With growing concerns over US security commitments, European policymakers are pushing for a substantial military buildup and a ‘rearmament plan’ to strengthen the continent’s defense architecture.
For decades, NATO has remained the foundation of European security, heavily reliant on U.S. resources and military presence.
However, with Donald Trump’s second term beginning in January 2025, this dynamic is under scrutiny.
In a March 2025 Fox News interview, Trump said, “Europe’s got to get their act together. They’ve got the money, they’ve got the resources, and we’ve been carrying them too long. They need to step up big time.”
This rhetoric has raised concerns about potential U.S. troop and funding cuts to NATO, prompting European nations to bolster their military capabilities.
Challenges Of Military Expansion
A recent report by Alexandr Burilkov and Guntram Wolff estimates that Europe would require at least 300,000 additional troops and an annual defense budget increase of €250 billion (US$ 272.65 billion) to match the capabilities of the U.S. military.
While Europe already has 1.47 million active-duty personnel spread across 29 national armies, the primary challenge is not manpower but coordination. Unlike the United States, which operates under a centralized military command, European forces remain fragmented under separate national structures, making joint operations inefficient and logistically complex.
Recruiting and training such a large force would require at least €250 billion (US$272.65 billion) annually. Estimates from the RAND Corporation suggest that €120 billion (US$130.87 billion) would be allocated for salaries and maintenance, €80 billion (US$87.25 billion) for equipment procurement, and €50 billion (US$54.53 billion) for infrastructure and logistics.
According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, this would push EU defense spending beyond 3.5% of GDP, a level not seen since the Cold War.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has defended the need for increased military spending, arguing that “Europe must take responsibility for its own security. We can no longer afford to rely on the goodwill of others.” The push for self-reliance has triggered a mix of support and criticism across the continent.
National Defense Strategies: A Deepening Divide
Germany, Europe’s largest economy, is expected to shoulder much of the financial burden. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government has already committed €100 billion (US$109.06 billion) to modernize the Bundeswehr, but further expansion faces political resistance.
Following the announcement of an additional €100 billion defense package in 2024, Scholz faced backlash from opposition leaders and sections of his own coalition, who expressed concerns over the impact on social welfare programs.
The Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung has warned that excessive defense spending could dampen economic growth, particularly amid inflationary pressures and stagnant wages.
Germany’s military readiness remains a key concern. A 2023 German Ministry of Defense audit revealed that only 30% of the country’s Leopard 2 tanks were combat-ready, underscoring significant logistical and maintenance challenges. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius acknowledged these shortcomings, stating, “We are not where we need to be. Decades of underfunding have left our armed forces in a vulnerable position.”
However, on March 18, German lawmakers finally voted to allow a huge increase in defense and infrastructure spending. The law will exempt spending on defense and security from Germany’s strict debt rules and create a €500 billion (US$547 billion) infrastructure fund.
France, led by Emmanuel Macron, has pledged to increase its defense budget to €413 billion (US$450.41 billion) between 2024 and 2030, up from €295 billion (US$321.72 billion) in the previous period. A significant portion of this increase will go toward modernizing France’s nuclear deterrent, expanding naval and aerial capabilities, and strengthening defense production.
At a March 2025 Paris conference, Macron stated, “France will lead by example, ensuring Europe’s defenses are not just a complement to NATO but a force in their own right.”
The UK, under Prime Minister Keir Starmer, pledged in January 2025 to raise defense spending to 3% of GDP by 2030, adding £100 billion (US$129.76 billion) over the decade. Poland, allocating 4.3% of GDP in 2024, has secured South Korean tanks and U.S. HIMARS systems, while Italy increased its 2024 budget by 8.5% to €28 billion (US$30.54 billion), prioritizing naval and cyber enhancements.
Eastern European nations, particularly Poland, have emerged as some of the most aggressive defense spenders. Warsaw has already surpassed NATO’s defense spending benchmark, committing 4.3% of GDP to military expansion in 2024. The Polish government has prioritized acquiring advanced weaponry, including South Korean K2 tanks and U.S.-made HIMARS rocket systems.
Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak stressed, “We cannot afford complacency. Poland will not be a second Ukraine.”
Italy has taken a more moderate approach, increasing its military budget by 8.5% in 2024, bringing total defense spending to approximately €28 billion (US$30.54 billion). The Italian government has emphasized naval expansion and cybersecurity, recognizing the growing importance of technological warfare.
Financing The Rearmament Of Europe
The European Commission has unveiled an ambitious proposal to borrow €150 billion (US$163.59 billion) to fund the continent’s military expansion. The initiative, modeled on previous COVID-19 recovery funding mechanisms, involves joint borrowing in the form of loans rather than grants. However, countries like Germany and the Netherlands have voiced strong opposition, fearing increased debt burdens.
The broader “REARM Europe” plan aims to mobilize €800 billion (US$872.47 billion) over four years, largely through increased national defense spending.
The European Commission has proposed temporarily relaxing fiscal limits under the Stability and Growth Pact, creating fiscal space of approximately €650 billion (US$ 708.88 billion). Yet, questions remain over how highly indebted nations such as France, Spain, and Italy will manage the increased financial burden.
Proposals for a new defense financing instrument have also surfaced, including the creation of a “rearmament bank.” This institution, backed by non-EU partners such as the U.S. and UK, would issue triple-A bonds to allow rapid investment in military projects without impacting national borrowing limits. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has warned that “fiscal prudence must be maintained, even in the face of growing security concerns.”
Russia’s Perspective & The Risk Of Escalation
From Moscow’s viewpoint, these developments confirm long-held suspicions. The Kremlin has long argued that NATO’s expansion and European militarization are direct threats to Russian security. In a recent speech, President Vladimir Putin stated, “Europe is arming itself not for defense but for aggression. We will respond accordingly.”
Russia has expanded its military production.
According to estimates by Bruegel, Russian troop numbers in Ukraine have reached approximately 700,000 by the end of 2024, more than double the initial invasion force. Moscow’s defense industry has ramped up production. In 2024 alone, it manufactured 1,550 tanks, 5,700 armored vehicles, and 1,800 long-range Lancet drones.
Reports from the Center for Strategic and International Studies indicate that Russia has stabilized its weapons production, with domestic factories operating at full capacity and new drone technology reducing dependence on Iranian imports.
Western analysts warn that a European arms race could push Russia to further escalate its military buildup, increasing the likelihood of a broader confrontation.
Diplomatic Alternative
Amid growing militarization, some European leaders have advocated for diplomatic engagement with Russia as a more sustainable approach. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán has emphasized the importance of dialogue in addressing tensions. Orbán has consistently pushed for negotiations, notably during his July 2024 visit to Moscow, where he discussed peace options for Ukraine.
Russia has, at various points, proposed initiatives centered on peace and security in Europe, often emphasizing its concerns about NATO’s expansion and Western influence near its borders.
For instance, in December 2021, Russia presented draft proposals to the United States and NATO, calling for guarantees to halt NATO’s enlargement, particularly in Ukraine and Georgia, and to limit military deployments in Eastern Europe.
As Europe embarks on one of its most ambitious defense overhauls in decades, the question remains: can the continent achieve military self-sufficiency without triggering greater instability? Balancing deterrence with diplomacy will be the defining challenge for European policymakers in the years ahead.
- Penned By: Mohd. Asif Khan, ET Desk
- Mail us at: editor (at) eurasiantimes.com
