According to a Bloomberg report dated October 12, India has emerged as Russia’s second-biggest supplier of restricted critical technologies!
The Bloomberg report is based on information and quotes provided by US and European officials, but it doesn’t name any of the officials. Nor does the report give even a single example of such exports by India.
The mysterious officials claim that “Indian exports of restricted items such as microchips, circuits, and machine tools surpassed $60 million in both April and May, about double from earlier months this year, and leaped to $95 million in July.”
Note that the export surge claim doesn’t specify Russia as being the export destination. Of course, it doesn’t name the officials. Instead, it waves a fig leaf cover claiming that the officials asked not to be identified when discussing private assessments.
According to the Bloomberg report, when envoys of nations who are allied with Ukraine raised the issues with the Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), they received “little response.”
The authors of the Bloomberg report then hilariously lament that India’s MEA declined to comment when asked about the trend.
The mysterious officials quote (even more mysterious?) fresh data that underscores the difficulty the US and its allies have faced in constraining Russia’s war-fighting potential.
Apparently, Russia is circumventing the ban on Ukrainian allies’ export of dual-use items to Russia by obtaining the dual-use items from “subsidiaries of Western firms or networks of intermediaries” in third countries.
The report lists Turkey and the United Arab Emirates as long-established transshipment points, with India, Malaysia, and Thailand emerging as new ones.
Have Hi-Tech Indian Exports Really Surged?
So what’s going on? Have Indian exports of restricted items—such as microchips, circuits, and machine tools—actually surged lately?
The answer is likely yes. The export surge is also likely to be almost entirely due to increased exports to Russia.
However, any such surge in Indian exports to Russia has nothing to do with enhancing Russian warfighting capability—or, as the Western press likes to say, Putin’s warfighting capability—not President Putin.
No, you cannot associate that kind of culture with the West anymore. It’s now an Eastern thing. For the West – it’s just Putin.
Of course, even if the Russians were culturally inclined, they would talk about US warfighting capability, not Biden’s warfighting capability. After all, Biden is best known for his tumbles more than anything else, so relating warfighting to Biden would not be a slight—it would be a joke!
Getting back to the point. Is India really assisting Russia fight its war with Ukraine?
Of course not!
Very soon after the start of Russia’s special military operation (SMO) in February 2022, Western leaders categorically asserted that the Russian war machine would soon come to a grinding halt because of Western sanctions on the export of microchips to Russia.
But that didn’t happen. A prominent EU leader then suggested that Russia was stripping microchips from Washing Machines to keep its missile program going.
We all understand that the EU leader who made the statement isn’t known for her intellectual depth, but the manner in which the Western media echoed the sentiment, her contention may well have been profound.
In this new age, you believe what you want to believe. You let your faith, not logic or science, dictate the facts!
So, the Bloomberg report could well be based on an increase in exports of Indian washing machines to Russia. I know, I know that in India, all washing machines are made from Chinese components, but in this case, the US (Shylock Sam?) isn’t after China. He is after India!
Russian Export Surplus
Let’s step back a little to understand what is happening. Over the past two years, India’s import of Russian oil at very favorable terms has left Russia with a huge trade surplus that India does not wish to clear through dollar or yuan payments.
India has encouraged Russia to invest its trade surplus in India for manufacturing goods for export to Russia, thereby balancing the overall trade between the two countries.
As a result, Moscow has invested in joint ventures in India for manufacturing consumer goods for the Russian market. Earlier, Russia was largely dependent on Europe and China for consumer goods.
India’s stepped-up export of consumer and manufacturing goods to Russia goes well beyond washing machines. Most consumer and manufacturing goods have electronic chips.
Many of the chips use the most advanced commercially available nanotechnology, which the US proscribes for export to Russia. Goods being manufactured in India for export to Russia generally have Chinese semiconductors.
However, it doesn’t matter whether the chips embedded in Indian consumer goods are of Chinese origin; the US can sanction an Indian company exporting them to Russia.
So, you see the logic? Great! Now explain that to a Sikh business tycoon who manufactures instant water tap geysers for export to Russia using Russian specifications and Chinese chips.
I installed one such geyser I bought from Amazon last fall, having waited for such a consumer product to be available in India for a lifetime.
Yes! With this thingy, you get hot water instantly. No need to twiddle thumbs as the water flows through cold water pipes and slowly turns from ice cold, to luke warm, to warm, and then hot enough to scald you!
The geyser has been working like a charm for over a year now – digital water temperature readout and all that jazz! I didn’t have to read the instructions written in Russian!
The important point here is that the Bloomberg report, though entirely balderdash, is technically correct if that wash basin tap Geyser is being exported.
Why, you ask? Because the Russians could pull out the Chinese microchip from the geyser and install it on a drone to monitor battery temperature!
- Vijainder K Thakur is a retired IAF Jaguar pilot, author, software architect, entrepreneur, and military analyst.
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