The rapid advance of opposition forces in northern Syria has raised serious questions about the stability of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime and has complicated the strategic interests of his key supporters, Iran and Russia.
Syria’s more than a decade-long civil war has taken a dramatic turn, with the opposition led by Islamist Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) making significant territorial gains in northern Syria.
In a swift 72-hour offensive, the group, last week, stormed Aleppo and advanced toward the central city of Hama. This dealt a severe blow to President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which had appeared to be on the path to consolidating its hold on the country.
The Syrian government’s position had seemed increasingly secure in recent years. With military backing from Russia and Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Assad had managed to regain control of most of the country’s major urban centers.
The regime’s survival seemed assured, even as large parts of Syria remained under the control of Kurdish and Turkish-backed forces, and the country also faced repeated air strikes from Israel and the US.
However, the recent offensive by HTS – the group formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra, once affiliated with al-Qaeda – has thrown that assumption into disarray.
In a sudden and unexpected move, opposition forces recently carried out a coordinated attack from Idlib province, which had remained the last stronghold of anti-regime groups. Within days, they had advanced through northern Syria, with reports of government forces collapsing under the pressure.
Social media posts from Syrian accounts have shown chaos across the north, and the situation appears increasingly dire for Syrian government forces. Rebel fighters have also made major headway toward Hama, a city with historical significance due to the brutal crackdown by Hafez al-Assad, Bashar’s father, in 1982.
Thousands of opponents were killed in the massacre, ending a major uprising by the Muslim Brotherhood. The parallels between now and then have only deepened the sense of crisis.
With the new setback, it is clear that the war in Syria is far from over. The Assad regime still controls much of the country, but the recent developments indicate that the battle for Syria remains fiercely contested.
Mounting Challenges For Russia & Iran
While the opposition seems to be regaining momentum, the Assad regime’s international backers—Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah—are becoming increasingly distracted by their own challenges.
The armed opposition has capitalized on the large-scale damage Israel has inflicted on Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance,” especially Hezbollah.
A weakened Hezbollah and Russia, focused on its conflict in Ukraine, are finding it more difficult to support Assad’s regime. Although both will continue to assist, they no longer have the same military strength they did in 2015 and 2016, when they played a decisive role in suppressing the insurgency.
Russia remains fully engaged in the war in Ukraine but still has military assets in Syria, including warplanes, helicopters, and soldiers, across twenty bases. Much of Russia’s earlier support for Assad involved indiscriminate airstrikes against rebel-held areas, while Hezbollah provided ground support.
Russia will likely continue to use its Hmeimim airbase for similar operations. However, air power alone is unlikely to be enough to push back the rebels.
Assad’s forces are either unable or unwilling to combat the insurgency. Hezbollah is also unable to deploy the same level of forces as before. As a result, Russia finds itself in a challenging position. That said, Moscow will likely want to maintain its presence in Syria.
Iran, meanwhile, faces its own difficulties. According to Institute for National Security Studies researcher Benny Sabati, Tehran’s focus on countering Israel has left it severely depleted.
“The Iranians have paid a very high price for operating all their proxies against Israel over the past year,” Sabati explained, noting the loss of many senior commanders within Hezbollah, Hamas, and other groups.
Therefore, Iran enters the Syrian campaign in a weakened state, with little capacity to support Assad’s regime. The situation has worsened as Tehran has itself become a target. Recent attacks have killed key commanders and even led to the capture of the Iranian consulate in Aleppo.
Sabati further explained that Iran struggles with fighting on multiple fronts, particularly balancing its focus on Israel with the situation in Syria.
“They’ve abandoned it for the past two or three years in favor of focusing on Israel,” he noted. “The consequences of this shift in priorities are now becoming evident, with the ‘genie out of the bottle'” in Syria, Sabati said.
Sabati explained that in search of a solution, Iran turned to Russia for assistance. Iran’s foreign minister spoke with Russia’s foreign minister on December 1 to request help.
However, Sabati pointed out that the Iranian foreign minister’s visit to Damascus seemed ineffective. “He can come to encourage—that’s all he can do. They don’t have much in their pockets,” he said.
The regional outcome largely hinges on Russia’s response. If Russia intervenes and suppresses the rebellion, the situation could change. If it doesn’t, Iran and the Syrian regime will likely be significantly weakened.
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