The South Caucasus seems to be sliding back into another war. More than a month after Armenia and Azerbaijan announced the completion of a draft peace treaty to end nearly four decades of conflict, the agreement remains unsigned, and tensions are escalating dangerously. Both nations are blaming each other for military buildup and ceasefire violations on the volatile border.
In the midst of these rising tensions, Armenia just wrapped up its joint military drills with Iran. The military exercise, named ‘Peace,’ involved Armenian special forces and Iran’s Ashura Division of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Ground Forces. It was held in the sensitive border region of Nodruz, close to the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan.
Iran’s IRGC Ground Forces Operational Deputy Commander Valiollah Madani stated that the exercises aimed to strengthen cooperation and preserve the sovereignty of neighboring countries—a veiled reference to concerns over Azerbaijan’s territorial ambitions.
For Armenia, the drills signal a deepening alignment with Iran, particularly after Yerevan’s withdrawal from the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and disappointment with Western security guarantees.
Iran has repeatedly stressed that it is firmly opposed to any territorial changes in the Caucasus. In May 2024, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei stressed Iran’s heightened sensitivity to border issues involving Armenia. His stance was later reinforced by IRGC member and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who reassured Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan that Iran would firmly oppose any redrawing of regional borders.
In July 2024, the Long War Journal reported that Iran and Armenia had signed a US$500 million arms deal under which Tehran would supply Yerevan with military equipment, including Shahed 136, Shahed 129, Shahed 197, and Mohajer drones, as well as air defense missile systems like the 3rd Khordad, Majid, 15th Khordad, and Arman.
Meanwhile, as Tehran and Yerevan were holding joint military drills on April 9-10, Azerbaijan was hosting Israeli and Turkish delegations to discuss the evolving situation in Syria, where Israel has struck at least three Turkish airbases as part of efforts to prevent the establishment of Ankara’s military presence there.
Notably, during the Azerbaijan and Armenia conflict in 2020 and 2023, Baku was supplied with Turkish drones and Israeli weapon systems, which helped it tip the power balance in its favor and expel Armenian forces from the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave.
Repeated Ceasefire Violations Since The Peace Agreement
During the past week, both sides have accused each other of ceasefire violations. On April 11, Azerbaijan accused Armenia of violating the ceasefire, claiming that Yerevan forces fired unprovoked from the direction of Goris in Syunik and Vardenis and Chambarak in Gegharkunik.
Notably, Azerbaijan has accused Armenia of 24 ceasefire violations since the March 13 announcement that the two warring sides had agreed on the terms of a historic peace deal.
While Armenia denied the charges, on April 13, the Armenian Defense Ministry accused Azerbaijan of violating the ceasefire in the direction of the Khnatsakh [village] in the Syunik Province.
The ministry additionally called on the Azerbaijani side to ‘conduct an investigation into the shelling of the Khnatsakh cultural centre and to provide public explanations’.
Worryingly, both sides have accused each other of more than 30 ceasefire violations in the last month. The rising incidents and accusations of ceasefire violations, which have been ongoing for over a month now, clearly show the complexities of reaching a lasting peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
The peace agreement announced on March 13 is still waiting to be signed. However, a few days after the public announcement, Azerbaijan accused Armenia of preparing for war. Now, new videos are doing the rounds on social media showing Armenia reportedly deploying additional military forces to the de facto border with Nakhchivan, Azerbaijan.
The videos, published on platform X and Telegram, allegedly show Armenian forces amassing on the border and making bunkers. The EurAsian Times cannot independently verify the authenticity of these videos.
However, the accusations of ceasefire violations and arms build-up on the sensitive border clearly establish the rising tensions between the two sides. This also shows that the peace agreement will not be signed soon.
The Complexities Of The Peace Agreement
On March 13, 2025, Armenian and Azerbaijani officials declared that they had finalized the text of a peace treaty aimed at resolving their long-standing dispute, primarily centered on the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The announcement was hailed as a breakthrough, with international leaders, including U.S. President Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron, expressing optimism for lasting peace.
However, over a month later, the agreement remains in limbo, with both sides pointing fingers over delays and alleged provocations.
While the terms of the treaty are not in the public domain, what is known so far is that Baku demands that Yerevan recognize Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh on a constitutional level. This would require a national referendum in Armenia to amend the constitution.
In Yerevan, this would be seen as a complete capitulation in front of Azerbaijan. This would make the Pashinyan government extremely unpopular ahead of the crucial parliamentary elections in 2026.
Further, as per news reports, the draft of the peace treaty also refers to abolishing the “obsolete” Minsk Group, prohibiting the EU’s Monitoring Mission (EUMA) along the shared border, and withdrawing legal claims from international courts. This will be a setback not only to Armenia but also to the EU, and it can signal the end of Europe’s influence in the South Caucasus with a rising role for Turkey and Iran.
The peace draft also does not address the tricky issue of Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave. Baku demands that Armenia must provide it with a land corridor, the Zangezur corridor, to connect the Azerbaijani mainland with its Nakhchivan exclave.
A Peace Treaty Or Prelude To A New War?
Given these complexities, it is not clear when this peace agreement will be signed or if it will be signed at all. However, since the two states finalized the treaty text on March 13, talks in Azerbaijan have been far more about war than peace.
Within 24 hours of the peace treaty draft announcement, Caliber.az, a news outlet closely aligned with the Azerbaijani government, published a commentary accusing Yerevan of preparing to launch a military offensive.
“A new war with Azerbaijan, … may well break out in a few weeks, after the neighboring country begins to gather reservists in April. If a country actively increases its arsenal, focusing on offensive systems, this indicates not only strengthening its defense capability but also preparation for future military actions,” the article said.
Baku has also indicated that it considers Armenia’s recent proposal concerning a land connection between the Azerbaijani mainland and the Nakhchivan exclave unsatisfactory.
As the unsigned peace treaty gathers dust, the South Caucasus teeters on the brink. While limited in scope, the Armenia-Iran drills have underscored the region’s shifting alliances and the fragility of the ceasefire.
It seems that while a historic peace agreement is ready, both sides are preparing for another showdown of force to achieve by military means what diplomacy has failed to achieve.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from The University of Sheffield, UK.
- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
