The United States believes China’s next-generation H-20 bomber, expected to challenge the US Air Force’s (USAF) B-21 Raider, is unlikely to debut before the end of this decade.
The assessment was made in a new report—“Military and Security developments involving the People’s Republic of China”— published by the Pentagon. The report does not specify whether the prediction about H-20’s debut implies its induction into service or its public unveiling by the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
“The PLAAF is seeking to extend its power projection capability with the development of a new H-20 stealth strategic bomber, with official PRC state media stating that this new stealth bomber will have a nuclear mission in addition to filling conventional roles. The PLAAF is developing new medium- and long-range stealth bombers to strike regional and global targets. PLAAF leaders publicly announced the program in 2016; however, it may take more than a decade to develop this type of advanced bomber,” the report states.
The predictions run contrary to the statement made by the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) deputy commander, Wang Wei, earlier this year.
Wang said the much-awaited H-20 will be unveiled very soon. Assuring the journalists that there are no major “technological bottlenecks” in the development of the bomber, Wang told reporters in March 2024 that the aircraft’s test flights will be closely followed by its manufacturing and commissioning, which will take place shortly after its official public debut.
Later, in September 2024, the PLAAF announced that it would unveil some of its latest warplanes at the Zhuhai Air Show, triggering speculation that the H-20 bomber may finally break cover.
However, despite displaying brand-new, cutting-edge aircraft like the fifth-generation stealthy J-35A and the twin-seater J-20S at the air show, the PLAAF did not introduce the sixth-generation bomber to the Chinese public.
The Pentagon report states, “The PRC is developing a new generation of long-range bombers, likely named the H-20. The H-20, which may debut sometime in the next decade, will have a range of more than 10,000 km [nearly 6,214 miles], enabling the PLAAF to cover the Second Island Chain and into the western region of the Pacific.”
“The H-20 bomber’s range could be extended to cover the globe with aerial refueling. It is expected to employ conventional and nuclear weaponry and feature a stealthy design,” it added.
China has remained invested in developing its next-generation bomber for about two decades. In 2016, then-PLA Air Force commander Ma Xiaotian publicly acknowledged the progress of China’s long-range bomber project.
A few years later, in January 2021, a clip from the PLA Air Force’s recruitment video featured the flying wing design of the long-underdeveloped next-generation, long-range strategic stealth bomber. Other than that, the bomber has been kept under wraps.
The H-20 is expected to be a game-changer for the PLAAF, allowing it to reach areas that have remained out of its reach so far. The Pentagon’s “China Military Power Report” from 2018 and 2019 predicted that China’s new H-20 long-range stealth bomber would have an operational range of 8,500 km.
The H-20 is expected to be a “flying-wing” design with a payload capacity of around 10 tons. Analysts predict that the aircraft would feature serrated air intakes, cranked-kite wings, and foldable twin-tail surfaces that can be switched between horizontal tailplanes and V-tails.
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Above all, however, it will be the nation’s first stealth bomber, unlike the USAF, which has been operating stealth nuclear bombers for decades. The Chinese military seems to be working on creating an aircraft that is hard to intercept and equipped with the technology required to get past the adversary’s anti-aircraft defenses.
Analysts in the United States anticipate that the H-20 will also have an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, which would be an advancement for the PLAAF.
A Capability Gap Between The US & China
The delay in fielding the H-20 is advantageous to the United States, which is leading the race to field next-generation nuclear-capable stealth bombers.
The US unveiled the B-21 two years ago, in December 2022. The aircraft made its first flight in less than a year, in November 2023. It has already entered low-rate production. It is expected to enter service in the mid-2020s.
The B-21 is designed to deliver both conventional and nuclear munitions. The bombers will replace the USAF’s B-1 Lancers and B-2 Spirit bombers.
The Pentagon said earlier that it would purchase 100 of these bombers, but the production could be expanded further. This may be a cause for concern for China because when the B-21 enters service, the PLAAF would be staring at a significant capability gap with its biggest rival.
The PLAAF requires long-range nuclear-capable warplanes to counter the tech dominance of the United States military. The H-20 would allow the PLAAF to conduct long-range conventional strikes on US territories in the Pacific, including Guam and Hawaii, and reach as far as the mainland US.
Currently, China operates the H-6 class of strategic bombers, a medium-range subsonic platform without stealth capability. However, the H-20 would offer completely new and novel mission capabilities, essential for challenging a technologically advanced rival.
Military analysts have predicted that the two countries could go to war if China decides to invade Taiwan—an armed conflict over the Indo-Pacific may, thus, be imminent.
With the B-21 Raider expected to enter service in the next few years, China has a big task ahead. Even if the H-20 makes its first flight in 2025, it will be inducted no earlier than 2030 and will take several more years to become combat-ready.
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