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Responsivity Continuum: Emerging Cornerstone of Pakistan Navy’s Capability Development and Operation Direction: OpEd

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Responsivity, in generic terms, means a degree to which something is responsive, i.e., it can respond to various stimuli. Technically, the term is used in the systems’ study where it describes the ability of a system to adjust quickly to suddenly altered external conditions and maintain stable operations flawlessly.

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It denotes, here, Pakistan Navy with a capability to respond to existing and emerging threats – persistent or morphing – by maintaining a steady and consistent disposition, not showing lack of organizational and combat potential to respond.

The compound phrase ‘responsivity continuum’ means responsiveness across the spectrum of conflict, tailored with the right set of skills and capabilities that can be brought to bear in relatively less reaction times. It signifies that Pakistan Navy’s developmental and operational strategies would be responsive in a continuum (within range or a band) of challenges and threats without taking a lot of time in evaluation and adaptation. Why Pakistan Navy is adopting, as it seems, the theme of ‘responsivity continuum’ is the question answered in this note.

Pakistan Navy believes that threats are swiftly mutating, within both the traditional and non-traditional domains. Indian Navy’s capability-based forward planning and existence of maritime terror and non-state actors’ violent agenda are substantially influencing Pakistan Navy’s operational choices. Pakistan’s traditional rival, India’s military modernization, in recent years, has conspicuously altered Pakistan’s threat perceptions.

Indian ambitions to dominate the region have caused India to undertake a highly expensive militarization. This is most apparent in the maritime domain in the conventional and non-conventional buildup of forces such as acquiring more aircraft carriers, submarines as well as working on a functional nuclear triad. It is through this endeavour that India believes it will finally be able to dominate Pakistan once and for all. However, as yet, it has not been able to achieve success as was apparent in the largely lacklustre performance of its naval fleet during the post-Balakot crisis with examples such as the failed infiltration bid of its submarine on 4th March 2019.

Changing mosaic of the Indian naval threat is a stimulus, stronger of all extrinsic factors, which has necessitated Pakistan Navy to follow, what Alvin Toffler once called, ‘unlearn-learn’ model and adapt to transformed threats. Resource scarcity means Pakistan Navy cannot opt for a ‘quantity-matched’ response, but it has to have ‘quality–matched’ mechanics mounted on superior operational art. Pakistan Navy’s operational transition from ‘time-centric’ to time & space-centric’ construct is reflective of one of the responsivity strands, where the surface combatants have been reorganized and relocated as ‘surface task groups’ along the Pakistani coast.

This ‘organo-operational’ shift is also indicative of what the Pakistani Naval Chief, Admiral Zaffar Mehmood Abbasi, asserts is ‘leveraging the operational geography’. He believes the spatial distribution of naval ships is appositely configured to orchestrate naval action against Indian sea lines of communication in the West while delivering required lethality in the East. This reminds me of the Russian approach, which James J. Schneider calls the ‘distributed operations’.

A crucial aspect of responsivity continuum is the ability to deliver all domain firepower. Precision, reliability and lethality of weapon systems that would determine operational responsiveness of Pakistan’s Navy, have frequently been trialled, during the last two months. Pakistan Navy reported to have test-fired, successfully, various surface, subsurface, air and land-based missiles.

Live weapon firings, it appears, has now become an integral part of major maritime activities of Pakistan Navy, which would help establish itself as a dependable professional force able to function under myriad threats and diverse security situations. Pakistan Navy’s coastal command, comprising mainly of Marines, has also tested its ground-based air defence weapon on an airborne platform. Shore-based, Zarb anti-ship missile system, has already been tested and handed over to a naval missile unit that stewards Pakistani coast with a kill range of over 300 km. Cumulatively these weapons enable Pakistan Navy stand a fairground against its enemy, the Indian Navy.

While India would want to retain its ‘status’ as a regional maritime power but it should remind itself the need to maintain the Indo-Pak crisis stability. That implies India must reduce the regional entropy by avoiding to present Pakistan incentives leading to reduction of crisis stability.

These incentives may range from provocative manoeuvres by Indian ships to frequent operation and later detection of India submarines close to Pakistani coast. Seeing Pakistan Navy’s obvious posture of ‘responsivity continuum’ the next Indian submarine detected off Pakistani waters may not be as fortunate as the previous 209 and Kalvari class boats that came within strike range of Pakistan naval aviation but were allowed to go back to India.

Salman Javed is a graduate of National Defense University, Islamabad and a member of Board of Directors, Maritime Study Forum. Views Personel.
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Asia Pacific

India can ‘no longer’ choke China at the Strait Of Malacca as Beijing finds solution

The Strait of Malacca is a strategic waterway between Indonesia and Malaysia through which the majority of Chinese imports pass. The narrow waterway also makes the perfect chokepoint from the perspective of India, and should tension between Beijing and New Delhi rise, the Malacca Strait can be blocked easily by India. 

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Could the advantage that India enjoys over China due to the Strait of Malacca be coming to an end? Does China have a way to tackle the Indian plans of chocking Beijing at the Malacca Straits – the strategic waterway, in case of a war?

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India’s position at the mouth of the Malacca Strait has created panic amongst Chinese officials as they try to find an alternative route, writes the Forbes.

The Strait of Malacca is a strategic waterway between Indonesia and Malaysia through which the majority of Chinese imports pass. The narrow waterway also makes the perfect chokepoint from the perspective of India, and should tension between Beijing and New Delhi rise, the Malacca Strait can be blocked easily by India.

India’s natural position in the Indian Ocean, with basing capabilities in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands at the mouth of the strait, would allow its navy to cut it off in the event of a crisis or war with China.

Keeping in mind the recent flare-up between India and China, Larry Bond, renowned naval author and creator of the Harpoon war game series, says that if India wanted to block trade with China, all it has to do is its park ships at the mouth of the Malacca Strait.

The vast majority of China’s oil imports, from the Persian Gulf, Venezuela and Angola, pass by this route. Due to the strategic importance of the waterway, there is fear amongst Chinese officials that India could block the Malacca Strait in case of war.

Experts at EurAsian Times believe that the strategic importance of the Malacca Strait and the advantage it gives to India will likely reduce over time as Beijing find alternative routes.

Bypassing the Malacca Strait

The fact India enjoys a strategic advantage over China because of the Malacca Strait has forced Beijing to explore other options and find ways around the waterway.

One such option is Gwadar Port in Pakistan. As part of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Beijing has developed the port in Gwadar so that goods unloaded there will be shipped overland to China.

On June 8 the Pakistani government approved a $7.2bn upgrade to a railway which will connect Gwadar to Kashgar, China. The port is not yet operating at capacity, but the direction seems clear.

While Gwadar is still susceptible to an attack by the Indian Air Force (IAF), it adds political and military risks as it is in a third country’s territory. The Indian Navy could try and block this port but it would require ships to move away from the Malacca Strait.

The other option Beijing is exploring is Northern Sea Route in the Arctic which could create a ‘Polar Silk Road.’ The importance of this is underlined by China’s 2018 Arctic policy. It asserts, “Geographically, China is a “Near-Arctic State”, one of the continental States that are closest to the Arctic Circle.”

The policy statement goes on to say, “China hopes to work with all parties to build a “Polar Silk Road” through developing the Arctic shipping routes.”

Due to accelerated global warming, ice sheets are receding, thus making it possible for ships to travel via this route. Having sent its first ship through the region in 2013, Beijing is now investing in port infrastructure in the Arctic which connects to Europe.

China is also investing in designing ice breakers, vessels that would ease navigation through the Arctic. With help from Finnish Aker Arctic, China launched its first locally built ice breaker the Xue Long 2 in 2018.

Apart from exploring new waterways and developing strategic ports, Beijing is developing a land route directly to Europe, as part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), mainly as a way to export goods.

Thousands of trains are transversing across Asia in recent times, the modern-day version of the ancient Silk Road. Land routes are one way China can reduce the criticality of Chinese sea routes.

The strategic importance of the Strait of Malacca to China will lessen over a period of time. India will still be in a position to throttle Chinese supply lines there, but it will not have the same impact that it once had.

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Americas

India Bets Big On Nikki Haley To Emerge As Vice Presidential Candidate Under Trump

Nikki Haley has echoed some of the same arguments Donald Trump has made on national topics such as cancel culture, defunding police forces and statue removal, although the tone and frequency between Trump and Haley differ dramatically.  

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India has pinned hopes on Nikki Haley to become the US Vice President (VP) should Donald Trump get re-elected this November. Haley, a first-generation Indian American, is expected to strengthen Indo-American relation and also attract a lot of voters including women and minorities.

According to the reports, there is speculation that Trump might switch out Vice-President Mike Pence for Nikki Haley as his running mate in the hopes of boosting his lagging approval numbers among the broader electorate.

Despite resigning as US Ambassador to the United Nations, Haley has been active in politics. She has been fundraising for Republican congressional candidates as well as in the Senate and gubernatorial arena.

She has set up a non-profit organization to boost her policy priorities and has continued to pen editorials on foreign policy. And Hailey has retained a small, tightly knit orbit of advisers.

The former governor of South Carolina, Haley is one of the people who left the Trump Administration on good terms. She has even promised to campaign for the President for his re-election bid.

Haley has echoed some of the same arguments Donald Trump has made on national topics such as cancel culture, defunding police forces and statue removal, although the tone and frequency between Trump and Haley differ dramatically.

According to experts at EurAsian Times, Haley’s recent moves can be seen as a carefully executed plan to stay involved in key Republican policy circles and the national discourse. Haley has fundraised for almost a dozen Republican Senate candidates, many of them in tough re-election races, and has been a special guest at Republican Governors Association (RGA) events.

While Haley has dismissed reports about her running for VP, her being an influential person of colour could help Trump win constituencies he is currently losing.

India pinning hopes on Nikki Haley

The US Presidential elections are a spectacle observed globally and India would be hoping Trump wins and Haley gets elected as the VP. Haley enjoys nationwide popularity amongst Indian-Americans and her election as VP could lead to stronger ties between Washington and New Delhi.

She has natural links to India with her parents having emigrated to the US in the 1960s from Punjab. Haley has often pointed out that India is an example of a free government and recently even applauded New Delhi’s decision to ban 59 Chinese applications and for standing up to China.

With an Indian-American at the helm of affairs, New Delhi would see it as an opportunity to get closer to Washington. It could lead to India benefitting in the areas of trade, defence and investment and would be a huge blow to neighbours China and Pakistan.

US Presidential elections are scheduled to take place in November and will be contested between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. While Biden’s re-election does not mean that India and the United States will have weak relations, having Trump in the White House and Haley as VP would definitely lead to stronger Indo-American ties.

Armaan Srivastava. Views Personal

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Americas

Russian T-14 Armata Tanks Now On Sale; Hopes To Challenge US’ M1 Abrams

The T-14 is part of the Armata’s heavily tracked standardized platform, which serves as the basis to develop the main battle tank, an infantry fighting vehicle, an armoured personnel carrier and other armoured vehicles.

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Russia’s T-14 Armata tank will be up for sale from 2021. This was announced by Denis Manturov – Industry and Trade Minister of Russia. He said that they are already receiving requests for the deadly T-14 Armata tanks from several foreign customers.

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The T-14 is part of the Armata’s heavily tracked standardized platform, which serves as the basis to develop the main battle tank, an infantry fighting vehicle, an armoured personnel carrier and other armoured vehicles. It has fully digitized equipment, an unmanned turret and an isolated armoured capsule for the crew.

“Russian producers are ready to offer potential buyers both air defence systems, such as the S-300 and the S-400 and advanced aircraft and helicopters,” explained Dmitry Shugayev, Head of Russia’s Federal Service for Military and Technical Cooperation.

“We are preparing the MiG-35 light fighter for sale and are promoting the latest T-14 ‘Armata’ tank,” he added.

The Armata T-14 was first demonstrated during the Victory Day Parade in May 2015 in Moscow. The actual production of the tanks was delayed. The first nine T-14 Armatas were originally planned to be handed over to the Russian Ground Forces (RGF) in 2018. This date then got pushed to 2019 and then to 2020.

Russia hopes that the T-14 Armata tank will give a tough competition to America’s M1 Abrams that destroyed thirty-seven of the Soviet-designed T-72s during the 1991 Gulf War.

T-72s remain Russia’s primary battle tank, supplemented by turbine-engine T-80s and four hundred more advanced T-90s. According to Sébastien Roblin, an expert on security and militarywhile Russia may finally have a 125-millimetre sabot round that can threaten Western main battle tanks at the range, only its handful of new T-14s tank are capable of actually using it.

Experts claim that the 2A82 gun could be retrofitted to numerous older T-90s and T-72s so far appear not to have materialized.

Despite Russia’s defence spending, the Russian military has continued with the production of the new tank. The production is overseen by Rostec Corporation, the Moscow conglomerate that specializes in consolidating strategically important companies in Russia’s defence sector.

It has undergone field testing in Syria. Although the extent of testing and the results are still unclear, a Russian media outlet suggested that “one Armata was completely destroyed.” There’s no confirmation on that but it might not look good to its buyers.

“It [the T-14 Armata tank] is expensive because it is still undergoing extra trials and modernization after the defence ministry requested additional technical solutions in order to begin serial supplies starting from the next year under the existing contract,” said Manturov in April this year.

He further said that next year, when serial supplies of these tanks to the defence ministry are launched and an export certificate is obtained, they will begin to work with foreign clients. “Preliminarily, bearing in mind that we cannot provide all the documentation to our foreign clients. We do have preliminary orders,” he added.

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