OPED By Air Marshal Anil Khosla (R)
Following the collapse of the Assad regime, Israel launched Operation Bashan Arrow on December 8 to dismantle Syria’s military capabilities.
Named after the ancient biblical region of Bashan, which included parts of the modern-day Golan Heights, the operation has profound implications for regional stability, geopolitics, and military strategy.
Background And Objectives
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in late 2024 led to a chaotic power vacuum. This collapse came amidst years of internal strife, international intervention, and the rising influence of extremist factions like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
For Israel, the disintegration of the Assad regime posed both risks and opportunities. The risk was the proliferation of advanced weapons among hostile actors, especially Iranian proxies and extremist groups. The opportunity was to secure the strategically vital Golan Heights further and neutralize long-standing threats from the Syrian military.
Israel launched Operation Bashan Arrow to prevent advanced weaponry, including missiles and aircraft, from falling into hostile hands, notably Iranian-backed militias or extremist groups. This was critical for securing the Israeli-Syrian border and neutralizing threats to Israel’s northern front.
Execution Of The Operation
The Israeli Air Force (IAF) deployed an unprecedented 350 aircraft, about half the size of the Israeli Air Force, conducting hundreds of sorties across Syria.
It was one of its most comprehensive air campaigns in history. Key targets included military bases, air defense systems, missile stockpiles, and command centers in Damascus, Tartus, Homs, and Latakia.
The operation obliterated Syrian air capabilities, including MiG-29 fighter jets and cruise missiles. Simultaneously, the Israeli Navy targeted Syria’s naval fleet, destroying 15 missile-equipped vessels at the al-Beida and Latakia ports. This eliminated maritime threats, securing Israel’s coastal borders and reducing risks to international shipping lanes.
On land, Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) moved to establish a buffer zone in the demilitarized area along the Golan Heights. The IDF denied crossing into core Syrian territory, maintaining operations within the zone to prevent spillover effects from the conflict.
Operation Bashan Arrow was a comprehensive demonstration of the effectiveness of coordinated multi-domain operations. Israel’s use of air, naval, and ground forces, combined with intelligence-driven targeting, underscores the evolution of military strategy in asymmetric conflicts.
Strategic And Tactical Impact
Operation Bashan Arrow dismantled 70–80% of Syria’s military assets. The destruction of strategic stockpiles prevented terrorist organizations from utilizing advanced weaponry. Notably, this operation has significantly shifted the balance of power in the region. Iran, a key backer of Assad, now faces reduced influence in Syria, while Israel solidifies its strategic position.
However, this could push Iran to intensify its proxy activities elsewhere, such as in Lebanon or Iraq.
Regional And International Reactions
The operation drew criticism from Arab nations and international observers, who accused Israel of overreach and destabilization. The concerns of the international community were palpable, with Arab states condemning the operation, particularly the IDF’s occupation of the buffer zone. They viewed it as a violation of Syrian sovereignty, even in the absence of a stable Syrian government.
Qatari media labeled it an “escalation” and accused Israel of exploiting Syria’s disarray. The United Nations expressed grave concerns over regional instability, urging de-escalation to foster a political transition in Syria. Geir Pedersen, the UN envoy to Syria, emphasized the need for de-escalation to facilitate Syria’s political transition.
Regional Security And Israel’s Position
For Israel, the operation underscored its military superiority and willingness to act unilaterally for national security, even at the risk of provoking a backlash from neighboring countries and militant groups. The campaign also demonstrated the Israeli military’s advanced capabilities in air, sea, and cyber warfare.
Challenges And Future Implications
While the operation was a tactical success, it strained Israel’s relations with the international community at large. The creation of a buffer zone may temporarily stabilize the border but could invite retaliatory actions from groups opposed to Israel’s presence.
With significant infrastructure destroyed, Syria faces additional challenges in rebuilding. This could prolong instability and make the country more vulnerable to external manipulation by regional powers.
Additionally, HTS’s rise complicates Israel’s security calculus, as the group with an Islamist ideology creates uncertainty about pragmatic coexistence with Israel. The long-term implications of these developments are complex and uncertain, adding a layer of gravity to the situation.
Conclusion
Operation Bashan Arrow represents a defining moment in Middle Eastern geopolitics; it reflects the complexities of modern warfare and the Middle East’s geopolitical challenges. By neutralizing Syrian military capabilities, Israel has secured its borders in the short term.
However, the operation’s long-term ramifications for regional stability are yet to be fully understood. As Syria grapples with reconstruction and a new political reality, Israel would have to navigate a complex web of alliances and adversaries to maintain its strategic edge.
The operation’s impact on the balance of power in the region and the potential for increased proxy activities by Iran in other countries underscores the need for continued analysis and vigilance.
- Air Marshal Anil Khosla PVSM, AVSM, VM, is a former Vice Chief of Air Staff (VCAS) of the Indian Air Force and AOC in C of Eastern Air Command.
- VIEWS PERSONAL OF THE AUTHOR
- He tweets at: @AnilKhosla16
