In light of potential Israeli strikes on Iranian oil operations, Iranian super-tankers have departed from Kharg Island, the country’s largest oil terminal, leaving the anchorage completely empty for the first time in recent history.
US President Joe Biden said Thursday that the US is “discussing” the possibility of Israel bombing Iranian oil facilities. This comes in response to nearly 200 rockets fired at Israel earlier in the week, which has already led to a surge in global oil prices.
When asked if he supported Israeli strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure, Biden responded, “We’re discussing that. I think that would be a little… anyway,” leaving his stance cautious yet open on the matter. Biden’s comments have fueled speculation about potential military action.
As tensions in the Middle East escalate, Israel has vowed a ‘painful’ response to Iran’s aggression. With its significantly stronger air force and Iran’s comparatively weak air defenses, Israel could target a variety of sites in Iran, including military installations, intelligence centers, senior commanders, oil terminals, refineries, and even nuclear facilities.
Israel would likely receive support from U.S. intelligence gathered through satellites and other means. However, Biden has expressed his opposition to an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear sites.
Several reports suggest that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government may target Iran’s oil infrastructure as retaliation.
“Israel could also take aim at Iran’s nuclear facilities, but those buildings are hardened, making them difficult to destroy. What is really on the table now and is more likely is an attack on oil facilities,” said retired US Army Col. Jack Jacobs in an interview with CNBC on Wednesday morning.
Even former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak suggested that Israel is likely to target Iran’s oil industry as a symbolic retaliation for Tehran’s ballistic missile attack on Tuesday.
Super Tankers Vacated
In the meantime, reports from TankerTrackers, an international tanker tracking firm, claim that the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) appears to be fearing an imminent attack by Israel.
Their empty Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) super-tankers departed from Kharg Island, Iran’s largest oil terminal, on Wednesday. While crude oil loadings continue, all additional vacant shipping capacity has been cleared from the anchorage at Kharg Island.
TankerTrackers noted that this is the first instance of such activity since the imposition of the 2018 sanctions.
Supporting this observation, Hunterbrook, an open-source investigative agency, analyzed 105 satellite passes since last November and confirmed that this is the first time the anchorage has been completely vacant, highlighting that previous images show the presence of tankers.
Images dating back to last year showing this is the first time all the tankers have been gone from the anchorage: https://t.co/tR1y3eNHYS pic.twitter.com/lb1nr74pEc
— Hunterbrook (@hntrbrkmedia) October 3, 2024
This also means that Iran is taking the threat of potential strikes seriously.
It’s worth noting that Iranian tankers are known for their evasive tactics, often turning off their transponders and manipulating their Automatic Identification System (AIS) to hide their movements and evade US sanctions. However, the current situation goes beyond these usual maneuvers, indicating a higher level of perceived threat.
Strategic Significance Of Kharg Island
According to industry data aggregator and research firm Kpler, Iran exported 1.194 million barrels per day of crude oil and gas condensate in spring 2023, a figure that surged to a five-year high of 1.65 million barrels per day during the first five months of 2024.
Kharg Terminal, located on Kharg Island just 15 miles off Iran’s northwestern coast, handles 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports. Oil is transported to the island via pipeline.
Historically, Kharg Island was the world’s largest offshore crude oil terminal, and an attack here could have devastating consequences.
Given its strategic importance, Kharg Island is widely considered a potential target for Israel if it initiates strikes on Iran. Targeting this terminal in the Persian Gulf would aim to cripple Iran’s oil revenue.
Such an attack could trigger a short-term crude price spike of around 5%, as it poses a risk of widespread international disruption, particularly affecting Iran’s exports to China, the world’s largest oil importer.
As the third-largest producer of crude oil within OPEC, Iran heavily relies on oil and gas exports to support its struggling economy, which is already under strain from ongoing sanctions.
In response, Tehran has stated that if Israel and the U.S. retaliate against the Kharg Island oil export terminal, it will target Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura oil export terminal. Such an escalation could potentially draw more countries into the conflict and further destabilize the region.
Oil Price Surge
The mere possibility of strikes on Iranian oil facilities has sent shockwaves through global oil markets. Within 45 minutes of Biden’s comments, oil futures surged dramatically.
Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, increased by 5% to $77.54 per barrel, reaching its highest level in over a month and nearing the $80 mark last seen in August. Similarly, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose by 5.02% to $73.62.
These price spikes reflect the market’s sensitivity to potential supply disruptions in the Middle East, a region crucial to global oil production.
Conclusion
The evacuation of Iranian oil tankers from Kharg Island marks a significant escalation in the ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel.
As the situation unfolds, several critical questions remain: Will Israel move forward with strikes on Iranian oil facilities, and if so, what will be the scale of these operations? How will Iran respond to potential attacks, and could this lead to a broader regional conflict? What long-term effects will these developments have on global oil markets and energy security? Additionally, how will other major powers, particularly China as Iran’s largest oil customer, react to potential disruptions in oil supply?
As the international community navigates these uncertainties, the coming days and weeks will be pivotal in shaping the trajectory of this conflict and its potential global implications.
- Shubhangi Palve is a defense and aerospace journalist. Before joining the EurAsian Times, she worked for E.T. Prime. In this capacity, she focused on covering defense strategies and the defense sector from a financial perspective. She offers over 15 years of extensive experience in the media industry, spanning print, electronic, and online domains.
- Contact the author at shubhapalve (at) gmail.com
