China’s extensive fortification of its air bases in recent years has provided it with a significant advantage over US military airfields, particularly in the event of a conflict over Taiwan, according to a new report by the Hudson Institute.
Over the past decade, Beijing has undertaken an extensive effort to “harden” its airfields and, in the process, utilized enough concrete to construct a four-lane highway stretching from Washington to Chicago, as stated in the report titled “Concrete Sky: Air Base Hardening in the Western Pacific.”
China has engaged in what the report describes as a “nationwide, systematic campaign” to expand and harden its airfields. The goal is to withstand large-scale attacks, with a particular focus on safeguarding aircraft during intense air combat.
The analysis, authored by Timothy A. Walton, a senior fellow at the think tank, and Thomas H. Shugart, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, highlights that the number of hardened aircraft shelters—designed to protect planes from enemy strikes—has more than doubled, from 370 to over 800.
Meanwhile, the number of non-hardened shelters has surged from 1,100 to more than 2,300, bringing the total number of shelters across the country to over 3,100. These shelters are crucial for protecting China’s vast fleet of combat aircraft during a conflict.
The fortification efforts are particularly concentrated within 1,000 nautical miles of the Taiwan Strait, an area that could see intense fighting if tensions between China and Taiwan escalate.
In this region, China has over 650 hardened shelters and nearly 2,000 non-hardened shelters spread across 134 air bases. By comparison, the United States has added just two hardened shelters and 41 non-hardened shelters in the same area, with a focus on bases outside of South Korea.
The report paints a stark picture of the disparity in airfield capacity between China and the US and its allies. When factoring in airbases in South Korea and the Philippines, the combined regional airfield capacity of the US and its allies is roughly one-third of China’s.
This imbalance is especially concerning, as it means that in a conflict, China could maintain its air operations far more effectively than the US and its partners.
This operational advantage, the report suggests, could encourage China to act first in a conflict. The country’s extensive airfield fortifications give it the ability to suppress or destroy US airpower in the region with significantly fewer strikes than it would take the US and its allies to disable Chinese air forces.
The report also highlights the vulnerability of US airfields in the region. Many US airbases lack the hardened protections found in Chinese facilities, which left them susceptible to missile strikes.
For example, China could neutralize US military aircraft and fuel stores at Iwakuni, located on Japan’s main island of Honshu, with as few as 10 missiles.
Moreover, the US would face serious logistical challenges. The closest US military base to Taiwan is Kadena Air Base, located on Okinawa Island, Japan, just 370 miles from the island. However, maintaining a sustainable air campaign from these distant bases could be difficult.
Growing Chinese Missile Threat
The report follows the Pentagon’s release of its annual evaluation of China’s military capabilities, which highlighted a major rise in China’s medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs), with the number rising by approximately 300 in just over a year.
These missiles, with ranges between 621 and 1,864 miles, are capable of reaching US military bases across the entire first island chain, a strategic defense line that includes Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines.
The Pentagon also noted that the Chinese Rocket Force, which manages land-based missiles, regularly conducts live-fire exercises targeting mock airfields, bunkers, aircraft, and ships, thereby improving its readiness for various counter-intervention scenarios.
Satellite imagery has previously revealed mock-ups of US military assets, such as aircraft carriers, which are considered potential missile targets.
While US forces have had an advantage in deploying to forward airfields without contest in past conflicts in the Middle East, experts believe that a conflict with China would present a very different and far more challenging environment.
Chinese military strategists have identified forward air bases, particularly their runways, as the Achilles’ heel of American airpower projection, given their vulnerability to missile attacks.
This alarming scenario has not gone unnoticed by US lawmakers. In May 2024, 13 members of Congress addressed a letter to the Air Force and Navy secretaries and highlighted the risks posed by Chinese missile threats.
They warned that such vulnerabilities “significantly weaken our ability to respond in a conflict” and urged the Pentagon to prioritize building hardened aircraft shelters, underground bunkers, and other infrastructure to increase the resilience of US bases in the Indo-Pacific region.
Yet, the report by Shugart and Walton highlights that the US military has focused more on advancing modern aircraft rather than addressing these critical airfield threats. Both older and newer aircraft face similar risks when stationed on the ground.
To counter China’s growing missile threat, the Hudson Institute report urges the US to invest in strengthening airfield defenses, fortifying airbases for resilience, and accelerating the development of aircraft and unmanned systems that can operate from shorter or even damaged runways, aligning with the US Air Force’s Agile Combat Employment (ACE) strategy.
- Contact the author at ashishmichel(at)gmail.com
- Follow EurAsian Times on Google News
