An important element in the politics of big and industrialized powers is acquiring energy sources and rich but unexploited mineral wealth.
The Central Asian region came into prominence with the beginning of Great Britain’s famous mid-19th-century geopolitical strategy, the “Great Game in Central Asia.”
The strategy essentially focused on containing the expansion of Czarist Russia’s influence southward in Central Asia and securing the British colony of India, the most precious jewel in the British crown.
Hindsight reveals that the ‘Great Game’ was a game of political rivalry between the two big powers of the day and was least motivated by a quest for energy sources or the mineral wealth of the vast chunk of earth called Central Asia.
While Imperial Russia was expanding southward to cross the watershed of Badakhshan Mountain and reach the warm waters of the Indian Ocean, Great Britain was determined to checkmate Russia’s southward expansion and thereby secure the northern borders of their Indian Empire.
Changed Goalposts
In contemporary times, not only the actors of the classical “Great Game” strategy have changed, but their aims and objectives and the methodology of achieving them have also assumed new directions.
The aim is not to grab large or small chunks of land. It is not just to checkmate the growing political and economic footprints in the vast Central Asian lands but, more importantly, to gain access to Central Asia’s hydrocarbon deposits and mineral wealth.
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, which have rich hydrocarbon deposits, have signed agreements with China allowing the exploration and exploitation of their oil deposits. With the fourth-largest gas reserves in the world, Turkmenistan exports natural gas to some European buyers.
However, the TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) gas pipeline project has remained stalled for nearly two decades owing to political or technical glitches. Unconfirmed reports suggest that Turkmenistan is seriously contemplating partially initiating the process.
Digital Technology
In the recent two or three decades, IT in general, and advanced digital technology in particular, have fostered spectacular change in the region’s geostrategy. New vistas of human ingenuity have opened up. Digitalization has begun to reveal its potential to impact contemporary life, aspirations, and perceptions.
In the process, the importance of various critical minerals has also been established. This has intensified worldwide demand and the search for crucial minerals. Driven by their futuristic industrial and technical needs, advanced countries like the USA, EU, China, and Japan have caught the time by the forelock.
China and Russia Are In The Lead
China is the only superpower whose borders touch at least three Central Asian republics: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
Currently, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan are the Central Asian states with railway connections to China, with the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway project further strengthening these links. Kazakhstan has a well-developed rail network that connects to China and is a key transit country for goods moving between China and Europe.
A proposed railway link called the Five Nations Railway Corridor would connect China, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan, and Iran. This widely spread rail connectivity gives China easy access to the energy and mineral resources of not only the Central Asian States but also Afghanistan and Iran.
Russia, with its long historical relations with the Central Asian region, before and after the Soviet Union, has been actively working to maintain and expand its influence in Central Asia’s mining and energy sectors. Russia and China are pursuing nuclear energy projects and mineral development deals with some Central Asian States.
Central Asian nations are engaged with multiple international powers to develop their nuclear energy capabilities and mining sectors, creating a complex geopolitical landscape with competing interests.
The US & The EU
In recent months, the United States and the European Union have demonstrated rising interest in Central Asia’s critical minerals. They have also shown interest in constructing and operating nuclear power plants in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan.
The EurasiaNet reported on March 24: “The US quest for rare earths appears to be intensifying, underscored by a low-key tour by a US congresswoman, Carol Miller, a Republican from West Virginia, who has held meetings with high-profile Central Asian leaders. In a highly unusual protocol twist for a US representative who is not a member of the legislature’s hierarchy, Miller met with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev on March 20, three days after holding talks with Uzbek leader Shavkat Mirziyoyev in Uzbekistan.”
Amusingly, the international media did not cover the visit. Statements issued by the presidential press services of both countries are vague summaries of the discussions, not touching on mining or critical minerals.
Miller’s website does not even mention that she traveled to Central Asia. However, a March 19 report published by a Uzbek outlet said that Miller met with top Uzbek Trade Ministry officials and that Uzbekistan expressed “readiness to more actively develop partnership in key areas such as industry, critical minerals, investment, and trade.”
In an article in Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Victoria Panfilova wrote that the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, visited Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan to discuss preparations for first Central Asia—European Union summit, which will take place on April 3-4 in Samarkand. The focus will be on energy, transport corridors, and climate change.
The summit is designed to identify new vectors of cooperation between Brussels. During the meeting, the parties discussed the implementation of the EU-Central Asia roadmap adopted in Luxembourg on October 23, 2023, focusing on five key areas for deepening cooperation.
The ministers considered prospects for developing trade, economic, and investment ties and expanding transport and digital connectivity within the framework of the Global Gateway strategy.
The meeting participants enthusiastically received Kaja Kallas’s statement on the readiness of European and international financial institutions to invest 10 billion Euros (US$10.82 billion) in developing the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR).
These funds are intended to create a multimodal, competitive, sustainable, predictable, smart, and efficient transport network that will significantly improve communications between Central Asia and European countries.
Conclusion
Because of the changing world order, new alignments and postulations are emerging rapidly. Old-time diehard rivals are changing postures, and new alliances are on the anvil.
The US and the EU, complementing one another’s political agendas in the post-Cold War era, are seeking divergent policies and parameters.
The US-Russian rivalry, or the Sino-American rivalry that has haunted human society for too long, is losing its shine and sparkle.
There are indications that the EU may outstrip China, Russia, and even the United States in building a new economic zone comprising vast Central Asian, trans-Caspian, Caucasian, and Southeast European regions.
- Prof. KN Pandita (Padma Shri) is the former director of the Center of Central Asian Studies at Kashmir University.
- This article contains the author’s personal views and does not represent EurAsian Times’ policies/views/opinions in any way.
- The author can be reached at knp627 (at) gmail.com
