Russia has announced plans to deploy its advanced Oreshnik nuclear-capable hypersonic ballistic missile to Belarus in the second half of next year. This development follows last year’s controversial deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus.
The Oreshnik missile, which features a Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV), can carry multiple nuclear warheads and strike different targets with precision.
Russian President Vladimir Putin made the announcement on December 6 during a televised meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. On his visit to Belarus, the Russian President inked a treaty offering security assurances to Moscow’s key ally.
The Russian President revealed that the deployment of the Oreshnik missile is contingent on the completion of serial production in Russia. Putin’s promise comes in response to Lukashenko’s request for additional security measures, citing threats from neighboring NATO countries, including Poland, Lithuania, and Germany.
The Oreshnik missiles, integrated into Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces, will be stationed in Belarus, where local authorities will have input on their target selection.
Lukashenko, who is seen by many as a puppet of the Kremlin, noted the strategic value of the Oreshnik deployment, suggesting it would serve as a deterrent against potential aggression.
“[Deploying Oreshnik in Belarus] would seriously calm down some ‘minds’ that are already prepared to wage war against Belarus,” he said.
This decision follows a missile test by Russia in November when the Oreshnik missile successfully struck the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. Putin hailed the missile as invulnerable to existing air defense systems.
The strike was carried out in response to the US approval of ATACMS missile strikes into Russian territory.
Despite the latest announcement, an anonymous former Russian defense engineer told the Moscow Times that mass production could take years due to systemic inefficiencies within Russia’s defense industry.
This missile deployment is part of a broader strategy by Russia to solidify its military presence in Belarus. In December 2023, Lukashenko confirmed that Russia had completed shipments of nuclear weapons to Belarus.
Belarus, however, does not control the Russian warheads on its soil, though it has adapted its military doctrine to focus on the use of tactical nuclear weapons in defense of its sovereignty.
In 2022, Belarus became the site of Russia’s deployment of nuclear-capable Iskander missiles. Minsk has also accommodated an estimated 2,500 to 4,000 fighters from the Russian paramilitary Wagner Group, according to Estonian intelligence. Many of these forces are reportedly stationed at a former Soviet missile base located roughly 50 miles from Minsk.
Oreshnik On Belarusian Soil To Strengthen Negotiating Position With The West
The upcoming deployment of Russia’s Oreshnik missile system to Belarus has sparked questions about its true intent and the broader geopolitical implications.
Belarusian Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov has disclosed that stationing the Oreshnik missiles on Belarusian soil would strengthen the country’s position in any future negotiations with the West.
“Naturally, it will be much easier,” he told the Yunashev Live Telegram channel. He said that the move would bolster Belarus’s leverage.
When asked about the possibility of new sanctions against Belarus in response to the deployment, Ryzhenkov dismissed the concern, stating that the country has already faced many sanctions that did not impact much.
Meanwhile, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest that the Oreshnik missile system’s deployment in Belarus does not increase the risk of missile strikes on Ukraine or NATO nations.
They pointed out that the Kremlin’s actions have a broader strategic objective: to expand Russia’s military presence in Belarus and further erode the country’s sovereignty through the Union State framework, which seeks to create deeper integration between the two nations.
“The Kremlin continues to advance its strategic effort to de facto annex Belarus and further expand the Russian military’s presence in Belarus through the Union State framework,” the
The Washington-based think tank said.
According to the ISW, the missile deployment is more about cementing Russian control over Belarus than posing an immediate threat to neighboring countries.
In the context of the Union State, Russia and Belarus have already signed a series of agreements, including those on security, consumer rights protection, combating smuggling, and creating a unified electricity market.
The West views the growing integration as a sign of Belarus’ diminishing independence. Many experts suggest that President Lukashenko’s attempts to retain control over Russian military assets on Belarusian soil will likely be in vain.
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