In a startling revelation, a bipartisan commission has warned that the United States could exhaust its ammunition supplies in as little as “three to four weeks” if engaged in a prolonged conflict with China.
This alarming assessment, presented to the Senate Armed Services Committee, exposes a critical gap between “the Pentagon’s ambitions and reality” for major warfare.
The 114-page report, compiled by an eight-member commission appointed by Congress, paints a grim picture of America’s military preparedness. The commission included a retired Army general, a former Democratic congresswoman, and a former US ambassador.
Notably, the report compares the ammunition stocks of the United States with those of China, the world’s second-largest economy.
According to the report’s critical findings, the US could deplete its ammunition reserves within just three to four weeks in a hypothetical conflict with China. It warned that critical munitions, like anti-ship missiles, might last only a few days.
The report also noted that the US is unprepared for a prolonged conflict with China or Russia, let alone both simultaneously, due to particularly insufficient ammunition stockpiles.
This stark revelation highlights the urgent need for an overhaul in military readiness and resource management.
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US Ammo Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
But the problem isn’t just about quantity – it’s also about supply. It’s important to note that this isn’t the first time Congress has received a reality check on the US ammo supply chain.
In a twist of geopolitical irony, the US has been heavily reliant on China and Russia for key components of its ammunition supply chain.
The House Armed Services Committee stated in June 2022, “The United States has relied almost entirely on China—and to a lesser extent Russia—in recent years to procure a critical mineral that is vital to producing ammunition.”
The committee expressed concern over geopolitical dynamics with Russia and China, warning that these could accelerate supply chain disruptions, particularly with antimony.
The report highlighted that China is the leading producer of mined and refined antimony and a major US import source. However, China is losing market share to Russia, the world’s second-largest producer, while Tajikistan is becoming a significant player as the third-largest supplier of antimony.
National Defense Stockpile
The national defense stockpile, once a robust safeguard, is now deemed inadequate to meet the demands of great power competition. This shortfall extends beyond just ammunition – the entire US defense industry is struggling to meet national needs, even in peacetime.
The national defense stockpile is a strategic reserve of rare earth minerals essential to the defense-industrial supply chain. It includes critical materials such as titanium, tungsten, cobalt, and lithium.
Antimony is vital for producing a range of military equipment, from armor-piercing bullets and explosives to nuclear weapons and night vision goggles.
After Japan halted the US supply of antimony from China during World War II, the United States started sourcing the mineral from ore mined in the Idaho gold mine, which ceased production in 1997. The 2020 US Geological Survey report noted that ‘there are no domestic sources of antimony.’
The current stockpile is inadequate to meet the demands of great power competition. In the June 2022 report, it was noted that ‘the national defense stockpile can no longer sufficiently support the Department of Defense’s needs in the event of a supply chain disruption.’
Defense Industry Shortfalls
The bipartisan commission cited a 2022 report from two Center for National American Security analysts, which stated that the “US lacks sufficient arms to blunt and defeat an initial invasion” from powers like China.
This shortage still persists despite recent increases in arms production to support Ukraine.
The commission also warned that the overall defense industry is struggling, with insufficient capacity to meet national needs even in peacetime. “US industrial production is grossly inadequate to provide the equipment, technology, and munitions needed today, let alone for great power conflicts,” their report stated.
The Congressional report raises serious concerns about the US’s readiness for large-scale conflict due to significant military capacity deficiencies. It warns that American defense capabilities are insufficient to deter or win in a major confrontation, echoing issues reminiscent of the Cold War era.
Experts have observed that there is a disconnect between the Pentagon’s plans and actual military potential, with the US trailing China in several critical areas.
Russian & Chinese Threats
The US is also concerned about Russian stockpiles alongside China. A bipartisan commission referenced a 2022 Royal United Services Institute report on the Ukraine war, which revealed that “At the height of the fighting in Donbas, Russia was expending more ammunition in two days than the entire British military has in stock.”
According to the report, “China and Russia are major powers that seek to undermine US influence.”
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This sobering assessment comes at a time of heightened global tensions. The commission noted the deepening “no-limits” partnership between China and Russia, which now includes military and economic ties with Iran and North Korea. This alignment of nations opposed to US interests raises the specter of localized conflicts potentially escalating into multi-theater or even global wars.
As if to underscore these concerns, recent joint Russian-Chinese military exercises near Alaska have raised eyebrows in Washington. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin expressed worry about these maneuvers, which resulted in the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) scrambling fighter jets to intercept four bombers—two from each nation.
We must remember that adversaries are also attentive to US congressional reports. Russian and Chinese media have highlighted the findings of the bipartisan commission.
A Wake-Up Call
As Washington confronts these challenges, “The threats are the most serious and most challenging the nation has encountered since 1945 and include the potential for a near-term major war,” according to the report.
The commission’s report serves as a wake-up call, echoing Cold War-era anxieties about military readiness. It warns that current US defense capabilities may be insufficient to deter or prevail in a major confrontation, particularly given China’s advancements in several critical areas.
The pressing question is whether America can rapidly strengthen its defenses to effectively address these evolving dangers.
- Shubhangi Palve is a defense and aerospace journalist. Before joining the EurAsian Times, she worked for E.T. Prime. In this capacity, she focused on covering defense strategies and the defense sector from a financial perspective. She offers over 15 years of extensive experience in the media industry, spanning print, electronic, and online domains.
- Contact the author at shubhapalve (at) gmail (dot) com.
