Turkey and Israel are fast ambling towards direct military confrontation as the two countries find each other on opposite sides in the ongoing Syrian conflict. Also, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been fueling anti-Israeli sentiment in his country since Israel’s attack on Gaza in 2023.
After Turkey-backed HTS rebels captured the Syrian capital, Damascus, the Turkish military presence in the region has increased manifold. Turkish forces and their allied groups have been targeting the Kurds in Syria. These Kurds have been under the protection of 2,000 US troops. Now, these Kurds have sought help from Israel.
According to the Nagel Committee’s latest report on the defense budget and security strategy, Israel must prepare itself for a direct confrontation with Turkey.
The report says the threat from Syria could evolve into something even more dangerous than the Iranian threat. The report warns that Turkish-backed forces might act as proxies, fueling regional instability.
The Nagel committee has been established by the Israeli government to look into the changing geopolitical landscape in the Middle East.
Following the surprise offensive by Hamas on October 7, 2023, multiple fronts have opened in the region. Turkey and Israel are likely to be the newest front in the region. Turkey has been at odds with Israel in the past, during previous confrontations it has had with Hamas. But this time, it is different.
The regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fell on December 8, 2024. This happened after a major offensive by opposition forces spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and supported by the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army. The opposition forces managed to capture Damascus, which led to Assad fleeing to Russia.
The fall of Assad’s regime marked the end of over 13 years of civil war and more than 50 years of Assad family rule in Syria. The swift collapse of the regime was a significant shock to many, including Assad’s supporters and the international community.
The fall put a question mark on the autonomy of the US-backed Kurdish groups in Syria. Israel has maintained covert relations with the Kurds, seeing them as a possible ally against shared enemies.
Turkey has been seeking to gain influence in Syria, which shares a border with Israel. This aspiration can disrupt the peace on the border with Israel, leading to direct armed confrontation with Turkey.
“There is a chance of a future military confrontation between Israel and Turkey,” Prof. Efrat Aviv, an expert on Turkey from Bar-Ilan’s Department of General History and the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, told The Media Line. “This is unprecedented, as are all events witnessed in the region recently.”
Turkey supports the rebel group that currently leads Syria, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, putting Ankara in a position to influence the country’s new leaders. At the same time, Turkey has long seen Syria’s Kurdish forces as a threat.
Since Assad’s ouster, Israel has carried out hundreds of airstrikes on targets in Syria and has seized control of a demilitarized buffer zone established in a 1974 ceasefire.
Putting Israel And Turkey On Warpath
The relationship between the two countries has been experiencing a downward spiral. Following Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza, Erdogan severed all ties with Israel. The two countries put up trade restrictions against each other in April 2024.
Turkey also joined the South African petition accusing Israel of genocide in Gaza at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) last year. Throughout the war, Ankara has supplied Palestinians in Gaza with tons of humanitarian aid.
The power vacuum in Syria has made both countries put boots on the ground, albeit in different areas so far. But Turkey aims to crush Kurdish independence aspirations, a goal that Israel might not be amenable to. The Kurdish community has been important for Israel to counterbalance Iranian influence in the region.
Nagel Committee Recommendation
The Nagel Committee submitted its recommendations to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Israel Katz, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich on January 6, outlining a comprehensive strategy to address emerging threats.
The committee proposes increasing the defense budget by up to NIS 15 billion (US$4.14 billion) annually over the next five years to ensure the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are equipped to handle challenges posed by Turkey, alongside other regional threats.
To prepare for a potential confrontation with Turkey, the committee recommended acquiring additional F-15 fighter jets, refueling aircraft, drones, and satellites to strengthen Israel’s long-range strike capabilities.
The report called for enhancing multi-layered air defense capabilities, including the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow systems, and the newly operational Iron Beam laser-based defense system.
It recommended constructing a fortified security barrier along the Jordan Valley, which would mark a significant shift in Israel’s defensive strategy despite potential diplomatic ramifications from Jordan.
