Donald Trump’s presidential term from 2017 to 2021 marked one of the most tumultuous periods for U.S.-Iran relations in recent history. With Trump’s return to the White House, Tehran faces the daunting possibility of renewed confrontations, sanctions, and military brinkmanship.
To understand why Iran should be apprehensive, it is essential to examine past policies, geopolitical dynamics, and military strategies that defined Trump’s tenure and could re-emerge if he reclaims the presidency.
Trump’s Legacy On Iran: A Background Check
Trump’s foreign policy toward Iran was characterized by a sharp deviation from the multilateral diplomacy of the Obama administration.
The cornerstone of this divergence was the U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2018. Commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, the JCPOA provided Iran with sanctions relief in exchange for limiting its nuclear activities.
However, Trump lambasted the agreement as “the worst deal ever,” claiming it did not adequately prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons and overlooked its ballistic missile program and regional activities.
The withdrawal led to the re-imposition of severe economic sanctions under the “maximum pressure” campaign. This strategy aimed to cripple Iran’s economy, slash its oil exports, and isolate it diplomatically.
While these sanctions severely impacted Iran’s economy, they also fuelled Tehran’s retaliatory measures, including resuming uranium enrichment and bolstering support for proxy forces across the Middle East.
Potential Scenarios: Military & Strategic Implications
From a military perspective, Trump’s presidency featured several critical flashpoints that offer clues about his potential future actions. Notable among these was the targeted killing of Major General Qasem Soleimani, head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, in January 2020.
The strike was significant not only for its audacity but also for its message: Trump was willing to cross unprecedented lines to confront Iran’s influence. This event escalated tensions in the region, prompting Iranian missile attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq and raising the specter of all-out war.
Given Trump’s track record, his presidency could reignite similar high-stakes confrontations. The U.S. military’s posture in the region would likely shift to a more aggressive stance, possibly involving bolstered naval deployments in the Persian Gulf, more frequent Freedom of Navigation operations, and joint exercises with regional allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
It appears clear that the potential for proxy confrontations in places like Yemen, Iraq, and Syria would rise, involving direct and indirect engagements akin to Cold War-era shadow wars.
Sanctions Game: Economic & Diplomatic Isolation
Under Trump’s administration, economic sanctions were not just a tool but a weapon wielded with strategic intent.
The implications for Iran were severe: oil exports plummeted, the value of the rial fell dramatically, and the economy shrank. With Trump regaining power, it is plausible that a similar or even more intensified sanctions regime would be re-imposed. This scenario would lead to profound domestic challenges for Iran, from economic stagnation and inflation to social unrest.
Iran’s regional influence, from its support for Hezbollah in Lebanon to its backing of the Houthis in Yemen, has always been a key point of contention. The reintroduction of stringent sanctions could severely limit Iran’s ability to finance these groups, thereby altering the strategic calculus in the region.
Furthermore, Trump’s policy would likely encourage allies in the region to adopt a harder stance against Iran, leading to a diplomatic isolation reminiscent of the pre-JCPOA era.
Ballistic Missiles & Proxy Networks: A Renewed Focus
Trump’s criticism of the JCPOA focused not only on its nuclear provisions but also on its failure to address Iran’s ballistic missile program and regional activities. The likelihood of Trump’s administration doubling down on these aspects is high.
Ballistic missile tests have long been a source of concern for both the U.S. and its regional allies. Under renewed pressure, Iran could face stricter sanctions targeting its defense and missile development sectors.
This would undoubtedly lead to an arms race-like scenario, with Tehran seeking alternative methods to project power and maintain deterrence capabilities.
A Trump administration would likely pose severe funding and operational challenges for Iran’s proxy network, which includes Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and Houthi rebels.
Trump’s previous administration, with significant backing from then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, launched comprehensive measures to target Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its support mechanisms. Similar measures could resurface, impacting Iran’s strategic depth in places critical to its power projection.
Military Lessons: A Fighter Pilot’s Perspective
From the standpoint of military experience and strategic analysis, Trump’s policies have demonstrated the use of unpredictable, high-impact tactics reminiscent of asymmetric warfare strategies often employed by middle-power states.
This unpredictability can lead to significant shifts in military doctrines and force posture, especially when dealing with a formidable regional power like Iran.
For instance, in the context of air superiority and multi-domain operations, the U.S. military, under Trump’s direction, would likely integrate advanced capabilities such as stealth bombers, cyber operations, and space assets to deter and, if necessary, incapacitate Iranian military infrastructure.
The potential for joint operations involving the Fifth Fleet, stationed in Bahrain, and CENTCOM’s forward-deployed air assets could further stress Iran’s air defense capabilities.
Potential Reactions From Iran: A Military & Political Perspective
Iran’s military doctrine has historically emphasized asymmetric warfare, focusing on ballistic missiles, fast-attack craft, drones, and proxy forces.
After Trump’s victory, Iran might double down on fortifying its defense systems, investing in more resilient missile batteries like the Bavar-373 (an Indigenous counterpart to the Russian S-300), and expanding its fleet of drones capable of swarm tactics—a rising concern in modern military engagements.
Politically, Iran could pursue a multi-pronged strategy involving closer alliances with other global powers like China and Russia to counterbalance U.S. pressure. These partnerships could lead to more sophisticated technology transfers and joint military exercises, challenging U.S. and allied strategies in the region.
The Nuclear Dimension: Revisiting Old Concerns
Trump’s previous administration was clear about its stance on Iran’s nuclear program: zero tolerance for any steps toward weaponization. This approach is unlikely to change.
A revived Trump presidency would see a firm line drawn, with red lines that could trigger pre-emptive strikes or covert operations akin to the cyberattacks attributed to the U.S. and Israel, such as the Stuxnet virus that disrupted Iran’s nuclear centrifuges.
The risk of such operations would elevate the stakes for Iran, necessitating counter-cyber capabilities and the fortification of nuclear facilities. Iran’s leaders might also be compelled to increase the visibility of their nuclear program as a bargaining chip, akin to Cold War-era brinkmanship—a strategy fraught with risks of miscalculation and escalation.
Stakes For Tehran
In sum, Donald Trump’s return to power represents a potential geopolitical reset, one that could destabilize the delicate balance in the Middle East and beyond.
For Iran, this means recalibrating its military strategies, economic policies, and diplomatic maneuvers. The specter of Trump’s hardline policies would undoubtedly re-ignite debates within Tehran’s corridors of power, pitting pragmatists who might seek limited engagement against hardliners who favor confrontation.
For military strategists, policymakers, and global observers, the potential for a renewed Trump administration highlights a high-stakes scenario in which any misstep could spiral into conflict.
- Group Capt MJ Augustine Vinod VSM (R) is COO, AutoMicroUAS. The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the EurAsian Times’ views.
- He tweets at @mjavinod
