Greece, a NATO member, will invest around 26 billion euros ($28 billion) by 2036 in modernizing its military capabilities, a defense ministry source said Monday.
Conservative Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis is due to unveil to parliament on April 2 the details of the sweeping 11-year plan to reform the armed forces.
“In all, the country’s new armament program provides for an average expenditure of 2.16 billion euros per year. That totals nearly 26 billion euros between now and 2036,” the source told AFP.
The planned reforms were outlined in November by Defence Minister Nikos Dendias, who said Greece needed to modernize so it could cope with the defense challenges of the 21st century.
Central to the program is a multi-pronged air defense system dubbed Achilles Shield, which integrates anti-missile, anti-drone, and anti-aircraft technology. Greek media reports have said the government is in talks with Israel to acquire multiple PULS rocket launch systems for this purpose.
The program also includes the purchase of 20 F-35 fighter jets. An agreement has already been signed for the aircraft, which are due to be delivered in 2030.
Greece is one of only four NATO countries to devote more than 3.0 percent of its gross domestic product to defense spending, a strategy triggered largely by long-standing tensions with neighboring Turkey.
Within the military alliance, only Poland, Estonia, and Latvia spend more on defense than Greece.
France, Germany, and Poland also recently announced they want to strengthen their armed forces, and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has said the 27-member European Union should significantly increase spending on weaponry.
Athens has earmarked 6.13 billion euros for defense this year, largely to pay for equipment deliveries. This is nearly double last year’s budget of 3.6 billion.
European Nations Debate Conscription
Frightened by the prospect of US security disengagement and three years of Moscow’s war against Ukraine, European countries are debating reinstating compulsory military service to boost their defenses in the face of Russian aggression.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 caught Europe off guard, and fears about the strength of NATO surged further after US President Donald Trump upended the transatlantic alliance, saying Europe must take care of its own security.
Both military analysts and European governments acknowledge that the threat of Russian aggression is real today, even more so than three years ago.
“The Russian military today is larger and better than on February 24, 2022. The Russians have hostile intent against the Baltic states and the EU’s eastern flank,” said Alexandr Burilkov, a researcher at the Institute of Political Science (IPW) at Heidelberg University.
According to a study Burilkov co-authored for think tank Bruegel and the Kiel Institute, Europe could need 300,000 more troops, in addition to 1.47 million active-duty military personnel, to deter Russian aggression.
“Conscription would have to play a role in any such large numbers of new troops,” he said.
From Paris to Warsaw, leaders have been looking to boost defence spending in the face of US threats to withdraw its European security guarantees.
However, many countries, including France and Britain, have struggled with recruiting and retaining troops. Reintroducing some form of national service—compulsory or voluntary—might be even more difficult.
According to a YouGov poll, most people in France (68 percent) and Germany (58 percent) support mandatory military service for young people. Italian and British people are divided, while a majority of Spaniards (53 percent) are against it.
However, studies also show that many Europeans are not prepared to defend their countries on the battlefield.
“In a liberal society, the imposition of military constraints has become nearly impossible to implement,” said Benedicte Cheron, a French expert who studies links between society and the armed forces.
“As long as there is no invasion of the territory, accepting the political costs of imposing sanctions on those who do not comply with the call-up seems unthinkable.”
Incentives
After the Cold War, most European countries ended compulsory conscription. However, just nine countries—Greece, Cyprus, Austria, Switzerland, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Norway, and Turkey—never suspended it.
Lithuania reintroduced conscription in 2015, a year after Russia annexed Crimea. Sweden followed suit in 2017 and Latvia in 2023.
But mindful of political and economic costs, most of NATO’s five biggest European spenders—France, Germany, the UK, Italy, and Poland—are not planning to make participation in the armed forces mandatory.
However, Poland, which ended conscription in 2008, recently announced plans to offer military training to 100,000 civilians a year starting in 2027. Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the scheme will be voluntary, but the authorities are planning a system of “motivations and incentives.”
Germany’s likely future chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has said he favors the reintroduction of a compulsory year in which young people could perform either military or community service.
In Britain, the last national servicemen were demobilized in 1963, and the government did not plan to reverse course.
“We’re not considering conscription, but, of course, we’ve announced a major increase in defense expenditure,” said Cabinet Office minister Pat McFadden.
In France, where compulsory military service ended in 2001, President Emmanuel Macron has been looking for ways to encourage young people to serve.
In comments to reporters published Saturday, he said France no longer had the “logistics” to re-introduce compulsory service, but he wanted to “look at ways to mobilize civilians” and would be making an announcement in the coming weeks.
French military historian Michel Goya said reintroducing national service “would mean transforming a large part of the army into training centers.”
In Italy, Defence Minister Guido Crosetto has ruled out reintroducing national service but has spoken in favor of a reserve force.
The Divide
Researchers say Western European politicians should learn from Nordic and Baltic countries, particularly Finland and Sweden.
Finland, which shares a long border with Russia and was invaded by the Soviet Union in 1939, has one of the largest reserve forces in Europe.
“The east-west divide is still a problem. Few people in Western Europe are willing to fight,” said Burilkov. Convincing Europeans to volunteer would require advocacy campaigns, he said.
“There is also a relationship between whether people see the war as winnable and whether they want to serve, so dramatically improving European military capabilities will make people more confident in them.”
Goya said Europeans had been suddenly struck by their vulnerability.
“It’s only when the tide goes out that you learn who’s been swimming naked,” he said.
“The American sea is receding, and many European countries are saying to themselves that yes, in the end, they are a little bit exposed.”
© Agence France-Presse
