China’s new combat fighters have not influenced the US Air Force (USAF) plans regarding the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program.
USAF Secretary Frank Kendall said in an interview that the current Air Force leadership’s decisions on the Next-Generation Air Dominance program and the service’s overall strategic outlook were unaffected by the appearance of new Chinese combat aircraft, including a new AWACS platform, a smaller, fighter-size aircraft, and possibly a new bomber and medium bomber.
“I’ve been watching China modernize their military for quite a while,” Kendall said. “They’re working aggressively to build a military designed to keep the U.S. out of the Western Pacific, and I think, over time, they have more ambitions than even that.”
Strategically, “They’ve already shown that they’re going to modernize their strategic forces and dramatically increase their inventory of nuclear weapons. And in space, they’re doing similar things, right? They’re really militarizing space at a high rate. So that was already baked into all the things we were thinking about, and the arrival of those … airplanes, visible to the public, hasn’t really changed that,” he added.
The statement comes days after China flew two sixth-generation fighter jet prototypes on December 26. The tailless, supersonic stealth aircraft have been designated as the Chengdu J-36 and the Shenyang J-XX/J-50 by military watchers who believe China could be the first country to induct a sixth-generation fighter jet in service.
A day after China’s sixth-generation fighter prototypes took their maiden flight, the new KJ-3000 Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) aircraft was also spotted on its first flight. China also unveiled a fifth-generation aircraft dubbed the J-35A at the Zhuhai Air Show in November 2024.
USAF vs PLAAF: U.S. “Downplays” China’s Air Combat Capability; Can 6th-Gen “J-36” Change The Game?
After the appearance of the 6th-gen J-36, military experts speculated that it might finally lead to the revival of NGAD—a hope that has now been dashed, at least in the near term.
The US halted the program in the summer of 2024, reviewed its requirements, and ultimately postponed a decision on its future until the incoming Trump administration.
Initially, the NGAD was intended to partially replace the F-22s in the USAF. However, it has been put on hold due to its high costs and the need to prioritize resources for other important programs.
One unit of NGAD would cost US$250 million to US$300 million—nearly three times more than the F-35.
Last year, Kendall hinted a redesign was needed to control expenses and enhance the integration of loyal wingman drones. In the FY2023 budget request, the USAF allocated a total of US$1.66 billion for the NGAD program.
Speaking at the exit interview, Kendall emphasized that the Air and Space Forces have “strategic priorities” that need to be taken into account and evaluated against different NGAD approaches. But pricing wasn’t the only problem, Kendall added, echoing concerns that evolving technology and threats also necessitated a reexamination.
“My operators were not 100 percent sure they had the right airplane,” he said. “And I agree with that. I think it’s really worthwhile to think carefully about what is essentially an F-22 replacement. Is that really the right new design?”
When asked what suggestions his blue-ribbon panel of stealth experts, which included analysts, former chiefs of staff, and senior generals, made about NGAD, Kendall responded that they came to “a consensus that there are several other things that we need to fund.” However, it would still be beneficial to have an aircraft that is similar to NGAD if funds are available.
“We looked at something more of a lower-cost, multi-role kind of a capability. We looked at something that’s more tailored to work with [Collaborative Combat Aircraft], although, of course, NGAD could do that. And we looked at some other ’out of the box’ ideas,” he said, adding that “some of them might be worth pursuing independently.”
US To Focus On B-21 Raider?
While the ambitious NGAD program might not have ended, its postponement and redesign mean that China could become the first country in the world to induct a sixth-generation fighter jet in its air force.
Currently, two other sixth-generation fighter programs are being pursued: the UK-Japan-Italy Global Combat Air Program (GCAP) and the France-Germany-Spain Future Combat Air System (FCAS).
However, none of these aircraft are expected to fly soon. Ironically, the NGAD was the first sixth-generation aircraft to take to the skies way back in 2020.
Moreover, even though the NGAD has run into rough waters, the US is forging ahead with its FA-XX next-generation fighter jet for the US Navy. Some experts have suggested that the US could combine the NGAD and FA-XX for cost management.
The US could focus on the next-generation B-21 Raider, which the USAF has been prioritizing. The B-21 was conceived in 2011, and major development contracts were awarded in 2015. After keeping the project under wraps for several years, the US finally unveiled the sixth-generation bomber in 2022.
The Raider took its first flight in November 2023. At least three B-21s are currently in various stages of testing. The bomber is planned to enter service by the mid-2020s.
Though China is also developing its sixth-generation bomber, dubbed ‘H-20,’ Western analysts believe it will take a few years before the aircraft is ready for unveiling. In fact, the Pentagon report on China’s military, published last month, believes that the H-20 is unlikely to debut before 2030.
The Pentagon report stated, “The PRC is developing a new generation of long-range bombers, likely named the H-20. The H-20, which may debut sometime in the next decade, will have a range of more than 10,000 km [nearly 6,214 miles], enabling the PLAAF to cover the Second Island Chain and into the western region of the Pacific.”
For now, both the US and China are advancing work on sixth-generation aircraft with an eye on future combat. And while the NGAD postponement led to disappointment and anger among defense enthusiasts, the program is far from being shelved.
For now, the incoming Trump Administration holds the key to the NGAD. Whether the program is punted or revived remains to be seen.
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