Like many nations, Turkey is concerned about China’s expanding and assertive global influence. A recent report by Turkey’s National Intelligence Academy urges Ankara to recognize the limits of China’s power, highlighting that ‘a weakening Chinese economy could present opportunities for Turkey to assert itself within its regional sphere’.
Founded in 2024 under Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (Milli İstihbarat Teşkilatı, MİT), the National Intelligence Academy specializes in intelligence and security studies.
However, under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, MİT’s influence has increasingly extended beyond intelligence gathering, aligning more closely with Ankara’s broader political strategy.
The report underscores the complexities of China’s influence on Turkey’s foreign policy and advocates a pragmatic approach. It advises Ankara to carefully balance its engagements with Washington and Beijing while safeguarding its national interests.
Released on February 21, the report examines China’s expanding influence through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and diplomatic maneuvers, but questions the actual impact of these efforts on global geopolitics.
Turkey-China Relations
It highlights Beijing’s mediation in conflicts like the Saudi-Iran rapprochement and its pro-Palestine stance during the Gaza war, arguing that such moves are largely opportunistic rather than part of a sustained commitment to regional stability.
“For Turkey, especially in Africa, Central Asia, and the Middle East, this means crafting a strategy based on the premise that China’s alternative narrative lacks long-term viability,” the report asserts.
A key concern is China’s growing footprint in Central Asia, where its expanding economic investments could threaten Turkey’s historical influence over strategic trade routes. The report urges Ankara to strengthen regional partnerships to counterbalance Beijing’s economic reach.
The document also addresses human rights violations against the Uyghurs, a Turkic ethnic group native to China’s Xinjiang region.
It describes the Uyghur issue as a major trust deficit in Turkey-China relations but suggests that a “rational balance policy” could help manage tensions without forcing Ankara into a rigid stance of either confrontation or appeasement.
China-Türkiye Trade
As a NATO member deepening its economic ties with China, Turkey navigates a delicate geopolitical and economic balancing act. Despite China emerging as one of Turkey’s top trade partners, a stark trade imbalance remains a pressing issue.
In 2023, Türkiye imported a staggering US$45 billion worth of Chinese goods while exporting only US$3.3 billion to China, creating a trade deficit of over US$40 billion—the largest among Turkey’s bilateral trade relationships.
Beyond trade, Turkish policy makers see untapped potential in Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI), emphasizing the need for greater economic reciprocity to ensure a more balanced partnership.
Turkey’s Geopolitical Tightrope
Turkey finds itself at a critical crossroads, caught between its deep-rooted defense ties with the US and its expanding economic relationship with China. As Washington and Beijing lock horns in an intensifying rivalry, Ankara may soon face mounting pressure to pick a side—a scenario that could disrupt global supply chains and reshape Turkey’s economic future.
The report identifies the shifting international order, largely shaped by the US-China contest, as Turkey’s most pressing challenge. However, it notes that Russia’s intervention in Ukraine has demonstrated Ankara’s ability to maintain strategic autonomy, skillfully balancing its alliances without fully committing to any power bloc.
For decades, Turkey’s geopolitical orientation was anchored in a US-led unipolar order. Now, with China asserting itself as a revisionist power, that structure is undergoing a fundamental transformation. Beijing presents both a challenge and an opportunity—one that could redefine Turkey’s role in the emerging multipolar world.
If the US scales back its security presence in the Middle East, Turkey could face new geopolitical risks, while China’s expanding economic and energy interests in the region could put it in direct competition with Ankara, potentially limiting its influence.
The report suggests that despite China’s ambitions to reshape the global system, its ability to forge lasting strategic alliances remains uncertain.
A particularly volatile flashpoint is the potential for military confrontation between the US and China over Taiwan. The report outlines two possible scenarios: a full-scale US military intervention against China or a more restrained response akin to Washington’s approach to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
A direct US-China conflict would wreak havoc on global trade networks, forcing Turkey to reassess its economic dependencies. Given China’s pivotal role in global supply chains, Ankara would need to diversify its trade routes and boost its domestic manufacturing capacity.
Alternatively, if China were to invade Taiwan without US military involvement, Beijing could face severe economic sanctions and international isolation, injecting further instability into global markets—yet another factor Turkey must weigh as it navigates an increasingly unpredictable world order.
The Limits Of An Anti-American Bloc
While China and Russia maintain a pragmatic partnership, the report argues that their alliance lacks the deep structural foundations necessary for long-term cohesion. This creates an opening for Turkey to capitalize on its diplomatic agility and historical expertise in balancing major powers.
The report warns that if the US-China rivalry escalates into a full-scale ideological and security confrontation, new geopolitical fractures could emerge. In such a scenario, an anti-American bloc—potentially including Russia, Iran, and other US adversaries—could take shape, bringing heightened instability to Turkey’s borders. This, in turn, could fuel risks such as mass migration, terrorism, and regional insecurity.
China’s ambition to lead the Global South is evident, but its ability to offer credible alternatives to Western-dominated institutions remains uncertain.
The report reiterates that Turkey must craft its strategy based on the assumption that China’s influence in Africa, Central Asia, and the Middle East will remain constrained in practical terms despite its growing ambitions.
Turning China’s Economic Slowdown Into An Opportunity
The report suggests that China’s economic slowdown could present strategic opportunities for Turkey.
Since China entered the World Trade Organization in 2001, it has aggressively expanded into markets and industries where Turkey once held a strong presence, significantly eroding Ankara’s market share. A weaker China, however, may allow Turkey to reclaim lost ground by strengthening its economic footprint.
To capitalize on this shift, Turkey must enhance its regional connectivity and expand production capacity, particularly in critical sectors. The report emphasizes that Ankara’s ability to adapt to evolving global dynamics will shape its long-term geopolitical standing.
It urges Turkish policymakers to track China’s economic trajectory, regional ambitions, and strategic maneuvers in real time—ensuring that Turkey remains a nimble and influential player in an increasingly unpredictable world order.
- Shubhangi Palve is a defense and aerospace journalist. Before joining the EurAsian Times, she worked for ET Prime. She has over 15 years of extensive experience in the media industry, spanning print, electronic, and online domains.
- Contact the author at shubhapalve (at) gmail.com
