The A-50U Air Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) has reportedly made an appearance after a long lull in activity, triggering concerns of an imminent massive Russian attack.
Russia has allegedly flown the A-50 reconnaissance aircraft for the first time in six months, as claimed by Ukrainian Telegram channels and local Ukrainian media. The aircraft, reportedly escorted by two Su-30SM fighter jets, was spotted over the Oryol region.
After images of the aircraft flooded the internet, Oleksandr Musienk, a serviceman of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ Territorial Defense Force and a popular Ukrainian military expert, told RBC News that the aircraft’s appearance could mean that a massive Russian attack is imminent. He added that a large-scale Russian attack is predictable under prevailing circumstances, with the US halting all aid to Kyiv’s forces.
“Unfortunately, it’s predictable. We wouldn’t want it to be this way, but he (Russian President Vladimir Putin) heard about the suspension of aid and thinks that now is the time to try and exhaust Ukraine’s air defense system. It’s obvious. And that’s why such actions will happen,” Musiienko added.
While the predictions may or may not be true, Russia has intensified its attacks on Ukraine in recent days. On March 7, for instance, a massive overnight Russian aerial strike killed 14 people in Kharkiv and wounded another 37. Most of the drones and missiles launched by Moscow’s forces were directed against Ukraine’s power and energy infrastructure. They were ostensibly aimed to stifle normal life and curb the country’s war fighting capability.
The Ukrainian military expert predicted that the A-50U aircraft had likely been deployed to gather intelligence on Ukraine’s capability ahead of the attack.
“They (the Russian army) generally want to study our capabilities and abilities. They need additional elements to act and possibly make their air strikes more effective. And here it seems to me that this, unfortunately, is not just a show or propaganda for demonstration purposes. Most likely, it could be preparation for strikes,” he emphasised.
The EurAsian Times could not independently confirm any of these claims. However, it is pertinent to note that the resumption of Russian AWACS operations coincides with concerns that Ukraine may not have enough interceptor missiles to shoot down the enemy’s aircraft after the US abruptly ended its military assistance.
As the US-based think tank, Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in a recent assessment: “Ukrainian forces will likely have to be more selective in intercepting strikes as their stock of interceptors decreases with no resupply on the horizon, and successful Russian strikes against Ukrainian energy facilities will likely have lasting effects on Ukraine’s ability to generate power for DIB (Defense Industrial Base) and civilian use.”
The surprising return of the A-50 to Russian skies is also noteworthy because the aircraft has rarely been seen in the Russian skies over the last year. It was previously believed that Russia withdrew the aircraft from the frontline after suffering at least two losses within a month.
Ukraine claimed shooting down an A-50U in January and another one in February 2024, as previously reported by the EurAsian Times. Less than a month later, in March 2024, Ukrainian forces claimed to have struck a facility that was housing and repairing a previously damaged A-50 Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft.
Russian Eye In The Sky Is Back
The A-50 AWACS is built upon the Ilyushin Il-76MD four-engine strategic transport plane by mounting a rotating radar disc on its upper fuselage.
Like every Airborne Early Warning (AEW) aircraft, it provides long-range aerial surveillance against enemy fighters, cruise missiles, and command and control services to other fighter aircraft. A-50Us are capable of detecting other airborne fighters, tip-off ground-based radars, and low-observable (LO) land-strike missiles.
Comparable to the US and NATO E-3 Sentry, commonly known as AWACS (Airborne Warning and Command System), the A-50 plays a critical role in combat scenarios.
The A-50 is crucial to combat operations conducted by the Russian Aerospace Forces, offering long-range surveillance, command and control capabilities, and early warning of airborne threats. It uses 15 mission controllers to interpret radar returns and can direct up to ten fighter aircraft for air-to-air intercept or air-to-surface attack missions. These AWACS aircraft are indispensable for maintaining air superiority, acting as the eyes for all aircraft.
The A-50’s long-range radar search capability enables it to share a comprehensive situational “picture” with all airborne combat aircraft, facilitating direct communication and assisting fighter aircraft in intercepts and engagements.
The aircraft has also been upgraded to the A-50U variant in recent years. In September 2023, Russian state arms manufacturer, Rostec stated, “The aircraft can detect new types of aircraft. Also, it can simultaneously track a larger number of targets and guided fighters than its predecessor. Modern equipment has reduced the aircraft’s weight and increased the plane’s range and time in the air while performing combat missions.”
The A-50U is an airborne long-range radar surveillance and guidance device essential to modern military operations. According to TASS, it can detect a missile launch at 800 km and “an enemy fighter at a distance of over 300 km. “
The aircraft boasts modern electronics with improved performance metrics and speed, allowing for an expansion of functional software capabilities. The radar display system on the plane is now more effective, thanks to new LCD monitors with a higher size and resolution. Ergonomic upgrades reduce tiredness among the workforce. Furthermore, the A-50U features a revised piloting and navigation system.
The aircraft is designed to locate, trace, and identify air, ground, and sea targets, inform command centers of their locations, and direct fighter aircraft to air targets and front-line aircraft to land and sea targets. The new equipment increases the speed and range of target detection for air, land, and sea targets while also increasing the efficiency of repelling the attacker.
However, Russia’s small inventory of these aircraft has been its Achilles Heel since the beginning of its invasion in February 2022. As of 2021, just nine A-50s, including six modified A-50Us, were believed to be in service in Russia. Of these, at least two were allegedly shot down and two were damaged in Ukrainian attacks.
Russian military analysts and officials have often cited insufficient AEW aircraft in the country’s fleet as a defense vulnerability. They say the absence of a large and efficient AWACS fleet might have contributed to Ukraine’s successful long-range missile attacks.
However, the deployment will be interesting to watch. It appears that Russia is willing to take a risk by flying the aircraft, of which only a few remain in its fleet.
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