For the past three weeks, Russian MiG-31K fighter jets, capable of carrying the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, have not triggered air alerts in Ukraine. The last recorded instance of an air raid alarm due to these aircraft was on January 28, marking an unusually long absence.
The Kinzhal missile remains one of the most feared weapons in Russia’s arsenal. Its hypersonic speed and unpredictable flight path make it extremely difficult to intercept with conventional air defense systems.
Ukraine has claimed that the US-supplied Patriot missile system is the only known defense capable of shooting down Kinzhals.
However, most experts, including Air Marshal Anil Chopra (Retired), an Indian Air Force veteran fighter test pilot, argue that Ukraine lacks the capability to counter the MiG-31 or Kinzhal missiles.
Ukrainians refer to the MiG-31 as a ‘terror weapon’ capable of causing widespread disruption to daily life. Consequently, whenever a MiG-31 armed with a Kinzhal hypersonic missile takes off from a Russian airfield, it prompts an air raid alert in Ukraine. However, no such alarms have been triggered since January 28.
Yet, this is not the first extended break. In January alone, Ukraine went 20 days, between January 8 and 28, without MiG-31-related alarms.
This is considered an anomaly, as these Russian Air Force aircraft have been active relatively consistently since at least the start of 2024. Before this, the longest recorded pause was from September 5 to 20, 2024.
The Russian Ministry of Defense has not commented on the apparent operational break, leaving analysts and military experts speculating about possible reasons. Some theories include maintenance cycles, changes in strategy, or even logistical challenges.
According to an unofficial Ukrainian military monitoring channel, MiG-31 fighters may have still been flying from Russian airfields after January 28 but not engaging in combat missions. This information has not been independently verified, and official Ukrainian military communications have not provided further details.
However, Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Air Force, confirmed the pause in MiG-31-related air alerts in a statement to the BBC.
He further noted that while no alarms have been triggered due to MiG-31 activity for three weeks, this does not mean the aircraft has not been flying.
If intelligence confirms that a MiG-31K is flying deep within Russian territory with no immediate threat to Ukraine, then an alarm may not be announced.
Strategic Pause Or Cost-Cutting Measure?
The MiG-31, designated “Foxhound” by NATO, was developed in the 1970s and entered service in the 1980s at the peak of the Cold War. At the time of its introduction, it featured one of the most advanced radars in the world and improved speed and engine performance compared to previous Soviet fighters.
With a high service ceiling, large fuel capacity, and considerable weapons storage, it was a formidable interceptor. However, the airframe is now more than 40 years old.
While aviation technology has advanced significantly, all MiG-31s were manufactured before 1994. Out of approximately 500 originally produced, only 129 remained in Russia’s arsenal by 2023, according to Military Balance 2023 and World Air Forces 2023.
A specialized variant, the MiG-31K, serves as a carrier for the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missile. Military Balance identifies 12 of these aircraft, which outwardly resemble other MiG-31 models but are modified with equipment designed for Kinzhal launches. Unlike other MiG-31s, the MiG-31K is not built for traditional aerial combat.
To launch a Kinzhal missile, the MiG-31K must ascend beyond 15 kilometers and accelerate to 3,000 km/h. Essentially, the aircraft acts as the missile’s first stage, with its speed playing a crucial role in the launch process.
One possible reason for the recent pause in MiG-31 operations, as noted by the BBC, could be the depletion of key aircraft components.
Like all military aircraft, the MiG-31 has a limited operational lifespan measured in flight hours and takeoff/landing cycles, with some components wearing out much faster than others.
For example, an analysis of the D-30F6 engine, the powerplant used in the MiG-31, suggests that signs of structural aging begin after just 350 hours of operation. By comparison, the AL-41F1S engine used in the Su-35 has a total lifespan of 3,000 hours, which can be extended to 4,000 with component replacements.
While the D-30F6 is no longer in production, Aviadvigatel’s General Designer, Alexander Inozemtsev, stated in 2014 that around 1,500 engines had been manufactured, leaving a substantial reserve. However, given the intensive use of the MiG-31 fleet, the number of engines still available remains uncertain.
Defense analyst Patricia Marins, in conversation with EurAsian Times, suggested that the absence of MiG-31 operations could be driven by cost-cutting measures. She pointed out that the MiG-31 has much higher operational expenses compared to other Russian aircraft.
“To lower costs, the Russians might be avoiding expensive missiles like the Kinzhal and are more focused on tactical advancements using drones, which are much cheaper. I believe that with the peace negotiations advancing, the tendency will be to cut costs,” she added.
Additionally, the MiG-31K endures greater structural stress than standard MiG-31 models due to the sheer size and weight of the Kinzhal missile. Weighing 4.3 tons and mounted at a single hardpoint under the fuselage, the missile alters the aircraft’s load distribution, thereby placing additional strain on the airframe.
While aircraft service life can be extended through inspections and component replacements, high-intensity missions accelerate wear and tear—not only on individual components but also on the airframe itself, which cannot be easily replaced. Thus, frequent combat sorties may be taking a toll on Russia’s MiG-31 fleet.
Regardless, the Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson has dismissed speculation that the absence of Russian MiG-31 sorties indicates technical issues or shortages.
He stressed that Russia maintains a full cycle of production, repair, and modernization for both Su and MiG aircraft, making it unlikely that mechanical failures would significantly impact operations.
“If something breaks, it will be replaced. This is not a problem for Russia,” Ihnat stated. He suggested multiple possible explanations for the recent pause, including strategic planning, stockpiling missiles, or even unfavorable weather conditions.
Meanwhile, recent reports suggest that Russia has modified the Su-34 fighter bomber to carry and launch Kinzhal missiles, with a recent launch announced in early January 2025.
Ukrainian media, though skeptical of these claims from Russian sources, widely reported on the development at the time. If verified, this modification could reduce Russia’s reliance on the MiG-31K for deploying Kinzhal missiles.
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