Russia would descend into a “massive ethnic conflict” when Vladimir Putin’s regime collapses, according to the Russian separatist group ‘Atesh.’
Emerged just two years ago, Atesh has challenged Russia’s long-held stability, and its growing influence has sparked concerns over the prospect of civil war in Russia.
In an interview with the UK-based Daily Express, members of the group asserted that internal uprisings could play a crucial role in weakening Moscow’s grip.
An Atesh member disclosed their strategy, revealing that they are building alliances with other Tatar groups within Russia to spark an ethnic uprising against Putin’s regime.
“We see great potential in this,” the group stated. “Weakening Russia through internal uprisings could be a crucial step toward ending its aggression.”
The group further projected a turbulent post-Putin era, claiming, “We are confident that after the defeat of the Putin regime and the death of the dictator himself, massive ethnic conflicts will begin in Russia.”
What Is The Atesh Group?
The word Atesh, meaning “fire” in Tatar—a Turkic language—symbolizes the group’s fierce resistance against Russian control. Tatars, a Turkic-speaking ethnic group, are native to regions in Central Asia and Eastern Europe. Historically, European scholars used the term to describe non-Russian peoples.
Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, long before launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. While ethnic Russians form the majority in Crimea, the peninsula remains home to significant Ukrainian and Crimean Tatar minorities.
In response to Russia’s aggression in 2022 against Ukraine, Atesh emerged as an underground resistance network, primarily comprising Crimean Tatars and Ukrainians.
The group claims to have grown from a small band of fighters into a movement with “thousands” of members as of now.
Russia’s demographic landscape is diverse, with over 190 nationalities. The Tatars, numbering over 5.3 million as per the 2010 census, are the largest Turkic ethnic group in Russia. Alongside the Bashkirs, they primarily reside in the autonomous republics of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan, where national movements for independence from Moscow have been gaining traction.
Operating in occupied territories, Atesh engages in sabotage, intelligence gathering, and aiding pro-Ukrainian resistance forces. Their commitment is evident in an oath posted on Telegram in September 2022, declaring: “I swear by my blood and my soul to be faithful to the Atesh movement and fight for the Ukrainian state.”
While the Kremlin has labeled Atesh a terrorist organization and banned it, the group continues to challenge Russian authority from the shadows.
Atesh’s Strategic Role In Resistance
According to a BBC report, the group specializes in gathering vital intelligence on Russian military movements, primarily in Crimea, but also in other occupied regions and even within Russia’s borders.
Atesh has emerged as a key player in Ukraine’s resistance efforts, notably carrying out the attack on Russian military forces in September 2023.
Their intelligence played a crucial role in guiding high-profile Ukrainian strikes in Crimea, including attacks on the Russian landing ship Minsk, the submarine Rostov-on-Don, and a devastating assault on the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.
Atesh provided detailed information on air defenses, military depots, bases, and troop movements, with some operatives conducting surveillance for weeks. These efforts resulted in significant Russian officer fatalities.
Atesh’s Recent Operations
In October 2024, ‘Kyiv Post’ reported that Atesh Partisans had infiltrated Russian military ranks. With Russia beginning to draft Ukrainians from newly occupied territories, Atesh agents seized the opportunity, volunteering at military enlistment offices. This strategy allowed them to operate within Russian military units, gathering crucial intelligence for future operations.
In November 2024, Atesh claimed responsibility for a sabotage operation targeting a key railway in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The attack disabled electrical equipment, disrupting Russia’s military supply lines. An operative set fire to a relay cabinet near Tokmak, a city under Russian control, intensifying the logistical challenges for Russian forces.
By December 2024, Atesh escalated its operations even further, infiltrating a Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) facility and sharing photos of the secretive site on social media. The images, reportedly taken at the Danilovo military airbase in the Republic of Mari El, showed multi-purpose helicopters and transport aircraft stationed there. Atesh noted a ‘lack of qualified personnel at the base,’ adding to Russia’s growing vulnerabilities.
Later that month, Atesh claimed a disturbing rise in suicides among Russian soldiers in the occupied Kherson region. The deaths attributed to Russian soldiers from the Dnepr group reflect increasing morale issues among the troops stationed in this contested area, further undermining Russia’s military position.
Atesh’s Expanding Network And Influence
In the last two years, Atesh has become the most expansive partisan group active in Russia and Ukraine. The movement’s reach now extends from the Baltic shores of Kaliningrad to the frozen expanses of Siberia, encompassing major urban centers like Moscow and Saint Petersburg.
Furthermore, Atesh claims strong backing from Turkic and Caucasian communities within Russia, adding weight to their mission. “We feel the support of the Turkic and Caucasian peoples in Russia,” they state.
“With their backing, we have the resources to strike at Putin’s war machine.” This growing support network enhances Atesh’s capabilities, positioning the group as a formidable resistance force in the ongoing conflict.
According to a Daily Express report, a member of Atesh emphasized the group’s increasing resonance across Russia’s diverse ethnic communities: “The peoples of the Russian Federation are under constant pressure, often losing their identity and culture,” they stated.
“This is why many representatives of national minorities in Russia join our movement. With us, they find a platform to dismantle the so-called ‘Russian Federation’ and fight for a better future for their peoples.”
With a goal of expanding regional cells and intensifying attacks within Russia, the group aims to destabilize the Kremlin’s authority from within.
Perhaps most threatening to Moscow is Atesh’s ability to tap into the simmering discontent among Russia’s ethnic minorities.
The Art Of Infiltration
Atesh’s rising influence has cast a shadow over Russia’s future stability, sparking debate about the potential for internal unrest.
Despite Atesh’s growing impact, it is unclear whether it can ignite a full-scale revolt or ethnic conflict within Russia. Facing a formidable enemy like Russia, Atesh’s operations remain largely confined to guerrilla tactics and covert actions.
Yet, their resolve to destabilize Russia from within persists. Through ongoing sabotage and subversive operations, Atesh continues its fight to weaken the Kremlin.
- Shubhangi Palve is a defense and aerospace journalist. Before joining the EurAsian Times, she worked for ET Prime. She has over 15 years of extensive experience in the media industry, spanning print, electronic, and online domains.
- Contact the author at shubhapalve (at) gmail.com
