Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has officially cleared her position regarding Saudi Arabia’s potential entry into the Global Air Combat Program (GCAP)—the sixth-generation combat aircraft being jointly developed by Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom.
The GCAP, launched in 2022, is a collaborative initiative that seeks to design, manufacture, and deliver a next-generation crewed combat aircraft.
The member states of the GCAP grouping seek to induct the first aircraft developed under this program by 2035. Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Italy’s Leonardo, and Britain’s BAE Systems are leading the project as system integrators.
On the question of whether the grouping will welcome the entry of Saudi Arabia, Meloni said, “We are in favor of the Saudis entering, but clearly this… will not be immediate,” emphasizing that the details of the GCAP still need to be worked out between the three founding nations. The Italian Prime Minister further added that opening up the multibillion-euro scheme to a fourth country will take time, without giving a tentative deadline.
Earlier, the Italian Foreign Minister, Antonio Tajani, said in November 2024 that the GCAP partnership will likely be extended to Saudi Arabia in the future. However, this may be the first time that the head of the European country has enunciated her position on the matter.
Notably, the possibility of opening the sixth-gen aircraft program to additional members was officially discussed in November 2024, just a week after Rome ratified the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP) treaty.
At the time, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer highlighted the trio’s “ambition to widen participation to a broader range of international partners in the future.” While the details about potential participants were not disclosed, Saudi Arabia was believed to be a potential candidate due to its sustained interest in GCAP.
Saudi Arabia prematurely announced its participation in the program in March 2023— a claim that was later retracted. However, reports suggest that discussions for Riyadh’s participation in the GCAP have since continued between Riyadh and the GCAP members.
Saudi Arabia’s interest in the GCAP stems from a glaring gap in its fighter fleet. The Kingdom wanted to acquire the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II stealth aircraft from the United States.
However, the Pentagon continued to drag its feet on the sale of the aircraft, mainly owing to the long-standing agreement with Israel that requires the US to supply equipment that is “superior in capability” compared to those sold to Israel’s neighbors.
Though the Kingdom is now considering alternatives, such as the Turkish fifth-generation aircraft KAAN, Riyadh is also keen on joining a sixth-generation aircraft program to stay ahead of its rivals in the future.
Having said that, Saudi Arabia’s entry into the GCAP hinges on the unanimous approval of all three founding members. Though the UK and Italy have shown alacrity to collaborate with Saudi Arabia, Japan has remained hesitant. As per reports, two major reasons have been internally flagged by Japan: export restrictions that might be necessitated by Saudi’s entry and a potential delay in the program.
There may be more hurdles for Saudi Arabia. For a long time, concerns have persisted about Saudi Arabia’s patchy record on human rights, which includes the deaths of civilians as a result of its engagement in the civil war in Yemen. While Italy and the UK appear to have looked past these issues, Japan seems to have reservations. Moreover, the close ties between Saudi Arabia and China could also emerge as a potential deal-breaker.
There have been reports that Saudi Arabia could join the program as a junior partner, a condition that may not be acceptable to the Kingdom. Saudi Arabia has insisted that defense deals cannot be carried out unless they incorporate domestic development and production. The Kingdom envisions contributing to GCAP through manufacturing, technological advancements, and skilled human capital.
Saudi officials have noted their participation must be comprehensive and meaningful, stating, “Otherwise, it doesn’t make sense for us.”
The cash-rich Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will bring massive financial backing to the program. Given its anticipated next-generation capabilities, the GCAP’s development is certain to come with a hefty price tag, as seen in the US with the NGAD 6th-gen program.
Therefore, cutting costs by gaining access to Saudi cash would be very beneficial. It might accelerate the construction of the aircraft and reduce the impact on the already tight defense budgets of the GCAP members.
The Italian Prime Minister’s statement that it will take some time suggests that the three founding members are far from reaching a consensus.
GCAP To Be Operational By 2035
Meloni’s statement also comes days after the UK Parliament urged the country to expedite the program and not repeat the mistakes it made during the development of the Eurofighter Typhoon.
The fighter jet developed under the GCAP is expected to be the first sixth-generation aircraft of the West, given that the American sixth-generation program, the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD), is now uncertain, and the France-Germany-Spain Future Combat Air System (FCAS) is facing delays.
Last July, at the Farnborough International Airshow, the three GCAP partner countries unveiled the new concept model of their future combat aircraft. The concept model had a wider wingspan than previous designs, aimed at enhancing the aerodynamics of future combat aircraft. The design is, however, still evolving.
So far, the project has been progressing, given that all three members have ratified the GCAP treaty. This treaty formally establishes the GCAP International Government Organization (GIGO), which is tasked with managing the industrial framework, setting capability requirements, and supervising the development of the next-generation fighter jet.
The planned combat air system will primarily consist of a fighter aircraft, together with unmanned “adjuncts” such as drones, advanced sensors, and networked data systems powered by cloud computing and artificial intelligence.
The next-generation combat aircraft will improve situational awareness by providing more data with its integrated sensor array, intelligent weapons system, software-driven interactive cockpit, and next-generation radar. With state-of-the-art equipment, including sophisticated radar and perhaps high-power microwave capability, the fighter is designed for long-range combat and Pacific operations.
This program seeks to replace the Mitsubishi F-2, used by the Japan Air Self-Defense Force, and the Eurofighter Typhoon, operated by the Royal Air Force and the Italian Air Force.
The GCAP also aims to have a first-mover advantage in the sixth-generation combat aircraft industry that is focused on exports.
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