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China Ready For A Two Front War With US In South China Sea & India-China Border?

India-China Border Clash: Chinese experts acknowledge that Indian Army is expecting a prolonged standoff in the China-India border region but suggest that the US coming to Indian aid would be a fantasy.

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India-China border clash seems to be prolonging and possibilities of a full-scale war are looming. The US has extended its support to India over its border conflicts with China and this has expectedly perturbed Beijing.

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Chinese experts acknowledge that Indian Army is expecting a prolonged standoff in the China-India border region. They also boost that the Chinese army battle-ready on all the fronts and has accelerated military drills in the South China Sea, Taiwan and India-China border.

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Recently, Indian Army chief M M Naravane briefed PM Narendra Modi and Defense Minister Rajnath Singh on the situation on the India-China border and is believed to have conveyed to expect a prolonged standoff between Indian Army and PLA Troops.

Declaring that China has stationed Su-30 fighter jets and H-6 bombers near the border, India, in retaliation, deployed the Akash air defence system in Ladakh as per reports in media.

Chinese experts claim that the Indian moves came after US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the US is decreasing troop numbers in Germany and deploying them to other places to “face the Chinese threat to India and Southeast Asian nations.”

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Chinese experts state that Washington had long been dreaming to play India as a card in its strategy to counter and contain China, and it has now got the chance to use Indian hardliners as fodder as China-India border tensions escalate.

However,  experts claim that it is wishful thinking that the US would come to Indian aid and counter Chinese troops in the South China Sea so that New Delhi could intensify skirmishes and pin down China at the border.

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This is simply a misconception of the Indian Army as the US will only take advantage of the situation to contain China and will never station their own troops on the border. This “strategic surrounding” of China is very weak, Wei Dongxu, a Beijing-based military expert, told the Global Times.

Wei says – the PLA troops have high war readiness in all fronts, but despite India-China border tensions and confrontations in the South China Sea, the risk of a full-scale war remains very low thanks to the PLA’s strategic deterrence.

The report by Chinese state media sates – defence drills will be held in the South China Sea from Wednesday to July 5, according to a notice released by China’s Maritime Safety Administration.

In the direction of Taiwan, PLA military aircraft approached the island at least eight times in June, with many missions speculatively aimed at intercepting US jets flying near the island. The PLA 73rd Group Army recently held live-fire amphibious landing exercises using heavy weapons and equipment in East China’s Fujian Province.

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All these military drills did not prevent PLA exercises near the China-India border, as a joint brigade attached to the PLA 74th Group Army were recently mobilized for 24 hours artillery strike drills.

The report concludes by saying that the US will not get involved in a full-scale war with China and India will only be used as a cannon fodder between the clash of two giants, while also subtly asserting that Beijing is ready on all fronts to counter the enemies.

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US outraged with India for acquiring Russian jets over American F-21s

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India recently signed a 2.43-billion deal with Russia for the acquisition of MiG-29s and Sukhoi Su-30MKIs while overlooking American fighter jets including F-21s that the US claimed was a lethal combination of stealth F-35 and F-22 jets.

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Earlier, as EurAsian Times reported, US aerospace giant Lockheed Martin also said that it will not sell its newly rolled out F-21 fighter jet to any other country if India places an order for 114 planes, an offer aimed to counter other US, European or Russian jets.

Recently, amid escalating border tensions between India and China, New Delhi approved to spend billions to purchase Russian fighter jets. Moscow will sell New Delhi 33 new fighter aircraft including 12 Su-30MKIs and 21 MiG-29s along with up-gradation of 59 MiG-29s.

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The MiG 29 procurement and up-gradation from Russia is estimated to cost Rs 7418 cr, the Su-30 MKI will be procured from HAL at an estimated cost of Rs 10,730 cr.

Rahul Bedi a senior journalist and defence analyst write – the piddling issue of the US potentially sanctioning India under CAATSA for acquiring Russian military hardware including fighter jets to meet its urgent needs simply refuses to go away.

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In a statement to the UK’s Jane’s Defence Weekly after India declared its intent to procure Russian fighter jets, a senior US State Department official ominously announced that India was not ‘safeguarded’ from penalties under CAATSA.

Bedi quotes the US defence official – We urge all of our allies and partners to forego (defence) deals with Russia that risk triggering sanctions under CAATSA.

He further added that though the US could not “prejudge whether a specific transaction would result in sanctions, it was important to note that CAATSA did not have any blanket or country-specific waiver provision.

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There are stringent guidelines for considering a waiver, and each deal is assessed on a case-by-case basis,” Jane’s quoted the US official as saying. US Secretary of State (Mike Pompeo) has not made any judgment regarding the significance of any deal (with Russia) involving India, he added, but did not elaborate.

Bedi writes that the veiled CAATSA threat by the US, targeted at India for purchasing Russian fighter jets seems to be more a commercial bludgeon than a lawful effort to punish a politically intrusive Russia.

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Accordingly, it also leads to the clear picture that the CAATSA stems largely from US’ resentment with the Indian government for not acquiring US fighters like Lockheed Martin’s F-21 and instead opting for Russian Su-30MKIs and 21 MiG-29s.

The US has long been craving to sell the customized F-21s to India which was unveiled at Aero India 2019 in Bangalore.

Bedia writes that little more than a re-branded F-16 that dates back to the mid-1970s, it makes great economic sense from the US perspective to ‘sell’ India to licence-build this fighter for the IAF to meet its requirement for an additional 114 combat aircraft to make up for the depleted fighter squadrons.

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With F-16s being phased out of the US Air Force, and their plant at Fort Worth in Texas closing down, moving the ageing fighters’ manufacturing unit to India, would keep the line going for few more years, while also providing employment opportunities in the US under Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ drive.

India going with Russia and French fighter jets has exasperated the US and could well be the motive behind its veiled threat of invoking CAATSA against India.

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US threatens Russia with consequences for paying bounties to Taliban in Afghanistan

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The US has threatened to respond if the Pentagon confirms reports of Russian bounties to kill US soldiers in Afghanistan. While Russia denies its involvement in any such operation, US-Russia relations could further deteriorate if the reports are confirmed.

The Pentagon is investigating reports of Russian bounties to kill US soldiers in Afghanistan and if found to be true, the US has promised to retaliate. Moscow on the hand has denied involvement in any such operation.

Speaking in front of the House armed services committee, General Mark Milley, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff said that the Pentagon was committed to discovering whether Russian military intelligence had paid the Taliban for attacks on American soldiers in Afghanistan.

“We’re going to get to the bottom of this bounty thing. If there are bounties, I’m an outraged general, just like every one of us in uniform is,” Milley said. “That’s a real big deal. We don’t have that level of fidelity yet, but we’re still looking.”

Despite vowing to retaliate, Milley suggested that the US may not be responding to the reports as robustly as necessary in non-military ways. The 62-year old admitted that the US was perhaps not doing enough.

The issue is at the strategic level,” he said. “Is there diplomatic, and informational and economic … sanctions, are there démarches, are there phone calls, is there pressure, those sorts of things. And I can tell you that some of that is done.’’

Mark Esper, the defence secretary, was also testifying to the House armed services committee. Esper said that the reports did not come from any of the nine of the total of 17 US intelligence agencies under Pentagon’s authority, implying the information leaked to the press in recent weeks came from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) or another civilian agency.

The reports first came to notice in January and were ignored because they lacked credibility. It was only in February that Gen Kenneth McKenzie and the defence secretary became aware of them in February.

Milley confirmed that the investigation is not over and promised to get to the bottom of the situation. President Donald Trump has insisted he was not briefed on the Russian bounties.

Russia Denies Involvement

While American intelligence agencies work to confirm reports, Russia denies the existence or its involvement in any such operation. Moscow says the U.S. is trying to portray Moscow as an all-purpose bogeyman.

“I would like to say officially that these allegations, distributed by the media, are downright lies. No concrete evidence has been presented,” Russia’s ambassador to the U.S., Anatoly Antonov, said this week in an online forum with the Center for the National Interest.

Other Russian officials point out that Moscow would have little incentive to establish such a program given the high risk of getting caught.

According to NPR, the Russian military intelligence known as the GRU is believed to be behind the suspected Russian bounty program in Afghanistan. The GRU has an aggressive and high-risk culture and is hence preferred by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The New York Times was the media outlet to report about Russia secretly offering money to the Taliban in exchange for killing American soldiers in Afghanistan.

If confirmed, it would be the first time the Russian spy unit was known to have orchestrated attacks on Western troops and could have a severe impact on Washington-Moscow relations.

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Americas

Trump Would Not Have Supported India In A Possible War Against China – US NSA

Now that India-China border clash has been somewhat deflated, former US NSA said – I’m not sure how much he (Donald Trump) understands the significance of the (India-China) border clash.

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As India has been aggressively confronting China with the hope of finding support from Washington, former US national security advisor (NSA) – John Bolton in an exclusive interview said there is no guarantee that Trump administration would have backed New Delhi in a possible India-China border clash.

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In an exclusive interview with Wion News, Bolton said – I’m not sure how much he (Donald Trump) understands the significance of the (India-China) border clash. I don’t think he (Trump) knows anything about the history of these clashes over the decades between India and China. He (Trump) may have been briefed on it, but history doesn’t really stick with him.”

 

 

Bolton further said – I don’t know which way he would go and I don’t think he knows either. I think Trump views the geostrategic ties with China for instance exclusively through the prism of trade. And trade is important because China has lifted intellectual property from the US and other nations, engaged in powerful technology transfers and it forms a major part of their economic success and therefore military power. And that’s really how far it goes.”

I don’t know what Donald Trump will do after the US presidential elections once the guard rail is removed. He’ll be back. He won’t be criticising China for putting Uyghurs in concentration camps or repressing Hong Kong. He will be back to the big China trade deal. So, if issues were to worsen between India and China, I’m not sure where he would come down,” he added.

On being questioned – if things were to escalate between India and China there is no guarantee that Donald Trump will back India against China?” Bolton said – that is correct.” I think his instinct for the next four months (till the elections) is to do anything that could hinder his election campaign. So what he would want is quiet along the border whether it benefits China or India.

Earlier, as EurAsian Times reported citing a Chinese expert for the Global Times – China has no plan to squeeze India’s strategic space and rather aims to explore ways for peaceful co-existence.  However, the author claims that this is endangered by the strategic objectives of some Indians who want to contain China with the help of the US.

He blames the Indian media for fanning the flames between India and China. Tensions are provoked by this pressure and hence there is relentless support for India to join the US, Australia and Japan to contain China, wrote the author.

The author blames the US for destabilizing the India-China ties and claims that the US has dangerously interfered in China-India relations, such as labelling India “the world’s biggest democracy,” talking up the “Mumbai model,” and unscrupulously showing partiality towards New Delhi amid the border dispute.

The US, in particular, is fascinating India to counterbalance China and the idea of the Indo-Pacific Strategy is turning into a reality. He says that Indian elites are keen towards working with the US because they believe that by joining the US camp to contain China, they are now a world power on equal footing.

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