Back at the helm, Donald Trump begins his second term as U.S. President with a flurry of executive orders, including withdrawing from the World Health Organization (WHO). With China at the high table, an ongoing war, and a global economy heavily anchored around China and the U.S., Trump faces a world of changed alliances.
Will he revert to the days of ‘détente’ or continue the ‘neocon’ policies in vogue to maintain U.S. hegemony?” asked the Gateway House in its Weekly Briefing of January 23.
Commenting on President Trump’s oath-taking ceremony speech, Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said he thinks Trump’s team “will try to peel countries away from China.”
Adversaries
Who were Trump’s adversaries in the first term, and who are they now? How he is likely to handle them and to what degree of success is a subject of lively discussion.
During his first stint in the White House, the Trump administration publicly identified China, North Korea, and Iran as antagonists. These countries continue to be on the list of the Trump-2.0 administration. However, there is a marked difference in how they are handled now.
Earlier, Trump had tried to befriend Russia and North Korea publicly. But at the same time, he put pressure on China and Iran. In diplomatic parlance, one can say it was a show of divide and rule. However, to say that Trump made gains from that experience is not corroborated by ground realities.
Changed Scenario
However, the past four years have brought many changes in international political chemistry. We see new alignments coming up. The known adversaries of President Trump have forged a sort of alliance that should not be brushed aside as inconsequential. One important development we have noticed is that these dissenting countries have come closer since the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine war in 2022.
President Trump made important announcements during his election campaign and immediately after taking the oath of office.
He vowed to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, curb Iran’s nuclear program, and counter China while building up the US military power. In another statement, he warned that if Moscow did not advance the peace talks, it would endanger its own future. This is a mild reminder that the existing alignment may not survive the onslaught.
The new ground reality is that in the past few years, Washington’s two primary adversaries, President Xi of China and President Putin of Russia, have forged a “non-limits partnership,” and Beijing has been providing support to Russia to continue the fighting against Ukraine. Interestingly, Trump had hardly finished the oath-taking ceremony when Xi and Putin held a long phone call in which they were reported to have proposed “a further deepening of their strategic partnership,” reported Reuters on January 21.
Russia also signed strategic pacts with North Korea in June 2024 and Iran about a week ago. In this way, an informal alliance is shaping to counter any move of Washington that could hurt their interests.
Notably, former President Joe Biden’s ambassador to China had called it an “unholy alliance.” Some analysts consider it a loss of leverage for the US and its partners.
Dealing According To Merit
Trump has expressed his desire to get along with Russia. At the same time, he is trying to squeeze China on trade. This appears somewhat confusing if Washington strongly feels that the camaraderie between Russia and China is growing. Now, if Washington is thinking of squeezing Beijing in trade, the scope of drawing any advantages out of it will be limited because of Moscow’s partnership with Beijing. This is the opinion of Washington-based Asia Society Policy Institute expert Daniel Russel.
At a time when Russia was weathering the intense pressure of Western sanctions, China had come to its rescue by purchasing large quantities of Russian oil and a supply of dual-use goods.
Russia has also strengthened its relationship with North Korea. North Korean soldiers have been captured by the Ukrainian troops while fighting for the Russian side. Reports are that North Korea is also supplying weapons to Russia.
It is also reported that North Korea is advancing its nuclear program. And as regards Iran, even though Israeli attacks have weakened its proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas, it is hotly pursuing the building of nuclear weapons.
Sanctions notwithstanding, China is buying Iranian oil in huge quantities and for a much-reduced price. Trump’s policy during his first stint was to wreck Iran’s economy to force her to shut down its nuclear program. It is unlikely that President Trump will deviate from his earlier policy.
The entry of North Korea into the adversary group is a matter of serious concern. There is also an apprehension of Pakistan-North Korea’s secret deal for the exchange of nuclear know-how against procurement of missile technology.
Politics Is Interests
Robert Wood, former deputy US Ambassador to the UN under the Biden administration, had questioned Moscow’s commitments to Iran’s friendship, taking the cue from Moscow’s scurvy treatment of deposed Basher-al-Assad of Syria.
Wood’s cryptic comment was: “You try to divide them where you can (referring to the coming together of four adversaries). It is so critical to have and be able to rely on the kind of alliance we have because the US can’t take on all of these players by themselves.”
In conclusion, we may agree that a big change in regional and international strategies may be in the offing. The strength and reach of the adversaries working in tandem cannot be underestimated.
Particularly when President Trump is raising the Panama Canal, Bay of America, Greenland, and other geopolitical issues, the political landscape becomes more hazy and indistinguishable. At the same time, the United States has also had to iron out angularities in its dealings with the European Union.
The litmus test of the viability of his new blueprint lies in ending the war in Ukraine. Breaking the adversarial alliance is easier said than done. The world order is a two-way street.
- Prof. KN Pandita (Padma Shri) is the former director of the Center of Central Asian Studies at Kashmir University.
- This article contains the author’s personal views and does not represent EurAsian Times’ policies/views/opinions in any way.
- The author can be reached at knp627 (at) gmail.com
