With a mysterious Chinese fighter jet coming on the horizon, the US is looking to accelerate the B-21 ‘Raider’ production; however, financial constraints are a big impediment.
The present US Air Force (USAF) fleet is tilted heavily towards the short-range fighter jets, and more B-21 bombers can help restore the balance. Designed to carry a 20,000-lb payload, the B-21s’ stealth and advanced systems aim to counter rising threats like China’s H-20 bomber.
In an interview with Air & Space Forces Magazine, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said that it makes sense to accelerate the production of B-21 bombers in the coming five years to prepare the US for conflict. The outgoing USAF Secretary also suggested that while it might be unrealistic to shorten the acquisition time drastically, there can be selective stockpiling of long-lead parts and materials to help with the wartime surge production.
“If it’s affordable, that would make some sense…. There’s only so much we can do about it [the production rate] in the near term, and the near term, for me, is the five-year plan,” Kendall said. “I have talked to the industry about the possibility of higher rates than we currently have planned.”
The production rate of B-21 is not known to the public, but it is speculated to be less than seven aircraft per year. The Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider is part of the Long-Range Strike Bomber Program. It is supposed to be a stealth intercontinental strategic bomber capable of delivering conventional and thermonuclear weapons.
B-21 has been called a sixth-generation aircraft. The B-21 design is near the carbon copy of B-2, a typical wing design with extremely high stealth qualities. It will be a nuclear-capable bomber equipped with virtually all modern precision-guided munitions. It can reach any corner of the globe with mid-air refueling.
Starting with a low-rate production phase of 21 units, the Air Force has committed to building at least 100 Raiders to replace aging B-1B Lancers and B-2 Spirits, supported by upgraded B-52J Stratofortresses.
The USAF has learned from its past mistake of keeping the bomber fleet too small, making it too expensive. The B-2 Spirit was planned to be a fleet of 132 aircraft. However, the US Congress terminated the program after only 21 had been built. This resulted in the cost per aircraft climbing to nearly US$2 billion.
The B-21 Raider entered its Low-Rate Initial Production in January 2024, but the initial first five lots will be just 21 aircraft. The next generation program is then expected to produce over 100 bombers, though there has been some clamor to double the numbers.
Outgoing Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment William LaPlante has said that the B-21 was structured to be a low-rate program to safeguard it against budget cuts. However, Air Force Global Strike Command leaders and others have suggested that building more than the planned 100 airplanes is necessary to achieve needed sortie rates in a future major war.
The US is just one of three nations, along with China and Russia, that continues to operate long-range bombers, which are a key component of the nuclear triad. The USAF has about 140 bombers in its fleet, including the B-1, the B-2, and the B-52. The USAF has planned to retire the Rockwell B-1B Lancer and B-2 Spirit when the B-21 Raider enters service.
The 76 upgraded Boeing B-52 Stratofortress fleet will continue operation after being redesignated as the B-52 Js as each bomber receives new engines and other enhancements.
The Air Force’s publicly stated goal is to operationalize B-21s before 2030, with Ellsworth Air Force Base in South Dakota slated to be the first base to host combat-coded Raider squadrons. Additional B-21 squadrons are set to be based at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, the current home of the B-2 Spirit bomber fleet, and Dyess Air Force Base in Texas.
Kendall did not commit on the final number of B-21s required for the USAF. But he said the Air Force’s force structure has been “very heavily weighted toward relatively short-ranged fighters” for some time, and putting more emphasis on buying bombers could be “worthwhile” because “we’re somewhat out of balance right now.”
“It will take a while to acquire more B-21s even if you increase the rate,” Kendall said. Even if that happens, “you can hang on to some of the existing bombers a little bit longer than we currently have planned” to preserve long-range strike capacity.
“Making that transition is going to take a little bit of time, but I do think it’s well worth considering as we look to the future and the flexibility you have with the bomber force.”
New questions about the Air Force’s expected B-21 fleet size had emerged in the beginning of 2024. Gen. David Allvin, the service’s Chief of Staff, caused a stir at a Congressional hearing in April when he declined to commit to buying more than 100 Raiders and talked about his service already looking to future capabilities to augment the bombers. A key known requirement for the B-21 already is the ability to operate in a pilot-optional mode.
Can China, Russia Match USAF Bomber Fleet?
One of the major factors pushing to operationalize the B-21 Raider sooner is China’s 6th generation strategic bomber program – the H-20. When it becomes a reality, the bomber will be China’s first long-range stealth bomber.
Meanwhile, the current PLAAF bomber fleet, according to the World Directory of Modern Military Aircraft (WDMMA), consists of 120 H-6 bombers. The H-6 is said to be a license-built copy of the Soviet-era Tupolev Tu-16 (NATO reporting name ‘Badger’). The total bomber strength of China is 180. So far, China’s bomber fleet neither has the numbers nor the firepower to match USAF’s bomber fleet.
The USAF has not committed to ordering more B-21s but has been amiable to let the Raider have a larger role in the plans for future air dominance.
