The Russian Ministry of Defence (RuMoD) released footage of the destruction of a Ukrainian Patriot battery on October 9.
According to the RuMoD, a crew of an Iskander ballistic missile system fired missiles at the Patriot SAM battalion’s positions near Pashena Balka in the Dnepropetrovsk region.
“The strike engaged a multifunctional AN/MPQ-65 radar, an AN/MSQ-104 engagement control station, launcher of the Patriot SAM system, and manpower of the AFU AD battalion. Another launcher of the Patriot SAM system was damaged.”
Pashena Balka is around 250 km from possible Iskander-M launch points within Russian territory.
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Objective Control Footage
The incident and the object control footage released by the RuMoD are suggestive of a systemic malaise in the Ukrainian armed forces.
Ukraine appears to be throwing caution to the wind with its limited inventory of Patriot MIM-104 missile systems. It deploys them within easy reach of Russian Iskander missiles with little or no effort to camouflage their locations. The Ukrainian forces appear focused on sporadic headline victories instead of an inexorable pushback of Russian forces.
The objective control footage released by the Russian MoD appears to have been taken during daylight hours. Missile launchers, the AN/MPQ-65 radar, and the AN/MSQ-104 Combat Control Systems are clearly visible in the video footage.
The control footage does not show all the destruction claimed by the RuMod because the additional destruction is attributed to the secondary detonation of one of the launchers.
The fact that Russia could capture excellent objective control footage tells its own tale. Clearly, Ukrainian forces were not aware of the presence of the Russian drone, which suggests that the footage was captured by a low-observable, EW-resistant reconnaissance drone such as the Superkam.
The exact operating radius of the flying wing-shaped Superkam is not known, but a ballpark of 200-250 km would not stretch credulity.
Careless Deployment?
It’s interesting to note the Patriots’ rather shallow launch trajectory, which is likely an indication that the Iskander-M was flying a challenging quasi-ballistic trajectory and likely maneuvering while approaching the target.
The Iskander-M missile reportedly rises to a high altitude of about 100 km and then starts intensive maneuvering as it descends, making intercepting it almost impossible. Approaching its target, the Iskander-M releases decoys which degrades the capability of enemy radar systems.
The interval between the two Patriot missiles’ launches and the Iskander’s strike suggests that the Iskander-M was detected in time, but its low altitude and/or maneuvering thwarted engagement.
In this instance, it appears that the Ukrainian forces placed the Patriot battery within easy Iskander-M range, giving the Iskander-M more room for evasive maneuvers!
Possible Ukrainian Imperative For Exposing A Patriot Battery
So why would Ukrainian forces expose a valuable asset such as a Patriot battery to an easy Russian strike?
Russia routinely launches cruise missiles into Ukrainian airspace, not to attack targets but to provoke a Ukrainian air defense missile response. The intent is to identify the locations of the AD systems and their launchers for follow-up suppression of enemy air defense attacks.
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However, typically, Ukraine would use the NASAMS or IRIS-T short to medium-range AD systems to engage a Russian cruise missile.
According to Russian bloggers, the Patriot battery had been deployed at Pashena Balka to prevent accurate UMPK-kitted glide bombs released by Russian Su-34 fighter bomber aircraft. Russian forces were able to extrapolate the Patriot battery’s location by tracing back missile launch trajectories.
The battery’s destruction now eliminates the threat of Russian fighter-bombers attacking enemy military facilities in the Dnepropetrovsk and Pavlograd regions.
Another reason for the deployment at Pashena Balka could have been the intensification of attacks by Russian forces in the Zaporizhzhya sector, particularly the use of glide bombs by Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber aircraft.
In the past, Ukrainian forces in the Zaporizhzhya sector had not been struck by glide bombs. It was widely assumed that the region was out of the Su-34 fighter bomber range.
The social media has lately been abuzz with chatter of a planned Russian winter offensive in Zaporizhzhya. The Ukrainians may have intended to use the Patriots to engage the Su-34s well before they arrived at the release points for their UMPK-kitted bombs.
Conclusion
Considering the limited number of Patriot systems in Ukrainian inventory, the loss of a Patriot battery is bound to further weaken Ukraine’s ability to hold off the ongoing Russian offensive.
In the released footage, the pinpoint accuracy with which the Iskander-M missile struck its target is truly remarkable. However, one still wonders why a cluster warhead was not used. The spread would have definitely led to more destruction.
A logical explanation, of course, would be that an Iskander system with a cluster warhead was not within range of the target at that point in time.
The threat to Ukrainian forces from the Iskander-M missile has been steadily increasing mostly because Russia has dramatically stepped up production of the missile.
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Evidence is also mounting that Russia is upgrading its Iskander-M missile for a longer range. Photos of a new 1000 km range Iskander-M, tentatively named Iskander-1000, have appeared on social media.
Recently, there were reports of an Iskander-M launched from the Kursk region striking a target in the Zhmerynka district at a range of 750 km.
A 1000-km range Iskander-M could have a lower accuracy than the standard variant’s 10 m CEP. However, this remains to be seen.
- Vijainder K Thakur is a retired IAF Jaguar pilot, author, software architect, entrepreneur, and military analyst.
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