As the US Air Force (USAF) struggles with questions over Stealth Bomber B-21 Raiders’ force size, the head of Air Force Global Strike Command (AFGSC), General Thomas A. Bussiere, has said that based on the B-1 and B-2 bombers’ age, and the advancing strategic capabilities of Russia and China, the US must have an open discussion about the required numbers and speed of delivery of the B-21.
Should the USAF want more Raiders and more quickly, it would be possible to scale up production within current facilities. USAF has been considering a larger B-21 force with Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA), the “Loyal Wingman,” for new-generation combat.
In the past, the USAF has been on record and testified before Congress that a fleet of 220 bombers would be needed to meet requirements. The USAF’s publicly stated plan has long been to buy at least 100 Raiders.
However, the USAF must re-evaluate because of the rapidly changing security environment and the “exquisite” capabilities of the stealth bomber. There is also a debate about the status and capabilities of the sixth-generation Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) crewed fighter.
Considering the current plan to retain 75 upgraded B-52Js, the reassessed numbers for B-21s are a fleet of 145. The AFGSC Commander thinks that “the most efficient way” of expanding production would likely involve “opening up another production complex” with Northrop Grumman.
Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider
Northrop Grumman’s B-21, a part of the Long Range Strike Bomber (LRS-B) program, is a flying-wing design, stealth, subsonic, intercontinental strategic bomber that can deliver conventional and thermonuclear weapons. It has a maximum take-off weight of 80,000 Kg and can carry a weapon load of 9,100 kg.
It is the most advanced aircraft built to date and a very significant operational development for the USAF. The first flight of a B-21 occurred on 10 November 2023.
Five more pre-production aircraft are in various stages of building, and work has already begun on the initial series of production aircraft. Digital engineering and open architecture design have helped with quicker evaluation. The flight test program is reportedly proceeding well. The tempo of flight testing using the initial pre-production Raider had increased to two weekly flights.
The company was expecting to get another B-21 low-rate production contract by the end of the year, but this may be postponed as a new government is set to take over in the US. The 100-aircraft force is likely to be built by mid-2030 only.
A key known requirement for the B-21 has been the ability to operate in a pilot-optional mode. Advances in uncrewed aviation, artificial intelligence (AI), and machine learning have particularly supported this. This happened even before Elon Musk aired his views that “manned aircraft days are numbered.”
B-21 Features For Air Dominance
With the Raider taking part in the air dominance role, having long-range and a much bigger ammunition magazine could be great for Pacific Ocean operations. As electricity-guzzling directed energy weapons (DEW) evolve, the bomber will have the advantage of greater real estate for power generation. The bomber will be able to carry many more Air-to-Air Missiles (AAM).
One estimate is that 60 B-21s could deplete the entire US store of AGM-158 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile JASSMs in ten sorties. Of course, for the B-21 to support the Air dominance role, it may have to be tweaked into a dedicated version.
The B-21 Cost Dynamics
At the time of the Raider’s public rollout in December 2022, the overall program cost was pegged at US$203 billion in Fiscal Year 2019 dollars, based on a fleet of 100 bombers. Though the exact current estimated unit cost of the Bomber is unknown, the Company insists it is under the USAF’s target of US$550 million in FY 2010 dollars, or around US$793 million when adjusted for inflation.
Earlier in the year, Northrop Grumman had indicated a loss of nearly US$1.2 billion on the B-21 program. The company expected to take a financial hit on each of the first five low-rate production aircraft. This could be made up in subsequent orders.
The overall cost of the first five low-rate production aircraft decreased from the USAF budgeted US$19.1 billion in 2023 to the US$13.8 billion budgeted for 2025. Full-scale production costs should come down further.
No Urgency For B-21 Numbers Decision
One school of thought is that 100 aircraft is a good starting target number. The decision to increase the Raider’s procurement won’t be needed for another decade, at which point there will be much better clarity or better alternatives. Also, there are no foreign takers to the program, nor has it been offered to any country.
Next Generation Air Dominance
The NGAD is the USAF’s sixth-generation air superiority initiative to field a “family of systems” to succeed the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor.
A crewed fighter aircraft is the centerpiece program of NGAD and has been referred to as the Penetrating Counter-Air (PCA) platform. It is to be supported by CCA through manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T).
The NGAD originates from DARPA’s Air Dominance Initiative study in 2014 and is expected to field the new fighter aircraft in the 2030s. While originally pitched as a joint Air Force-Navy program, the two services established separate offices and programs.
Although they have the same background, the USAF’s NGAD effort is distinct from the Navy’s F/A-XX. But both are manned fighters. In 2023, the Air Force projected approximately 200 manned NGAD fighters.
In the FY2023 budget request, the USAF allocated a total of US$1.66 billion for the NGAD program. Further financial commitments are projected, with an estimated additional expenditure of US$11.7 billion earmarked for the years spanning from FY2024 to FY2027.
Questions About NGAD
Before questions about its future emerged in early 2024, the proposed NGAD combat jet had already shaped into a much more capable but costly aircraft than the F-22. Also, it must be remembered that there will be a significant force of F-35s and F-15EX. The F-22s are still operational. Then, there are Bombers and Cargo aircraft that can work well with CCA.
The USAF is now re-examining the very core of its requirements for the new sixth-generation stealth combat jet as part of its ongoing review of all the elements of the larger NGAD initiative. There will be a need to achieve air superiority in a highly contested environment.
The service is also reassessing the broader questions about the full mix of capabilities it expects to use to achieve air superiority in the future. Is the currently conceptualized NGAD combat jet best optimized to work with the USAF’s planned future fleets of CCA drones? It is discussing whether or not it will ultimately require a pilot.
The USAF is also facing budgetary pressures. As projected in the past, a single NGAD combat jet could cost roughly US$250 million, which is three times that of a stealthy F-35.
How Can NGAD Costs Be Cut?
With cost being the prime concern behind the current NGAD review, it’s likely to be at the forefront again when the Trump administration determines the program’s future. NGAD’s status was bulletproof at one stage, but now there is a significant prospect of cutting back or even canceling the project altogether.
Can the cost come down to around US$100 million? Yes, if the expensive radar, infrared search and track systems (IRST), electronic support measures, and electronic warfare capabilities are dispersed to modular CCAs and other platforms in their vicinity.
Some of these functions could even be provided by space-based platforms/constellations and data linked to the aircraft in real-time. Such an approach may become important as enemy air defense capabilities continue to evolve.
Laser weaponry envisioned as a core feature of NGAD adds weight, volume, and complexity; however, power generation and thermal management needed to field even a defensive laser system would be significant. Can these requirements be reviewed?
By relaxing some of the breakthrough performance requirements, the airframe could drop in complexity and cost fairly dramatically. Letting go of NGAD’s next-generation engine initiative, the Next Generation Adaptive Propulsion (NGAP) program, and using a derivative of an existing power plant, and a single one instead of two, would bring costs down further.
Similarly, NGAD may also reduce weapons payload as more will be carried by CCA. Now that the USAF is increasingly aggressive about fielding a stealthy tanker, the on-board fuel requirement may also be reduced.
Of course, some may ask, why not just upgrade the F-35? But then a tailless new-generation stealth airframe could really be a primary feature. So a new airframe that is smaller, lighter, less armed, less independent, and shorter-ranged concept that still puts a premium on low-observable technologies could be desirable.
It would still rely on a ‘family of systems’ made up of unique technologies and platforms to complete its future missions successfully. Even with this big cocktail of measures to drastically reduce the unit price, could the NGAD fighter cost really be dropped to around US$100 million?
It remains an open-ended question.
B-21 & NGAD Numbers Debate
Any force-level review must examine the B-21 and the NGAD by comparing their mission capability. The B-21 will be much more than a long-range bomber and have ‘air dominance’ platform capabilities. The NGAD and B-21 will both have the CCA embedded. Both programs are moving nearly in parallel and competing for funding.
The case for B-21 is that a large aircraft, like a bomber, can have many more sensors and more crew members to be able to manage things like CCAs. The long-range bombers have considerably greater flight time and can thus take on more CCA or swarm drones.
CCAs have significant air-to-air missions, and therefore, the B-21 needs them all the more. Considering the long range of the bomber, having CCAs of that range and getting them airborne from closer bases will be complex. The CCAs can also be dropped from B-52s and out of B-21 cargo bays.
Once the stealth tanker program gets a go-ahead, it could refuel the CCA en route. Alternatively, CCAs would refuel CCAs. CCAs are important, and dedicated CCAs may have to evolve for the Bomber force. The dedicated drone development will also decide the B-21 force size. Currently, the choice for B-21 is between 100 and 145 platforms. For NGAD, it is 200 or no aircraft at all.
To Summarise
B-21 is a powerful platform and a huge program. Production models are being built. The USAF calls it the agile strategic deterrent that will deliver a decisive response and has recently confirmed plans to field Raider squadrons at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri and Dyess Air Force Base in Texas, in addition to Ellsworth Air Force Base in South Dakota that is set to be the home of the first operational B-21s.
The NGAD fighter jet’s future is currently a little open-ended amid a serious re-examination of its capability vs cost analysis. Northrop Grumman, the developer of the B-21, had voluntarily withdrawn from the competition to develop the NGAD jet, at least as a prime contractor, last year.
With The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) being put in place by the incoming Trump Administration, a lot more will evolve in the coming six months.
The CCA is a clear emerging feature of the future. There is reasonable clarity on the B-21 program. NGAD is still a mixed bag, but it is taking shape.
The USAF has also committed to the Sentinel ICBM (LGM-35A) program. Nuclear deterrence is the No. 1 priority mission of the Department of Defence (DoD). In July 2024, DoD put total program acquisition costs for the Sentinel program at US$140.9 billion. All these programs are competing for funds. DOGE is committed to US$2 Trillion in savings.
If NGAD is put on the slow burner, the B-21 numbers will increase. Ultimately, a modern fighter will still be required in the long run. A key known requirement for the B-21 is the ability to operate in a pilot-optional mode.
Lockheed and Boeing are the two contractors still competing for the NGAD contract. The USAF has said in the past that it hopes to begin fielding these new 6th-generation stealth fighters before 2030.
Highly autonomous CCA drones would be linked directly to NGAD. The future of the sixth-generation fighter is also linked to the next-generation tankers. All operations will be in the context of Agile Combat Employment (ACE).
Pending the final decision, USAF is extending the current contracts for NGAD to mature designs/systems further while ensuring the industry teams remain intact. The service has requested that the industry competitors update their proposals to account for the delays resulting from the current pause. Around 200 NGAD fighters were originally said to have been the target force size.
It is well known that the B-21 program strategically leveraged a mix of mature and semi-mature subsystems to speed development and keep costs on track. The USAF is clearly keen on this practice, considering the B-21’s success thus far.
Will NGAD play second fiddle to B-21? B-21s will reach the 100 production mark only around 2035, so the decision to increase numbers can still be taken a few years down the line.
Clarity on NGAD must evolve much earlier. Can B-21s take on the air dominance mission against China in the Western Pacific? This will remain the main discussion point. The reduced cost of the B-21 and the capability to carry a much larger arsenal for a longer range and duration is a big plus for the Raider.
Can the USAF really stay ahead of China by going the much cheaper route for its crewed NGAD component? Or is it better, as Elon Musk says, to take the uncrewed technology route and divert funds away from a crewed NGAD aircraft altogether?
USAF will have to make some very tough decisions about its priority programs as it wrestles with fiscal realities. Time to Wait and Watch.
- Air Marshal Anil Chopra (Retired) is an Indian Air Force veteran fighter test pilot and former Director-General of the Center for Air Power Studies in New Delhi. He has been decorated with gallantry and distinguished service medals while serving in the IAF for 40 years.
- He tweets @Chopsyturvey
- Follow EurAsian Times on Google News
