Saturday, September 18, 2021

VIRAL In China: Beijing Will Conquer Taiwan By 2025, India’s Arunachal Pradesh By 2040 — Experts

An article published in 2013 by the Chinese website Sohu is going viral on social media. The article explains how Beijing will settle score with their neighbors and re-conquer lost territories which include Taiwan and India. 

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It may be relevant even today, when “mighty China” has been at loggerheads with the tiny island of Taiwan, and other neighbors, including India, Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam among others over territorial disputes.

China has several state-owned media organizations, which more or less serve as Beijing’s mouthpiece. In addition, there are scores of private media companies, including digital ones, that also have been serving the Chinese Communist Party’s interest by running news, opinion, commentaries in favor of the government for decades.

For the uninitiated, Sohu is a Beijing-based online media, search engine, and game service company that has promoted Chinese government propaganda for years. The tech company was selected as the official sponsor of Internet Content Service for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games.

Xi Jinping
Chinese President Xi Jinping delivers a speech at a ceremony marking the centenary of the CPC in Beijing. (via Twitter)

The piece Sohu published eight years ago had mentioned 6 “inevitable” wars China will have to engage in between 2020 and 2050. Following is the strategy:

Taiwan (2020-2025)

The article raised the need for a war to unify Taiwan with mainland China. It said China must send an ultimatum to Taiwan by 2020 to choose peaceful unification or war.

The likely case, the author wrote, would be a full-scale war with Taiwan. But of course, China need not worry! Without the US or Japan’s intervention, winning this war would be a 3-month ordeal for the mighty PLA.

And with their intervention, it’d last, perhaps till 2025, when, of course, the ferocious Chinese military would return as the victor, the noted.

South China Sea (2025-2030)

After “conquering” Taiwan, China will take a much-deserved two-year rest. Soon, it will send yet another ultimatum to the countries surrounding the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea.

The “news” article considered a deadline of 2028 appropriate for this ultimatum. After that, the country will go on “re-conquesting” these islands.

The article expects minimal resistance from South East Asian countries who will, quite obviously, still be shivering due to China’s military prowess shown in Taiwan.

The US, having learned a hard lesson from whatever intervention it tried to do in Taiwan, would not directly confront China, but egg on countries, most likely the Philippines and Vietnam.

J-20
PLA Air Force J-20 fighter jets patrol in the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone. (via Twitter)

If it comes to this, the article states that Beijing’s best option is to declare war on Vietnam, win it, and intimidate other countries to surrender the Spratly islands to it. The prospect of China losing to Vietnam doesn’t exist. 

So, by 2030, China would have successfully, and quite thoroughly, extended its influence to the Pacific. In the smooth process of war and recovery from war, the communist nation would have also gained begrudging allies in Southeast Asia.

Southern Tibet (2035-40)

Off to the third war: the “reconquest” of Southern Tibet, a term Beijing uses to denote India’s Arunachal Pradesh that shares a border with Tibet. The article presents an analysis of potential military dealings that India would have with China’s adversaries like the US and Europe.

Tibet-Bullet Train
The Bullet train service between Lhasa and Nyingchi in Tibet. (Image: People’s Daily)

It suggests that the most efficient strategy would be to incite the disintegration of India – the country that has to date survived all its secessionist movements since its independence.

But if that doesn’t work, the second-best option is to incite India-Pakistan’s fight over Kashmir, and take over Southern Tibet while India is distracted.

Senkaku Islands (2040-2045)

The 4th war is about the unification of the Senkaku (Chinese: Diaoyu) and Okinawa (Chinese: Ryukyu) islands that Japan controls and China claims.

Between 2040 and 2045, the article implies, would be a good time for some more reconquesting. Simple plan: China attacks these “illegally occupied” islands; the US, Europe, and Russia silently watch; the war ends in 6 months (at most), and China scores an overwhelming victory.

Outer Mongolia (2045-2050)

The article says the 5th war will be on Outer Mongolia. Here, the author had unironically dismissed the idea of the unification of Outer Mongolia at present, then 2013, as unrealistic.

But by 2045, given the amount of clout China would have amassed, it would only be a matter of an ultimatum that may or may not be followed by a war. The war, the article quite confidently mentions, will result in Chinese victory, the latest by 2050.

Russia (2055-2060)

The last stop for China, before gaining global hegemon status, will be Russia. China has lost lands to Russia, and the Russians will have to pay.

The article is quite confident that even when taking on a major nuclear and military power, a former superpower, the victor will be the PLA.

Putin-Xi
Russian President Vladimir Putin with this Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. (via Twitter)

State propaganda is still filling China’s cyberspace. Sometimes it’s to control the populace, and sometimes to boost trust in the country’s military might.

Needless to say, the hypothesis presented by the author borders on fantasy, which could, at best, be adapted into a comic book or video game.

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