The Pentagon’s 2024 annual report on Chinese military power evaluates that though China’s PLA Air Force (PLAAF) is already good and improving quickly, it is not yet a match to the air combat capabilities of the U.S. Air Force (USAF). However, analysts are asking if China’s unveiling of what it calls a sixth-generation fighter aircraft has shifted the power balance in the sky in Beijing’s favor.
The Pentagon report mentions that China has expanded the capabilities of its uncrewed aerial systems (UAS), which are now comparable to USAF systems. The report also mentions Chinese strides in air-to-air missiles, electronic warfare, bombers, and fifth-generation fighters. In some of these areas, it is closing up to US standards.
Chinese And US Bombers
China still operates the 1950s basic design vintage (albeit significantly upgraded) Xi’an H-6 bombers. Nearly 230 of this Cold War legacy aircraft were built. China operates around 180 of them. China’s yet-to-be-revealed H-20, a stealth, flying-wing design bomber, was expected to start flying in 2025. It can then become operational by around 2030.
USA has operated dedicated Bombers since the 1920s. They gained great experience in bomber employment in WW II and in all the wars thereafter. A Boeing B-29 Superfortress was used to drop the atomic bombs.
Among its current bombers is the Boeing B-52 Stratofortress strategic bomber (755 built) that made its first flight in 1952. The B-52 bomber celebrated its 50th anniversary in April 2002, making it the longest-serving combat aircraft in the world. As many as 76 B-52H were in service as of September 2023. The aircraft is getting upgrades to its engines, radar, avionics, and weapons and will fly till the 2050s.
Rockwell B-1 Lancer supersonic variable-sweep wing, heavy strategic bomber made its first flight in 1974, and 104 were built. The USAF had 45 B-1Bs in service as of July 2024. As many as 21 Northrop Grumman B-2 Spirit stealth bombers were built with its first flight in 1989. B-2s are known to have flown 33-hour-long missions with several inflight refueling. On October 16, this year, B-2As carried out strikes on weapons storage facilities in Yemen, including underground facilities owned by the Houthis. Clearly, the US bombers have seen great operational action.
Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider stealth bomber made its first flight in 2023. Three have been built, and over 100 are planned to be built. Clearly, China has a long way to go before catching up with the USA in terms of bombers.
Fifth & Sixth Generation Fighters
Meanwhile, China is rapidly building up and improving its fleet of J-20 Mighty Dragon stealth fifth-generation fighters. As many as 300 have already been built. PLAAF is also replacing older J-11s and Su-27s with J-20s, supported by advancements in domestic engine technologies like the WS-15, reducing China’s reliance on Russian-made engines.
Production rates have reportedly increased from 30 to 100 aircraft annually, and conservative estimates suggest that the PLAAF’s J-20 fleet could surpass 800 aircraft by 2030. They target to have nearly 1,500 by 2035.
The second, and a little smaller “F-35 look-alike”, J-35A is developing quickly. This will also have an aircraft carrier variant. China showcased its second fifth-generation stealth fighter jet this year at the Zhuhai air show.
China is still evolving a suitable power plant for the J-20 and is only gradually switching over from the still preferred Russian engines. The aircraft has very limited exercise exposure. J-20 was first shown at a domestic airshow only in 2016. In November 2024, the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) officially announced the twin-seat variant of the J-20, designated the J-20S.
J-20s still have to fly abroad for an airshow or exercise or offered for export. However, J-20s have begun limited operational patrols in the South and East China Seas. London-based GlobalData Plc estimated that in 2022, the Chengdu J-20 cost was US$100 million per aircraft, and the whole project cost was US$30 billion.
Comparatively, USAF has over 180 F-22s, and few have seen combat. Similarly, US armed forces have close to 630 F-35s. There are plans to acquire approximately 1,800 more. The F-35 program will have a stable production rate goal of about 156 aircraft per year for at least the next five years.
These include orders from nearly 20 global customers. As of July 2024, the average flyaway cost per plane is – US$82.5 million for the F-35A, US$109 million for the F-35B, and US$102.1 million for the F-35C. F-35s have seen significant combat in West Asia, including by the Israeli variant “Adir.” The USA is fairly ahead in 5th-generation aircraft and technologies, but the gap will reduce significantly by 2035.
However, on December 26, China unveiled its sixth-generation aircraft, stealing a march over the rest of the world. It has tentatively been labeled as “J-36”. The three-engine aircraft is visibly larger. More details will emerge in the coming days. Is it just showmanship, or have real sixth-generation technologies been imbibed in this aircraft yet to be seen?
Other Fighter Aircraft
China’s other fighter inventories are Shenyang J-11 (225), and Shenyang J-16 (280), both reverse engineered from Russia’s Su-27 family. Chengdu J-10 (588) had evolved from the Sino-Israel Lavi program. China also has Russian Sukhoi Su-27UBK (32), Su-30MKK (73), and Su-35 (24). All these are 4th generation aircraft. PLA Navy (PLAN) operates nearly 350 fighter aircraft; more significant among these are 72 Shenyang J11B/BS, Shenyang J-15, and 24 Sukhoi Su-30MKK.
USAF has close to 375 F-15s, 726 F-16C, and 261 A-10C aircraft as of September 2023. US Navy (USN) has 30 F-35C and 421 F/A-18 Super Hornets. US Marine Corps (USMC) operates 87 AV-8B Harrier II jump jets and 138 multirole F/A-18A/C/D in addition to 127 F-35 B/Cs.
Large Transport Aircraft
The USAF operates 860 transport aircraft. These include 52 C-5 Galaxy (127-ton load), 222 C-17 Globemaster III (77-ton), and 450 C-130 variants. USN has close to 150 transport aircraft, including significant numbers of C-130s.
China has around 260 transport aircraft. Among them, 26 Ilyushin Il-76 and 70 Xian Y-20 are big transport planes. The relatively smaller cargo fleet indicates a lack of global ambitions as of now. However, Y-20 numbers are growing, and this aircraft can carry 66 tons.
Force Multipliers
USAF operates 26 AEW&C/ELINT aircraft, including 15 E-3 Sentry AWACS. USAF also has 14 EW aircraft, mostly C-130 platform-based, and nearly 200 Reconnaissance aircraft. USAF operates nearly 500 FRA comprising mostly of KC-135 Stratotanker, KC-46 Pegasus, and KC-130.
USMC operates 64 KC-130 Super Hercules FRA. USN’s Maritime Patrol aircraft include 118 P-8 Poseidon and 8 P-3 Orion. USN has nearly 170 electronic warfare aircraft, most of which are EA-18 Growlers. USN has 83 E-2 Hawkeye AEW&C that can operate from aircraft carriers.
China has less than 30 AEW&C, including 11 Shaanxi KJ-200 AEW, 14 KJ-500, and 4 KJ-2000 AEW. This number is comparatively small compared to the vast expanse of the Western Pacific they have an immediate interest in.
China has relatively small quantities of special-purpose aircraft for reconnaissance, SIGINT, electronic warfare, maritime patrol, etc. These include 12 Shenyang J-16D EW fighters. China has a long way to go before catching up with the USA in terms of Force Multipliers and special-purpose aircraft.
Helicopters
The US Army has more than 4,000 attack and Utility helicopters. USMC operates nearly 770 helicopters, including 289 MV-22B Osprey tilt-rotors. USN has close to 500 helicopters and tilt-rotors. The USAF operates 420 helicopters, including 225 HH-60 Pave Hawk and 52 V-22 Osprey.
PLAAF has around 70 utility and attack helicopters, including 16 Mi-17s. People’s Liberation Army Ground Force Aviation operates 320 attack helicopters and around 600 medium and light utility and transport helicopters. Once again, China has a long way to go before catching up with the US. US helicopters have had great combat exposure since the Vietnam War and also in Iraq and Afghanistan. China has had none.
Uncrewed Aerial Systems
Increasingly, sophisticated UAS have been flying across theatre and echelon levels in China. Within the last three years, the Chinese have shown off the Xianglong jet-powered UAS, the supersonic WZ-8 drone, and a redesigned version of the GJ-11 stealth unmanned combat air vehicle at airshows. Many of these have next-generation capabilities, including stealth flying-wing types.
China has been demonstrating UAS interest well beyond intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), and electronic warfare, with uncrewed air-to-air and air-to-ground combat platforms.
China is working aggressively on the “Loyal Wingman” concept, which is comparable to the USA’s Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program. However, they are still behind the US, which has demonstrated much higher degrees of autonomy and used uncrewed platforms for aerial refueling. USA has also been flying uncrewed fighters such as QF-16.
China has already demonstrated significant drone swarm capabilities. Chinese companies are capable of producing large quantities of kamikaze drones. Both these are being operationalized. China is also exporting a significant number of military and civilian UAS of all sizes.
USA has a very clear edge in operational usage of UAS since Vietnam, through Kosovo, Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere in West Asia. They have been learning and refining on the move. As many as 360 (285 RQ-1, 75 MQ-1) General Atomics MQ-1 Predator drones have been built. Over 300 General Atomics MQ-9 Reapers have been built. USAF operates 9 jet-powered RQ-4 Global Hawk. They also operate 20 Lockheed Martin stealth flying-wing RQ-170 Sentinel.
The Chinese equivalents, Chengdu GJ-2, also known as Wing Loong 2, were first inducted in 2017. China has nearly 1,500 MALE UAVs, including several hundred Wing Loong 2. It has provisions for up to twelve air-to-surface missiles. These have also been exported to a few countries in Asia and Africa.
Wing Loong 2 has seen combat action by Pakistan and Nigeria in anti-militant operations under no AD threat environment. The Wing Loong II was used by the UAE to perform airstrikes against the Government of National Accord (GNA) in the Libyan civil war. UAS and UCAVs is an area where China is nearly at par with the USA.
Air to Air Missiles
China has a great bouquet of air-to-air missiles (AAM). The PL-10 is a Within Visual range (WVR) combat missile with a 20 km range in service since 2015. It is of the US AIM-9 Sidewinder class. The PL-12 active radar-guided beyond-visual-range (BVR) AAM with a 70–100 kilometers range is considered comparable to the US AIM-120 AMRAAM and the Russian R-77.
The PL-15 active radar-guided long-range AAM reportedly has a 200–300 km range. It is comparable to Meteor and AIM-120 AMRAAM. The PL-17 or PL-20 is an active radar-guided BVR AAM claimed to have a range of more than 400 km and is intended to target high-value airborne assets (HVAA) such as FRA and AEW&C. It is equivalent to AIM-174B (United States) and R-37M (Russia).
The PL-21 is an active radar-guided BVR AAM considered comparable to the American AIM-260 JATM and the Russian R-37 (missile). Clearly, China has world-class AAMs.
Aircraft Carriers
The US began operating aircraft carriers in 1922. Today, USN has 11 operational aircraft carriers. Four more will be inducted between 2025 and 2034. They are all (catapult-assisted take-off but arrested recovery (CATOBAR) carriers with 100,000-tonne displacement, and all are nuclear-powered.
China has only two short take-off, barrier-arrested recovery (STOBAR) carriers. Both are between 60-70,000 tonne displacement. Their first CATOBAR conventionally powered carrier, Fujian (80,000 tons), is under fitment. Type 004, the first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, is reportedly under construction. Clearly, China is way behind the USA in carrier aviation.
New Technologies
China is among the leaders in developing, testing, and deploying hypersonic weapons. The DF-ZF is a hypersonic glide vehicle mounting the Dongfeng-17 cruise missile. Having already spent US$12 billion, the US has yet to field even one. The USA is still in catch-up mode on this.
In the United States, the Pentagon, DARPA, the Air Force Research Laboratory, the United States Army Armament Research Development and Engineering Center, and the Naval Research Laboratory are researching directed-energy weapons (DEW) to counter ballistic missiles, hypersonic cruise missiles, and hypersonic glide vehicles. These missile defense systems are expected to be operational by the mid to late-2020s. The USA is ahead of China on this count.
Top Defence Contractors
As per research by Defense News, the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and SPADE Indexes, among the world’s top defense contractors, USA’s Lockheed Martin (Maker of F-22, F-16, and F-35) continues to lead with a huge margin.
However, the Aviation Industry Corporation of China has moved rapidly to 2nd position in 2024. There are six US and three Chinese firms in the top ten. BAE Systems at 7th is from the UK. Of the top 25, 12 are from the USA, five from China, two from the UK, two from France, and one each from Italy, Israel, South Korea, and Germany.
In the top 100, there are 48 US Companies and only six Chinese companies. All Chinese companies are state-owned. US companies are all private. It can be seen that the USA and its allies dominate the global defense producers.
To Summarize
China has the world’s largest armed forces by numbers and the second-largest defense budget after the USA. China’s military remains riddled with corruption but still has the most dramatic military build-up. China is also fast modernizing and increasing its nuclear warhead numbers, with a target of 1,500 by 2035. China has significant rocket forces.
The PLAN is today the largest by vessel numbers, albeit they are still way behind the USA by tonnage. The Pentagon forecasts 395 PLAN battle force ships by 2025, including 65 submarines, and 435 by 2030, including 80 submarines.
The USA is much ahead of China in deployable air power. The USA’s commitments are global. China’s Theatre command system is still mainland defense-centric. The Eastern and Southern Theatres are getting to manage parts of the Western Pacific.
China has mastered most technologies and intends to catch up with the USA in another decade or so. China’s second fifth-generation fighter, the twin-engined J-35, is expected to equip China’s aircraft carriers.
China’s aircraft industry remains state-controlled. The US industry is private and much more advanced in research, products, and sales. Aero-engines continue to be an area of struggle for China.
The Chinese military has much fewer training exercises and practically no combat exposure. The PLAAF is increasing the number of joint exercises it conducts with other regional air forces, mostly with those of Pakistan, Russia, and Thailand.
The USA has been busy fighting its war against terror and fighting other people’s wars, behaving like a global policeman. China used this period to catch up. China has used all means to acquire technologies, including through cyber theft operations. Now, it is spending significant amounts on its own R&D. The USA has become conscious of China’s rise and put in place technology transfer and leak curbs.
- Air Marshal Anil Chopra (Retired) is an Indian Air Force veteran fighter test pilot and former Director-General of the Center for Air Power Studies in New Delhi. He has been decorated with gallantry and distinguished service medals while serving in the IAF for 40 years.
- He tweets @Chopsyturvey
- Follow EurAsian Times on Google News
