Russia has ramped up its domestic production capabilities of Iranian-designed Shahed drones in preparation for its Winter strike campaign against Ukraine, according to a new assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia began importing Shahed drones from Iran. However, by early 2023, Moscow and Tehran signed a US$1.75 billion deal to establish domestic production of these drones within Russia.
The ISW assessment is based on a CNN report published on December 27, which estimates that the Shahed production facility in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in the Republic of Tatarstan produced 5,760 drones between January and September 2024.
This is more than double the number of drones produced at the facility in 2023, showcasing the rapid expansion of production capacity.
Satellite imagery also reveals that Russian authorities have recently expanded the Alabuga facility, adding two new buildings and installing anti-drone mesh cages over several structures to secure the site.
The report, citing leaked documents from the facility, confirms that Alabuga is Russia’s main production site for Shahed drones and has already met its commitment to deliver 6,000 drones to the Russian military by September 2025.
Ukrainian defense intelligence sources who spoke with CNN also revealed that the facility began manufacturing low-tech “decoy” drones in the summer of 2024.
These decoys, designed to mimic the Shahed drones, are used by Russian forces to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense systems. The decoy drones are far cheaper to produce—approximately 10 times less expensive than the armed Shahed drones.
Russia plans to produce 10,000 of these decoy drones by the end of 2024—almost double the number of Shahed strike drones produced in the first nine months of 2024. Ukrainian officials have added that these decoys are a major part of Russia’s strategy, as they help to saturate and confuse Ukraine’s air defense systems.
Ukrainian air defense volunteers have revealed that it is virtually impossible to differentiate between real Shahed drones and the decoys on radar, as many of the incoming UAVs appear unarmed.
One volunteer estimated that out of 150 drones launched by Russia in a single night, only 20 to 30 are actual Shaheds, with the rest being decoys.
Russia Expands Drone Production With Chinese Support?
In addition to ramping up its domestic drone production, Russia has constructed a new rail station near the Alabuga Special Economic Zone (SEZ), establishing a direct rail link between Russia and China.
This new rail connection, according to Ukrainian intelligence officers, could be used to transport essential components for drone production from China to Russia.
Between September 2023 and June 2024, a total of 34 Chinese companies reportedly “cooperated” with the Alabuga facility, signing contracts valued at approximately 700 million yuan, or over 8 billion rubles (US$96 million).
These agreements involved supplying crucial parts, materials, and production equipment for UAV manufacturing. Notably, one of these companies also provided jamming equipment designed to protect the Alabuga facility from potential drone attacks.
However, Beijing maintains that it has never directly supplied lethal weapons to either side in the Ukraine War.
Despite China’s denials, the presence of Chinese-made electronics in Russian drones has been widely documented. The United States has even imposed sanctions on two Chinese companies believed to be directly involved in the development and production of long-range attack drones for Russia.
Additionally, dozens of other Chinese firms have faced sanctions for supplying dual-use goods and components that can be repurposed for military applications, including drones.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has escalated its efforts to target Russian facilities involved in the manufacturing and maintenance of Iranian-designed drones.
On December 28, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported a successful strike on a Shahed kamikaze drone maintenance facility in Russia’s Oryol region using Storm Shadow airborne cruise missiles.
This strike damaged a facility used for storing, maintaining, and repairing Shahed drones. The facility was reportedly housed in concrete-protected structures, which did not fully shield it from the missile strike.
The Ukrainian General Staff claimed that this operation had greatly reduced Russia’s capacity to launch air raids against Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure using strike UAVs. According to information from the Russian Telegram channel ASTRA, at least three Storm Shadow cruise missiles successfully hit their target in Oryol.
Earlier, on December 23, Ukrainian military intelligence claimed that a warehouse containing components for Iranian-designed Shahed drones at Russia’s Alabuga facility in Tatarstan was destroyed by fire. The estimated damage from this fire amounted to approximately US$16 million.
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