Once Ukraine’s staunchest ally, the United States has now pivoted to a move that delivers a diplomatic setback to Kyiv and emboldens Russia. As a result, Ukraine is now looking to the EU with great hope to escape this US-Russian trap.
Marking a stark shift under the Trump administration, the US twice sided with Russia in key UN votes on Ukraine. It opposed a European-backed resolution condemning Moscow at the UN General Assembly, aligning with Russia, North Korea, and Belarus.
Separately, it drafted a UN Security Council resolution calling for an end to the war—conspicuously omitting any criticism of Russia.
Recently, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sharply criticized Trump for targeting Ukraine instead of confronting Moscow, remarking, “Mr. Trump has chosen the wrong adversary. Peace through force—but towards Russia, not in the other direction.”
Zelensky called for a European leaders’ summit on March 6 to discuss aid and security guarantees, emphasizing that this is a defining moment for Ukraine and European security. EU Summit Chairman Antonio Costa echoed this sentiment, stating that Europe must decisively strengthen its defense and ensure Ukraine’s long-term security.
Europe’s Response: Can It Step Up?
Meanwhile, the European Union is now working on a €20 billion (US$20.9 billion) military aid package for Ukraine, including air defense systems and artillery, Bloomberg reports. However, Hungary—a staunch Kremlin ally—opposes additional aid.
Germany and Poland rejected a dictated peace, with Polish PM Donald Tusk warning that “Europe needs its own plan on Ukraine, or other global players will decide about our future.”
However, at the Munich Security Conference, Zelensky asserted that Ukraine would “never accept deals made behind our backs without our involvement,” following Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin’s agreement to initiate peace talks.
“Europe In A Mousetrap”
Under NATO’s agreement, member states within the alliance must allocate 2% of their GDP to defense annually. However, in 2023, only the United States and a few European nations near Russia met or exceeded this target. Meanwhile, some of Europe’s largest economies—Germany, France, Italy, and Spain—continued to fall short.
Under Trump, the US made it clear that ‘European security is no longer a priority.’ At a February 12 meeting in Brussels, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth shocked EU ministers by stating they could no longer rely on US guarantees and must bear the “overwhelming” cost of aiding Ukraine.
Trump has, in doing so, “put Europe in a mousetrap,” according to Sundeep Waslekar, President of the Strategic Foresight Group.
By downplaying European security, he has pushed EU leaders to hike defense spending beyond 2% of GDP—benefiting American arms manufacturers. “Trump wins both ways,” Waslekar notes. “He secures European tax money for U.S. defense firms while bolstering his ideological allies.”
He adds that the real question is whether European leaders have the vision and confidence to escape the trap and build a future based on peace and cooperative security.
European democracies now face two choices: either ramp up defense spending or risk long-term influence from oligarchic networks.
‘Army Of Europe’
After being sidelined by the US, Zelensky called for the ‘Army of Europe’ to counter Russia. “Let’s be honest—Europe can no longer rule out the possibility that America might say no on critical security issues,” he said.
However, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski swiftly rejected the idea, stressing that “EU defense efforts should support NATO, not replace it.”
However, the concept of a European army is not new—French President Emmanuel Macron has long advocated for it to reduce reliance on the US.
Can Europe Create A NATO Alternative?
NATO’s backbone has always been Article 5—an attack on one is an attack on all. However, with the US covering nearly 70% of NATO’s total expenditure, the alliance leans heavily on American funding.
Now, under Trump, Washington has warned that if Europe doesn’t contribute its fair share, the U.S. won’t shoulder the burden alone.
Despite strong economies, some European nations have resisted increasing defense spending, relying instead on the US for security.
Nevertheless, the past decade has seen a shift. Defense budgets across Europe have steadily increased, rising from €182 billion (US$192 billion) in 2014 to €326 billion (US$342 billion) in 2024. More nations are now committing to NATO’s spending target, albeit slowly.
Defense budgets aren’t the only challenge—deep divisions exist within the European Union. With around 27 member states, each has its own priorities and military needs. Political tensions and differing alliances further complicate the idea of a unified European army, making consensus difficult to achieve.
Now, with the US reconsidering its role, the pressure is mounting— can Europe create an Independent Defense Framework?
Europe’s Alternative Strategy?
To counterbalance America’s retreat, Europe is exploring alternative security structures.
The Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP), established in 1999, enables the EU to deploy civilian, police, and military forces for crisis prevention, conflict management, and post-war stabilization. While it commands approximately 300,000 troops, its power and resources remain far below NATO’s capabilities.
A report by the Brussels-based think tank ‘Bruegel’ suggests that while replacing U.S. military aid to Ukraine is challenging, it is financially feasible for the EU.
Since February 2022, the US has provided €64 billion (US$67 billion) in military support, while Europe, including the UK, has contributed €62 billion (US$65 billion).
In 2024 alone, US aid accounted for €20 billion (US$21 billion) of the total €42 billion (US$44 billion) aid to Ukraine.
According to the report, to fully replace US contributions, the EU would need to spend just 0.12% more of its GDP—an affordable figure.
However, when it comes to broader security, NATO’s current doctrine requires 200,000 U.S. troops to reinforce 100,000 European troops in the event of a Russian attack. Without U.S. support, Europe would need to independently field and sustain a 300,000-strong, well-trained, well-equipped force—a daunting but necessary challenge.
Response Of European Arms Makers
It’s interesting to see how European arms manufacturers are responding to the shifting geopolitical landscape.
As the geopolitical landscape shifts, European defense manufacturers are experiencing unprecedented growth. Defense stocks have soared, with Italy’s Leonardo, Sweden’s Saab AB, and Britain’s BAE Systems seeing record highs. German defense giants Rheinmetall and Thyssenkrupp are also benefiting, while European military supplier KNDS is considering an IPO as early as the end of the year.
As Europe prepares to ramp up defense investments, the sector is witnessing an unprecedented rally, signaling a shift toward greater military self-reliance.
With the US pulling back, the question remains: Can Europe build a military force strong enough to secure its own future? The answer will shape not just Ukraine’s fate but the balance of power on the entire continent.
- Shubhangi Palve is a defense and aerospace journalist. Before joining the EurAsian Times, she worked for ET Prime. She has over 15 years of extensive experience in the media industry, spanning print, electronic, and online domains.
- Contact the author at shubhapalve (at) gmail.com
