Ukraine claims that Russia attacked a Ukrainian city with an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM), the first-ever reported combat use of a weapon developed to deliver long-distance nuclear strikes.
Russia has not made an official statement yet, and experts are unsure about Ukrainian claims.
Russian forces attacked the eastern Ukrainian city of Dnipro in the wee hours of November 21, mostly targeting its vital infrastructure. However, Ukraine claims that for the first time in almost three years of conflict—which began in February 2022 with the Russian invasion—an ICBM was used in an attack.
The Ukrainian Air Force said in a statement posted on Telegram that Russia fired an ICBM, a potent long-range weapon that can hit targets thousands of kilometers away, with non-nuclear warheads from Astrakhan in southern Russia.
“The assault included an ICBM launched from Russia’s Astrakhan region, a Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missile fired from a MiG-31K jet in the Tambov region, and seven Kh-101 cruise missiles launched by Tu-95MS bombers near the Volgograd region,” read the statement. Without revealing the type of ICBM used in the attack or providing any credible evidence, the statement added that “No information on casualties or injuries has been reported so far.”
The local Ukrainian media reports later in the day suggested that explosions caused in Dnipro by Russian missile attacks started fires and caused significant damage to an industrial site as well as to critical infrastructure.
However, a Western official later told CNN that the weapon appears to have been a shorter-range ballistic missile (SRBM)—not an ICBM. The main difference between an ICBM and other types of ballistic missiles is only in their respective ranges. ICBMs can travel thousands of miles—crossing continents—whereas ballistic missiles have shorter ranges.
As soon as the Ukrainian Air Force notified the attack, military bloggers and experts assessed that the missile was likely fired from Kapustin Yar, a rocket launch complex in Astrakhan Oblast. Some bloggers who ardently follow the conflict said the missile was launched from a site that was attacked by Ukraine using long-range drones in July.
The news of an ICBM strike created a lot of frenzy on the internet. Some experts claimed that Russia fired the RS-26 Rubezh missile, which has a demonstrated range of about 5,800 kilometers and is based on the RS-24 Yars. Some military bloggers said the Russian missile was highly inaccurate and had a 200-meter Circular Error probability (CEP), a measure of a missile’s precision.
Some others reacted to the news with skepticism, saying that it was obnoxious that Russia would fire an ICBM on a target that is within 1,000 kilometers of the launch site.
ICBMs are fired on targets thousands of kilometers away and are very expensive to build. Some netizens speculated on social media whether it was likely a North Korean or Iranian ballistic missile mistaken for an ICBM. They assessed the targets in Dnipro to be about 700-800 kilometers away from Kapustin Yar, making the choice of missile absurd.
Many experts speculated that the ICBM launch was likely to serve as a warning to Ukraine and the US-led NATO alliance, as ICBMs are strategic weapons designed to deliver nuclear warheads.
Jessica Berlin, a Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, wrote on the social media site X (formerly Twitter): “Russia’s use of an ICBM armed with a conventional warhead against #Ukraine is a tepid attempt to inspire fear in the West. The only thing it should inspire is increased Western support for Ukrainian air defense and long-range missile strikes against Russia.”
Missile For Missile: Escalation In Ukraine?
An ICBM attack is considered lethal because these missiles, by nature, are primarily designed for delivering nuclear warheads.
Even when equipped with a conventional warhead, an ICBM is mighty and lethal as it supports multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs). This means a single missile can carry multiple warheads to hit separate targets.
Due to their high speeds, the warheads are hard to intercept and provide little warning. Only a few countries have Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles in their inventory. And Ukraine, for one, does not.
As soon as the unverified news broke out, several Western media outlets and analysts called the attack a major escalation by Russia.
While a conventional missile attack does not exactly pass off as escalation, many speculated that it may be a “warning” of an imminent nuclear attack. Russia recently modified its nuclear doctrine, a move which has been seen as another attempt at saber-rattling and scaring Kyiv and its allies in the West into dropping long-range attacks on its territory.
Moreover, the “escalation” follows US President Joe Biden’s approval for Kyiv to use the US-supplied long-range ATACMS missiles to hit targets deep inside Russia. Other NATO countries like the UK and France also approved requests for the use of their long-range missiles on Russian territory. This authorization from Western countries prompted the Kremlin to warn of the “consequences.”
After obtaining the long-due approval from its allies, Ukraine struck Russia with ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles, photos and videos of which have appeared on social media. The ATACMS long-range missile was fired against an ammunition depot in Russia’s Bryansk region, whereas the Storm Shadow allegedly hit the Kursk region. Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov refused to confirm or deny using the Anglo-French-origin missiles.
The Russian ICBM attack came on the day when several embassies in Ukraine were shut amid fears of a ‘significant air attack’ after the major long-range Ukrainian strike on Russia.
Amid all this brouhaha, Russia warned that a missile defense base set up in Poland would become a legitimate target for Russian attack. At a briefing on November 21, Maria Zakharova, a spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, said that opening the US missile defense base in Poland is a provocative step that threatens strategic stability and raises the possibility of nuclear conflict.
“The US missile defense base in Poland has long been among the priority targets for Russian forces,” Zakharova said. “The nature and level of threats posed by such Western military installations make the missile defense base in Poland a long-standing addition to the list of priority targets for potential engagement.”
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