India has surpassed Russia and Japan to become the third most powerful country in Asia after the US and China.
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Japan’s waning power has been attributed to its economic decline. Tokyo has fallen to fourth place in most of the indicators assessing the most powerful and influential Asian nations.
The annual Asia Power Index, started by Australia’s Lowy Institute think tank, measures resources and influence to assess the relative power of states in Asia.
It is an analytical tool that ranks 27 countries and territories in terms of what they have and what they do with what they have – reaching as far west as Pakistan, as far north as Russia, and as far into the Pacific as Australia, New Zealand, and the United States.
The 2024 edition—which covers six years of data—is the most comprehensive assessment of the changing distribution of power in Asia to date.
The 2024 Asia Power Index highlights the shifting power dynamics in the region. The United States is still dominant but faces rising military pressure from China. The countries are assessed based on their economic, defense, diplomatic, and other strengths. China has seen military gains, but its overall influence has plateaued.
The key findings of the survey are that China’s power is neither surging nor collapsing. It is plateauing below that of the United States but still well above any Asian competitors. The United States has bolstered its standing in Asia — though it is losing ground to China on Military Capability.
“India is rising although a tad bit slowly. India has overtaken Japan to become the third-ranked power in Asia, but its clout remains below the potential promised by its resources,” the survey reports.
India’s power in Asia is growing, overtaking Japan to take third place for its comprehensive power for the first time. However, the gap between the expectation of “India rising” and reality remains pronounced.
“The Asia Power Index shows that New Delhi still has limited ability to project power and influence east of the Malacca Strait. However, the fact that its influence remains well below the level promised by its resources suggests it still has ample potential for further growth as a major power,” the report says.
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With Japan taking a stand on security issues in the region, its image is changing from an economic and cultural powerhouse to one much more active in defense and security.
Tokyo’s economic clout is waning due to rising competition, especially in areas where it once had a formidable technological advantage. These have “eroded sharply in the face of competition from other advanced manufacturing hubs in South Korea, China, and Taiwan.”
Tokyo, however, also gained points in the ranking as it takes on a more prominent role in the defense and security sphere. The report noted increased collaboration with Washington and other regional partners. Tokyo has stepped up as a regional security provider, a development exemplified by its signing of a Reciprocal Access Agreement with Manila.
The power game in Asia, however, continues to be bipolar, with the world’s two superpowers topping the ranking by a considerable margin.
“The United States and China appear to be digging in for a long contest. China’s power is neither surging nor collapsing but plateauing. Flatlining Economic Capability, driven by slower economic growth and longer-term structural challenges, means that China’s economic clout, while still commanding, is no longer growing,” the survey found.
The US leads China on six out of eight parameters in the Asia Power Index. However, its advantage on one key metric is eroding: China has continually improved its Military Capability and has closed more than a quarter of the lead that the US had in 2018. “For the first time, experts surveyed for the Asia Power Index judged that China is better able to deploy rapidly and for a sustained period in the event of an interstate conflict in Asia,” the report said.
China’s ability to wage protracted war has come at a time when Beijing has upped the ante against the self-ruled island of Taiwan.
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China’s Plateauing Power
The key takeaway from the survey is that China’s power is neither surging nor collapsing. Instead, it has started plateauing at a level below that of the US. However, it is still way ahead of its Asian competitors.
Acknowledging that China’s power is assessed from two extreme perspectives: “China eclipsing the United States and becoming an unstoppable regional hegemon, or China ‘peaking’ and failing to sustain a competitive edge.”
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The 2024 Asia Power Index, however, reveals that China’s power is neither collapsing nor increasing exponentially. Instead, it shows China finding a new “settling point” — with power below that of the United States but well ahead of any other country in Asia.
On the parameters of defense and security, China still has scope for growth. China’s Military capability increased slightly as it added more new capabilities than other Index countries.
But the People’s Liberation Army is still facing the deficiency is projecting power beyond its borders. The survey assesses that although China will not exceed the US in terms of overall Military Capability for the foreseeable future, that may not be needed to achieve its strategic objectives in East Asia, including Taiwan and the South China Sea.
