In a striking statement that could exacerbate tensions between Taiwan and China, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te has called into question the justification behind China’s assertions regarding Taiwan. He urged Beijing to focus on reclaiming lands that were relinquished to Russia if its genuine objective is to restore territorial integrity.
Speaking in a televised interview aired on September 1, Lai pointed to the 1858 Treaty of Aigun, a historic agreement in which the Qing dynasty of China ceded a vast region of what is now Russia’s Far East to the Russian Empire.
The treaty, later ratified in the 1860 Convention of Peking, is one of several “unequal” treaties China signed under duress with foreign powers in the 19th century.
“China’s intention to attack and annex Taiwan is not because of what any one person or political party in Taiwan says or does. It is not for the sake of territorial integrity that China wants to annex Taiwan,” Lai remarked.
He added, “If it is for the sake of territorial integrity, why doesn’t it take back the lands occupied by Russia that were signed over in the Treaty of Aigun? Russia is now at its weakest, right?”
Lai observed that the absence of efforts to reclaim these territories indicates that Beijing’s intentions concerning Taiwan are not about historical borders but rather pertain to an entirely different agenda.
China has long viewed Taiwan as a breakaway province and an inherent part of its territory despite the island’s democratic and independent governance.
China maintains that Taiwan has been a part of Chinese territory since ancient times. After the Qing dynasty was forced to cede Taiwan to Japan in 1895, the island was returned to the Republic of China in 1945, following Japan’s defeat in World War II.
Four years later, the Republic of China (ROC) government retreated to Taiwan after losing the Chinese Civil War to the Communists. The Chinese government has never ruled out the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control, a stance that has led to tensions between the two sides.
Taiwan’s government, however, rejects these claims, asserting that the island’s future should be decided solely by its people.
Lai argued that Beijing’s claims over Taiwan are not driven by concerns over territorial integrity. He concluded that China’s real goal is not simply to reunify with Taiwan but to alter the rules-based international order to achieve regional and global hegemony.
“It wants to achieve hegemony in the international area, in the Western Pacific – that is its real aim,” he said.
Taiwan: China’s Primary Target
In recent years, China has significantly expanded its territorial ambitions, leading to heightened fears of conflict in various parts of Asia. This assertive stance is reflected in its growing military activities along disputed borders with India, increased control over the South China Sea, and ongoing tensions with Japan over contested islands.
Despite these broader territorial interests, Taiwan remains the main target of China’s strategic ambitions. Even as the Taiwanese President has challenged China to address historical land claims with Russia first, it is widely acknowledged that Beijing’s primary focus remains on bringing Taiwan under its control.
Beijing has already increased its military presence near Taiwan, with US officials frequently cautioning that China could invade the island by 2027. Chinese officials and researchers have also openly stated their intentions to prioritize an invasion of Taiwan.
In 2013, China News Service, the second-largest state-run media outlet in China, published an article asserting that despite the relative stability across the Taiwan Strait, any expectation for a peaceful resolution from Taiwan’s leadership — be it the Chinese Nationalist Party or the Democratic Progressive Party — was unrealistic.
The article suggested that a referendum should be held in Taiwan to decide on peaceful unification or unification by force, implying that the likely outcome would be conflict.
It further argued that since Taiwan is expected to resist unification efforts, military action remained the only feasible option. This proposed conflict would represent the first modern war experienced by the People’s Republic of China since its founding.
Last month, another piece by researchers at Xiamen University suggested that Beijing should prepare a “shadow government” to enable a swift “regime change” in Taipei if China and Taiwan move toward what Beijing calls “reunification”.
Territorial Dispute Between China & Russia
While these articles emphasize that Taiwan is China’s primary focus in its bid to reclaim territories lost during the Opium War of 1840-42, this does not imply that Beijing has abandoned the idea of reclaiming “lost territories” from Russia.
Despite the much-publicized “no limits” partnership between Beijing and Moscow, the two nations share a complex and troubled history as neighbors. The Sino-Russian border, the sixth-longest in the world, remains plagued by historical issues.
In 1969, a clash between Soviet and Chinese troops over Damansky Island—a small piece of land in the Ussuri River along the border—caught the eye of US diplomat Henry Kissinger.
He concluded that if a Sino-Soviet war were to break out, the US would likely side with China. As Kissinger later reflected in his memoirs, this was “a case of mistaken analysis leading to a correct judgment.”
Kissinger’s secret visit to Beijing in 1971, a masterstroke of Cold War diplomacy that led to the unexpected rapprochement between the US and China, contributed to the eventual collapse of the Soviet Union and significantly influenced the course of global politics.
In 1991, as the Soviet Union was dissolving, it peacefully relinquished its claims on Damansky Island to China, which the Chinese now call Zhenbao Island.
China to Strike Russia When It’s Vulnerable?
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the partnership between the two nations strengthened considerably, prompting many observers to speculate that the countries would avoid conflict over territory and instead present a united front against Western powers.
Despite this strengthened alliance, China has not hesitated to assert its territorial ambitions. On August 28, 2023, China’s Ministry of Natural Resources released a new “standard map” that included Taiwan and various maritime zones claimed by the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, Indonesia, and Malaysia.
The map also added a tenth dash to its South China Sea claims and depicted Aksai Chin (claimed by India, controlled by China) and Arunachal Pradesh (claimed by China, controlled by India)) as Chinese territories. Notably, it included the entire Bolshoy Ussuriysky Island, which is partly Russian territory.
This action was unexpected, considering that the Sino-Russian border had been distinctly established in 2005 when the two nations designated Bolshoy Ussuriysky Island to be divided.
China’s decision to create a dispute over the island was also puzzling, given that Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin had affirmed their “limitless” friendship in a joint statement in February 2022.
The answer emerged in a May 17, 2024, article by the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post, which argued that China should act quickly to reclaim “lost territories” from Russia.
The piece referenced the Karakhan Manifesto, which rejected the Tsarist-era treaties that deprived China of Manchuria and other areas and suggested that the Soviet government had promised to return these territories.
The article posited that with Putin preoccupied with the Ukraine war, it might be an opportune moment for China to assert its claims over these “lost territories.”
It further argued that China, with its significantly larger economy and population, holds substantial leverage over Russia and could use this to negotiate the return of its territories while threatening to cut off vital resources and technology.
The article suggested that if Russia’s actions in Ukraine are justified, then China’s claims on its historical territories in the Russian Far East might also be justified.
“If Russia is indeed the legal successor to the USSR, which it has claimed since invading Crimea in 2014, then Moscow is also liable to settle outstanding Soviet promises concerning the Karakhan Manifesto and the ultimate return of what is now the Russian Far East to China,” the article noted.
According to a 2013 article by a Chinese author, if Beijing aims to reclaim territory from Moscow, it would likely do so around 2055-2060. The author predicted that by around 2045, Russia’s government will experience a further decline in strength and influence, presenting China with an opportunity to act.
The article anticipated leveraging China’s military experience gained from conflicts over disputed territories in the South China Sea, India, Taiwan, Japan, and Mongolia.
The author highlighted the inevitability of conflict with Russia and suggested that China should be prepared to use nuclear weapons if necessary, particularly to neutralize Russia’s nuclear arsenal through a preemptive strike.
The author further pointed out that once Russia’s nuclear capabilities are neutralized, Russia will be compelled to concede and cede the disputed territories to China.
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