Since December 4, 1971, the Indian Navy has been celebrating Navy Day. On that day, the Indian Navy had an undeniable maritime superiority over Pakistan. But in 2024, the force is facing the challenge of a burgeoning Pakistan naval might propped up with the support of China.
In sync with the Indian Army, which is maintaining readiness for a two-and-a-half-front war, the Indian Navy also needs to calibrate itself to take on Pakistan, China, and pirates.
Indian Navy Chief Admiral Dinesh K Tripathi, in his annual press conference ahead of Navy Day, put into words what has been feared for a long time – Pakistan choosing to modernize its navy despite a debilitating economy – all supported by China.
As reported by the EurAsian Times earlier, despite its tactical advantage over the Pakistan Navy, the Indian Navy is playing catch up with its Pakistan counterpart. The Pakistan Navy aspires to have one of Asia’s largest and most modern submarine forces.
While the Indian Navy is yet to award the contract for its first Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) equipped submarine, work has already started on Pakistan’s latest Hangor class submarine built by China.
As per the current progress, the Hangor submarines are expected to join the Pakistan Navy by the late 2020s and early 2030s. Upon completion, the submarines will join the Pakistan Navy’s fleet, taking the strength of AIP-equipped boats to 11.
It already has three upgraded Khalid class (Agosta 90B) submarines. The Pakistan Navy is also seeking an unspecified number of shallow-water attack submarines (SWATS), potentially giving Pakistan one of the largest sub-surface fleets in Asia.
These submarines are equipped with advanced sensors and modern armaments, which slightly tilts the tactical power balance in favor of Pakistan. These diesel attack submarines align with the Pakistan Navy’s offensive sea denial strategy, which prioritizes using submarines and missile-carrying maritime patrol aircraft in naval warfare.
In what could complicate the Indian Navy’s underwater battleground, there have been reports that the Pakistan Navy is exploring the option of having sea-based deterrence by equipping the under-construction Chinese submarines with tactical nuclear weapons to have an “assured” second-strike capability.
In comparison, the Indian submarine fleet currently has 16 conventional submarines. Apart from the six recently built submarines, the rest are over 30 years old and approaching their decommissioning date. India’s aging Shishumar (HDW) class and Sindughosh (Kilo) class submarines are facing spare parts issues because of Russia’s Ukraine war.
Admiral Tripathi expressed his surprise that Pakistan is building or getting ships and submarines despite its struggling economy. “Obviously, they have decided to choose weapons over welfare of their people,” Tripathi said. The Admiral added that China was “definitely interested” in strengthening the Pakistan Navy.
Despite being cash-strapped, Pakistan is matching the prowess of the Indian Navy ship by ship. As the only Indian Navy-operated port in the country is coming to life and set to become the largest naval base east of the Suez Canal, Pakistan has also accelerated its efforts to have one of Asia’s largest naval fleets by enlarging its surface fleet to 50 warships along with a subsurface fleet of 11 submarines. Of the 50 surface ships the Pakistan Navy aspires to operate, 20 are expected to be “major surface vessels” like frigates and corvettes.
Undoubtedly, the Indian Navy needs more submarines to protect its 7500 km coastline and pose deterrence to Pakistan and China. The latest in its fleet, the Kalvari class submarines, are reported to have frequently patrolled Pakistan’s Makran coast, some six hours from Mumbai. They were operationally deployed outside Karachi and Gwadar harbor during Balakot operations in 2019.
Despite sanctions, its Karachi Shipyards and Engineering Works (KSEW) is undergoing a major capability boost in shipbuilding. One of Pakistan’s main shipyards, the KSEW, has begun using a Syncrolift shift lift-and-transfer system. Ordered in 2017, the ship lift allows KSEW to manufacture 13 ships on land and move hulls to dockyards for launching and sea trials.
KSEW has also expanded with a new construction hall and fabrication facility, which will cover all aspects of building larger naval warships and overhaul and integrate new subsystems into older ships.
The KSEW’s capability building means it can support vessels of up to 8,000 tons, indicating that it may be eyeing heavier shipbuilding like that of frigates, destroyers, or auxiliary vessels in the future.
China In India’s Backyard
Alongside strengthening the Pakistan Navy, the People Liberation Army Navy’s forays into the Indian Ocean Region have been on the rise.
Commenting on China’s forays into the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), Admiral Tripathi said the Indian Navy was keeping a close watch on overall maritime activities in the IOR, including that of the People’s Liberation Army Navy ships, as well as Chinese research and satellite tracking vessels.
Chinese submarines and warships will dock right under India’s nose very soon. Along with supplying submarines to the Bangladesh Navy, China is constructing a port in Cox’s Bazar, which was inaugurated in 2023.
Satellite imagery suggests that China has made significant progress on the naval base, and its size indicates that the PLA Navy will soon gain “logistical access” to it.
Chinese warships docked for the first time at Chittagong port in October 2024.
China has put Sri Lanka under its thumb after it acquired the lease of Hambantota port, which the Chinese companies built. Sri Lanka gave Beijing a port right under India’s nose after the island nation failed to pay the Chinese firms.
Beginning January 1, 2024, the island nation put a year-long moratorium on foreign research vessels operating in its waters. However, the moratorium will end in less than a month. In the meantime, the Chinese research vessels docked at the Maldives.
Recalibrating To Take On The Rising Threat
Admiral Tripathi said that the force is recalibrating its strategy to meet the challenge.
“That is why we are tweaking our concepts to be able to tackle all threats from our neighbors,” the Admiral explained.
The Navy has redoubled the focus on the infusion of niche and disruptive technologies. “We have been closely monitoring technological enhancement and the changing character of warfare. We have accordingly redoubled our focus on the infusion of niche and disruptive technologies – AI, ML, Robotics, and Quantum Computing,” the Navy Chief said.
The Indian Navy’s undersea combatant arm, aka nuclear-powered attack submarine (SSN) fleet, faces a yawning chasm vis-à-vis that of China. That is why despite being an expensive proposition, the Indian government has given its nod for constructing two SSN boats, the apex predators in undersea warfare. The nod came after the Indian Navy sent its proposal nearly five years ago.
Nuclear-powered submarines are so critical for the Indian Navy to match the growing power of PLAN that the former has reportedly put on hold its project to build a 65,000-ton Indigenous Aircraft Carrier (IAC)-2 in favor of the SSN project. After all, SSNs are underwater fighter jets that can hunt nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs).
India also operationalized its sea leg of nuclear deterrence. It has test-launched a long-range ballistic missile K-4 from its indigenous nuclear-powered submarine INS Arighat, bringing most of the area in the Chinese mainland within its striking range.
The Indian Navy is expected to finalize the deal for 26 Rafale M fighter jets by the end of this year, boosting its power projection capability in the Indian Ocean Region. Negotiations with the French Naval Group are also ongoing to build three additional Scorpene-class submarines at Mazagon Dockyards Limited. In the coming years, the Indian Navy will also receive MQ9 predators that will help it keep an eye on its area of responsibility from the Gulf of Aden to the Malacca Strait.
First Responder In The Indian Ocean Region
While the Chinese PLA Navy, despite its increasing size, is still working towards becoming a true blue-water navy capable of operating much beyond its shores, the Indian Navy and the Indian Air Force pooled their resources to para-drop marine commandos from Boeing C-17 Globemaster to rescue a hijacked merchant vessel 1400 nautical miles from the Indian shores.
The message was loud and clear that India is the ‘First Responder in the Indian Ocean Region.’
It was the first insertion of marine commandos through airdrop on high seas. A rescue right out of Hollywood flick Captain Phillips, the Indian forces executed the anti-piracy operation on the high seas that unfolded for over 40 hours.
The Indian Navy would like to maintain its position as the First Responder in the IoR, and it will require resources—both in terms of warships and personnel.
It remains to be seen how the Indian Navy will transform to meet the challenges of two and a half front of war.
