From sending its armada to support Islamabad during the 1971 war against India to sanctioning a Pakistani state-owned enterprise trying to develop long-range ballistic missiles that threaten Washington, the US-Pakistan relations have come full circle.
As per the Pentagon’s assessment, Pakistan is striving to join a small list of adversaries – Russia, North Korea, and China that can strike the United States territory. Islamabad’s sophisticated missile development program that brings territory outside South Asia within its striking range is inimical to the interests of the United States.
This is the first time that the US has sanctioned a Pakistani state-owned enterprise tied to missile development. Sanctions have been imposed on four Pakistani entities, including the state-owned National Development Complex (NDC), for their role in advancing Pakistan’s missile program.
The NDC has worked to acquire items in furtherance of Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile program – including special vehicle chassis intended to be used as launch support equipment for ballistic missiles and missile testing equipment. As per the US assessment, the NDC is responsible for Pakistan’s development of ballistic missiles, including the Shaheen-series ballistic missiles.
The US’ Principal deputy national security advisor, Jon Finer, expressed concerns over Pakistan’s missile development activities at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace event.
According to Finer, “If these trend lines (advancement in Pakistan’s long-range missiles) continue, Pakistan will have the capability to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including the United States, raising real questions about Pakistan’s intentions.”
Finer pointed out that only a small group of nations – Russia, North Korea, and China possess nuclear weapons and missile capabilities capable of directly reaching the US, making Pakistan’s actions particularly concerning. “It is hard for us to see Pakistan’s actions as anything other than an emerging threat to the United States,” Finer said.
Pakistan’s Quest To Match Indian Missiles
The year 2024 has seen the regional security balance in South Asia being altered as India undertook a series of missile tests that the experts saw as adopting a more flexible deterrence vis-à-vis its two aggressive nuclear-powered countries – China and Pakistan.
Most of India’s military advancements have been made with an eye on China. However, despite grappling with economic woes, Pakistan is striving hard to match India’s pace of arms acquisition.
India has been capable of striking the entire territory of its neighboring adversary in the West, Pakistan. New Delhi’s pursuit of longer-range systems, such as the Agni-V and submarine-launched ballistic missiles, is oriented at China, which is expanding its nuclear arsenal and has developed a larger missile force.
On March 11, India successfully test-fired a long-range ballistic missile, Agni-V, with Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) technology. MIRVs can penetrate ballistic missile defenses by overwhelming the defense system of the adversaries trying to intercept the multiple warheads.
A MIRVed missile would be armed with multiple warheads, allowing a single missile to hit several different targets at once or hit a single target with multiple warheads. Such a technology would also make MIRVs harder to intercept with anti-missile technology.
The 50-tonne Agni-V’s operational deployment enhanced India’s deterrence posture against China, which has missiles like the Dong Feng-41. With a range of 12,000-15,000 kilometers, the DF-41 can hit any Indian city. Agni-V brought the northernmost part of China within India’s striking range, and its canister launch paved the way for a swifter launch.
However, American scientists have claimed that the technology can embolden the Indian authorities to strike and pre-emptively disarm Pakistan in anticipation of a conflict.
In November, India successfully tested its first long-range hypersonic missile. This hypersonic missile is designed to carry various payloads for the armed forces for ranges greater than 1,500 kilometers (km). The missile is reportedly capable of traveling at Mach 6 (six times the speed of sound) and executing maneuvers mid-flight, making it difficult to intercept with existing missile and air defense systems.
In November end, India operationalized its sea leg of nuclear deterrence as it test-launched a long-range ballistic missile from its indigenous nuclear-powered submarine, bringing most of the area in the Chinese mainland within its striking range.
India is overhauling its Strategic Forces Command (SFC), also known as Strategic Nuclear Command, one missile at a time. In April, it tested its new-generation Agni-Prime ballistic missile, which has a 2,000-kilometer range and will counter threats from Pakistan.
As Indian scientists increased the range of their missiles, the technology also evolved in terms of sophistication. In what could be called backward integration of technology, efforts are now being made to replace the missiles’ older technologies with more advanced technologies.
Before Agni-P, India tested another technology in Agni-V, a feature absent in the previous variants of Agni—it is a canister-launch missile that ensures less maintenance and swifter deployment and firing. Agni-P also comes with canisterisation.
Canisterisation means “storing the missiles inside a sealed, climate-controlled tube” to protect them from environmental elements during transportation. It allows permanent warhead mating with the missile and does not require installation before launch. This helps reduce the time needed to launch nuclear weapons should a crisis break out.
India tested the canister technology for the first time on the Agni-V in 2015, giving the SFC required flexibility to swiftly transport and fire the ballistic missiles from anywhere they want.
The canister makes the missile highly mobile. The 50-tonne missile can be fired within a few minutes without compromising on reliability. The hermetically sealed canister also increases its shelf life and requires less maintenance.
How Much Punch Pakistan’s Missiles Pack?
Pakistan conducted its maiden MIRV test in January 2017 using the Ababeel medium-range ballistic missile. This missile is designed to carry multiple warheads and has a range of approximately 2,200 kilometers.
Pakistan’s Shaheen series of ballistic missiles, including Shaheen-I, Shaheen-II, and Shaheen-III, are central to its long-range capabilities. The Shaheen-III, with a range of approximately 2,750 kilometers, can reach targets across India and beyond. The missile is being developed to cover all parts of India, including the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, which are “being developed as strategic bases.”
In the 2017 military parade, Pakistan displayed ALCM Ra’ad-II with a range of 550 km. The increase in range would allow the missile to hit targets at a greater distance. The missile, with an extended range of 600 km, was tested in 2020. Pakistan’s need to develop a longer-range cruise missile with terrain-hugging capability and high accuracy to avoid detection might be driven by India’s modernization of its air defense system by procuring systems such as the S-400 Triumf from Russia.
Apart from these, it is speculated that an ICBM—Taimur, with a range of 7,000 km—is under development by Pakistan.
India’s Agni-V with MIRV technology represents a more advanced capability than Pakistan’s Ababeel missile. Also, Indian missiles have a longer range, covering more extensive areas, including parts of Europe and Africa. India’s development of a two-tiered missile defense system indicates a more comprehensive approach to missile defense compared to Pakistan.
Hence, the US sanctions have evoked a strong response from Pakistan’s foreign ministry, rejecting the move as “unfortunate and biased.” The ministry statement said Islamabad’s defense capabilities are aimed at safeguarding Pakistan’s sovereignty and preserving peace in South Asia.
“The latest installment of sanctions defies the objective of peace and security by aiming to accentuate military asymmetries,” the ministry said, apparently referring to Pakistan’s rivalry with nuclear-armed neighbor India.
Pakistan claims to be reacting to the threat posed by Indian missile development. However, its burgeoning defense ties with China give a nefarious tinge to its intentions – not just for India but also for the US.
