-duration, long-range military missions with as little human oversight as possible.
Huntington Ingalls Industries’ Proteus is a dual-mode UUV capable of conducting a full-kill demonstration on seabed warfare. General Dynamics has a cross-domain multi-platform UUV.
China’s Harbin Engineering University has developed trans-medium ‘flying submarine’ drones capable of both underwater and air travel, and it has noted their potential military applications.
Countering USVs & UUVs
Navies have had defenses against air strikes, torpedoes, and cruise missiles. Similarly, they are evolving means to defend against drones and uncrewed marine crafts.
Navies use various booms or nets to stop drone boat attacks. Use of dazzle camouflage, designed to disguise a ship’s heading and speed at sea, aimed to confuse operators of suicide drones and satellites and prevent them from easily identifying important ships.
Attack helicopters can destroy drones during an attack. Electromagnetic noise countermeasures have been tried to jam communications of offensive USV drones. USVs can escort large ships to take on USVs. A big issue could be the disruption of communications between ground control and UUVs.
Indian Scenario
As the Indo-Pacific becomes an area of great power rivalry, much action shifts to the Indian Ocean. China is expanding its naval power at a very fast rate. In a decade, they will have six aircraft carriers.
Hypersonic technology is disruptive, fast, and furiously accurate. When India decides on its next aircraft carrier, it must have additional defense features.
India must accelerate development and build hypersonic weapons, USVs, and UUVs capable of denying access to the PLA Navy (PLAN). Chinese hypersonic weapons and UUV capabilities must be factored in.
India must increase its air infrastructure and assets in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and accelerate its HSTDV and Indo-Russian hypersonic BrahMos II development.
To Summarise
A RAND study suggests that HGVs would be detected only six minutes before impact. Even if detected by ground-based radar, there will be a high degree of uncertainty about their destinations. This makes hypersonic missiles suitable for surprise long-range strikes.
Counter-hypersonic solutions designed to stop enemy hypersonic weapons are evolving. The United States is currently developing a new satellite-sensor layer, which presumably would be positioned in low earth orbit (LEO), to provide continuous tracking of both ballistic missiles and hypersonic vehicles.
Meanwhile, a new generation of over-the-horizon (OTH) radars like the Russian Konteyner radar and Chinese J27-A will likely detect hypersonic missiles 3,000 km away. Delayed detection and a degraded decision-making environment may have consequences for threat perceptions and accidental escalation.
Using existing SAMs as ‘area defense weapons’ against hypersonic weapons would be impractical for various technical reasons. As more and more countries acquire hypersonic weapons, their destabilizing effect will pose a challenge to arms control.
Many consider conventional hypersonic weapons or strategic non-nuclear high-precision weapons to be equivalent to nuclear weapons in terms of their implications for deterrence.
The bottom line is that hypersonic weapons will determine who is ‘precise’ and ‘prompt’ enough in 21st-century conflict. While India builds its own hypersonic, USV, and UUV capabilities, it must strengthen carrier defenses and plan appropriate flotilla composition and tactics.
- Air Marshal Anil Chopra (Retired) is an Indian Air Force veteran fighter test pilot and former Director-General of the Center for Air Power Studies in New Delhi. He has been decorated with gallantry and distinguished service medals while serving in the IAF for 40 years.
- He tweets @Chopsyturvey
- Follow EurAsian Times on Google News
