It has been over two years and nine months since Ukraine – which is seeking NATO membership – has been engaged in war with Russia, yet the end of this conflict remains uncertain.
Meanwhile, many other countries, including Cyprus, Armenia, and Georgia, are preparing to pursue NATO membership, with each country navigating unique challenges.
What Is NATO?
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), founded in 1949, was a 12-nation pact designed to unite powers against the Soviet Union’s expansion in Europe. Its founding members—Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the UK, and the US—signed the treaty in Washington, DC, where its anniversary is celebrated at the NATO summit.
Under its principle of collective defense, members agreed that if one of them is attacked, the others should help defend it. Though NATO doesn’t maintain its own standing army, its members unite for joint military action in response to crises.
The alliance’s goal initially was to counterbalance the Soviet Union. However, the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, paving the way for many Eastern European nations—Albania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, and others—to join NATO.
Today, NATO has 32 members across Europe and North America. Finland, which shares a 1,340 km border with Russia, joined in April 2023, and Sweden followed in March 2024. Both countries abandoned decades of neutrality after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, marking a significant shift in their security policies.
NATO expects its members to allocate at least 2% of their national income to defense. By 2024, 23 members are projected to meet this target, up from 10 in 2023 and just 7 in 2022. This financial commitment reflects the alliance’s evolving security demands.
Who’s Next In Line?
NATO’s appeal continues to grow, with several nations aspiring to join its security framework. At present, Ukraine, Georgia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina have formally expressed their desire for membership. Meanwhile, Cyprus and Armenia are also exploring potential alignment, though they face unique geopolitical and diplomatic hurdles, including opposition from existing members like Turkey.
Ukraine: Aiming To End The “Hot Phase” Of War
For Ukraine, NATO membership isn’t just a geopolitical goal—it’s a potential lifeline to ending the “hot phase” of its war with Russia.
Moscow has long opposed Ukraine’s entry into the alliance, viewing it as a direct threat to its borders. Despite this, NATO declared in 2008 that Ukraine could eventually join the organization.
The stakes escalated dramatically in 2022 when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In response, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for expedited NATO membership, seeing it as a critical step toward securing the country’s sovereignty. However, former NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg emphasized that it was “inevitable” that Ukraine would become a member, but not until its war with Russia ends.
In an interview with Sky News in late November 2024, President Volodymyr Zelensky commented on US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed peace plan. He hinted at a potential ceasefire deal under which NATO could extend its protective umbrella over the territory Ukraine currently controls. This, he suggested, would end the “hot phase of the war” and allow him to negotiate the return of the rest later “in a diplomatic way.”
For Ukraine, NATO membership remains a critical goal—not just for security but also as a step toward restoring sovereignty.
Cyprus: A Strategic Shift In Defense Policy
Cyprus is signaling a potential departure from its long-standing neutrality by exploring NATO membership as part of its broader strategy to enhance military deterrence.
The island nation is strengthening its defense ties with NATO, the US, and the European Union, seeking to modernize its military capabilities.
Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides recently emphasized the limitations faced by the National Guard due to Cyprus’s non-NATO status, attributing them to Turkey’s opposition. “The fact that the Republic of Cyprus cannot be a NATO member due to Turkey’s objections excludes the National Guard from many opportunities,” he stated. His remarks came after a meeting with US President Joe Biden, highlighting deepening defense cooperation between Cyprus and the United States.
According to President Christodoulides, Cyprus is considering NATO membership following military training and equipment support from the US. This marks a significant shift from its Cold War-era neutrality when Cyprus sought to balance relations between Washington and Moscow.
Unsurprisingly, Turkey, a NATO member since 1952, strongly opposes this move. The Turkish defense ministry has labeled Cyprus’s NATO aspirations as “unacceptable,” warning that such a step could jeopardize efforts to resolve the long-standing Cyprus dispute. Since NATO requires unanimous consent for new memberships, Turkey holds a critical veto over Cyprus’s bid.
Georgia: A Longstanding NATO Aspirant
Although not yet a NATO member, Georgia has maintained close ties with the alliance since 1994 and is recognized as an “aspirant country.” It actively participates in initiatives like the NATO-led Operation Sea Guardian and collaborates with NATO Allies and partners across various areas.
At the April 2008 Bucharest Summit, NATO pledged that Georgia would eventually join the alliance. However, despite this assurance, no concrete timeline or roadmap for membership has been provided.
A significant barrier is Georgia’s unresolved territorial disputes. Following a brief war with Russia in August 2008, Moscow recognized the independence of Georgia’s regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, where Russian troops remain stationed. NATO’s principle of not admitting countries with active conflicts or occupied territories has further complicated Georgia’s path to membership.
In December 2008, NATO foreign ministers enhanced the NATO-Georgia Commission to help Georgia meet membership requirements, but progress toward the Membership Action Plan (MAP) has remained stalled.
Some experts propose that Georgia pursue NATO membership, excluding the Moscow-controlled regions. This would allow Georgia to negotiate the return of these regions in the future, with the possibility of extending alliance protection to these areas once Tbilisi regains sovereignty over them. However, this approach faces political and strategic challenges.
The war in Ukraine has amplified concerns about Georgia’s security, with fears that it could be Moscow’s next target. This has led the Georgian government to recalibrate its approach to NATO membership, balancing its aspirations with the geopolitical realities of being in Russia’s shadow.
Armenia: Navigating Security Partnerships Amid Shifting Alliances
Since gaining independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Armenia has sought closer Euro-Atlantic ties, including a longstanding partnership with NATO. However, its position remains complex, balancing historical ties with Russia against a growing interest in diversifying its security relationships.
A founding member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Armenia has grown increasingly critical of the bloc. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan denounced the CSTO in June 2022 for failing to support Armenia during its conflict with Azerbaijan. This came to a head in September 2022 when Azerbaijan launched attacks and seized Armenian-controlled territory. Yerevan invoked CSTO Article 4, which guarantees mutual defense, but received little tangible support, further straining relations.
By September 2023, Pashinyan publicly acknowledged that relying solely on Russia for Armenia’s security was a “strategic mistake.” His government has since sought to diversify its security arrangements, engaging more actively with the European Union and the United States. In February 2024, Pashinyan went so far as to describe the CSTO as “a threat to the national security of Armenia.”
Despite these shifts, Armenia’s relationship with NATO remains rooted in partnership rather than membership aspirations. Since joining the North Atlantic Cooperation Council in 1992 and the Partnership for Peace in 1994, Armenia has collaborated with NATO for over 30 years. Notably, it has been a key contributor to the NATO-led KFOR peacekeeping mission in Kosovo for nearly two decades.
While Armenian authorities express a desire to deepen cooperation with NATO, they emphasize that there are “no current plans to seek membership.” Experts suggest that the growing involvement of Western powers in the region will be pivotal in shaping the future of Armenia-NATO relations.
Bosnia And Herzegovina: Navigating Challenges On The Path To NATO
Bosnia and Herzegovina, a prospective NATO member, was invited to join the Membership Action Plan (MAP) in April 2010, marking a significant step in its Euro-Atlantic integration.
While participation in MAP is a pathway to membership, it does not guarantee accession. NATO considers the Western Balkans—and Bosnia and Herzegovina at its core—crucial for ensuring a free and peaceful Europe. Similarly, Bosnia and Herzegovina has identified Euro-Atlantic integration as a strategic priority, fostering a long-standing relationship with the alliance.
Since beginning accession negotiations in 2008, Bosnia and Herzegovina has made some progress, including achieving candidate status in 2022. However, its journey toward NATO membership remains incomplete, and it is facing significant hurdles, including Russian influence and political instability.
Russia has threatened the Bosnian state not to join NATO. Russia also supports Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik, who uses his constitutional power-sharing arrangement to block Euro-Atlantic integration.
Bosnia and Herzegovina’s complex political system, rooted in a power-sharing arrangement between ethnic groups, often hampers consensus-building. Nationalist rhetoric and divisive politics further exacerbate the situation. Also, persistent economic stagnation and a significant outflow of talent weaken the country’s development and undermine political stability.
The Expanding Alliance
As geopolitical tensions rise, several nations seek membership in NATO, the world’s foremost collective defense alliance. From the ongoing conflict in Ukraine to shifting defense policies in Cyprus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, and Armenia, these nations face unique challenges on their paths to membership.
The journey to NATO is not just about meeting defense and political requirements but also about navigating complex international relations and regional conflicts.
- Shubhangi Palve is a defense and aerospace journalist. Before joining the EurAsian Times, she worked for ET Prime. In this capacity, she focused on covering defense strategies and the defense sector from a financial perspective. She offers over 15 years of extensive experience in the media industry, spanning print, electronic, and online domains.
- Contact the author at shubhapalve (at) gmail.com
