The 13-year-old Syrian Civil War has entered a dramatic new phase with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, marking a profound transformation in the Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape.
On the morning of December 8, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fled Damascus, signaling a dramatic shift in the Syrian Civil War after a series of unexpected events in recent weeks.
Russian media reports indicate that Assad, along with his family, has sought asylum in Russia, with Moscow granting refuge on humanitarian grounds. A deal has reportedly been struck to ensure the safety of Russian military bases in Syria, with Syrian opposition leaders agreeing to protect Russian installations and diplomatic missions.
Moscow, a long-time ally of Assad and a key player in the 2015 intervention that bolstered his regime, is scrambling to maintain its influence in the region. Its geopolitical standing in the Middle East and the security of its two crucial military bases in Syria are at stake.
Russian Military Bases In Syria
With Assad’s fall, Russia faces a critical challenge in maintaining its regional influence. The country’s two crucial military installations—the Hmeimim airbase in Latakia and the naval facility in Tartous—are now at risk.
Tartous is Russia’s only repair and replenishment hub in the Mediterranean, and the base has been a key logistics point for Russian military operations in Africa.
According to Western military analysts, losing control of Tartous would significantly damage Russia’s ability to project power across the Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa.
With the future of its military presence in Syria uncertain, Russia faces a pivotal decision: either defend its bases at all costs or explore alternative strategies. Should it be forced to withdraw, Moscow seems to be preparing for other options to secure its interests.
Meanwhile, as per BBC citing Russian media, Kremlin officials have been in touch with representatives of “the Syrian armed opposition.” The state TV claimed that opposition leaders had assured the security of Russian military bases and diplomatic missions in Syria.
Russia’s foreign ministry says the bases in Syria have been put “on a state of high alert” but claims there is “no serious threat to them at the current time.”
Is Libya’s Tobruk A Viable Alternative For Russia?
It remains unclear whether Russia will abandon its military bases in Syria or take drastic measures to protect them. What is evident, however, is that Moscow will need a viable alternative—or may already have one—if a full withdrawal from Syria becomes necessary.
The port of Tobruk in Libya’s Cyrenaica region has surfaced as a promising option for hosting Russian naval operations.
In early 2024, Russian landing ships frequently docked at Tobruk, unloading troops and military equipment. During this period, a Libyan delegation visited Moscow to discuss military and economic cooperation.
In August 2024, a Russian military delegation, including Moscow’s deputy defense minister, made its first official visit to Libya following an invitation from pro-Moscow military leader Khalifa Haftar.
These negotiations, coupled with the presence of a Russian cruiser and two frigates at Tobruk, hint at the possible signing of an agreement granting Russia naval access to the port.
While Tobruk lacks the infrastructure of Syria’s Tartus base, it would enable Russia’s Mediterranean flotilla to maintain operations, supplemented by short-term access to ports in Algeria, Tunisia, and Egypt.
Syria: A Renewed Flashpoint In The Middle East
Amid ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, Syria has re-emerged as a critical flashpoint in the Middle East. The country has become a volatile battleground where the strategic interests of Russia, Turkey, Iran, and Western powers are increasingly clashing.
Syrian rebels have reignited conflict in Syria, marking the worst escalation since 2020. The jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied Turkish-supported factions launched a major offensive on government-controlled areas in the northwest in late November.
In a stunning turn of events, rebel forces captured Damascus in a swift offensive, toppling the Assad government after 13 years of civil war. This marks the rebels’ first return since being ousted from Aleppo by pro-Assad forces in 2016.
Russian Help To Assad Government In 2015
Since 2015, Russia has been a staunch ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, providing critical military support in the most significant Middle Eastern intervention since the Soviet era. Moscow maintains strategic military assets in Syria, including an airbase and a naval facility.
However, unlike in previous crises, Russia has refrained from announcing immediate actions to de-escalate the Syrian conflict.
The shift in approach is largely due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, which has diverted both attention and resources. Many of Russia’s aerial assets, including fighter jets and air defense systems, have been redeployed from Syria to strengthen its military campaign in Ukraine.
According to Turkish officials, this redeployment has substantially diminished Russia’s ability to respond rapidly to developments in Syria.
As a result, the remaining Russian forces in Syria are too limited to effectively counter the recent offensive launched by the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
Turkey’s Emerging Role In Syrian Civil War
Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah have been instrumental in shaping the course of the Syrian Civil War, which began in 2011 following the government’s violent crackdown on pro-democracy protests.
Over half a million people have died in the conflict, and the resulting chaos has allowed various armed groups, including jihadists and Turkish-backed rebels, to seize significant territories.
By 2016, President Bashar al-Assad, with critical support from Russia and Iran, succeeded in pushing back the rebels to Idlib and reclaiming much of the lost ground. Idlib, the last major opposition stronghold, remained largely under the control of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), with additional forces from Turkish-backed rebel factions.
In 2020, a fragile ceasefire was brokered under a Russia-Turkey agreement, but in recent months, Syria’s situation has become increasingly unstable.
Hezbollah has remained focused on its conflict with Israel, while Russia’s resources are tied up in the war in Ukraine. Iran continues to be involved in Syria but is facing its own internal challenges.
Meanwhile, Israel has escalated airstrikes on Syrian territory. Analysts also point to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as a key factor behind the resurgence of opposition forces in Syria.
While Russia has been preoccupied with the war in Ukraine and Iran with its conflicts involving Gaza, Lebanon, and Israel, Turkey has found a significant opportunity to assert its influence.
Syria In Transition
The Syrian conflict is increasingly shaped by the competing interests of global and regional powers.
Russia has long supported Bashar al-Assad, as his regime was a key ally in Moscow’s Middle Eastern strategy. Following the fall of the Assad regime, Russia is focused on safeguarding its military bases in Syria, a critical concern for its broader regional influence.
Turkey is positioning itself as a regional power, backing Sunni factions. The fall of the Assad regime underscores Turkey’s growing influence in Syria.
Meanwhile, the United States is under pressure to clarify its stance on Turkey’s involvement in the conflict. Turkey has aligned itself against Kurdish groups supported by the US, adding another layer of complexity to the situation.
Recent developments in Damascus highlight the volatile and unpredictable nature of the Syrian civil war, where multiple global and regional powers continue to vie for strategic influence. The fall of the Assad regime represents more than just a change in Syria’s leadership and will have consequences for the whole Middle Eastern region.
- Shubhangi Palve is a defense and aerospace journalist. Before joining the EurAsian Times, she worked for ET Prime. In this capacity, she focused on covering defense strategies and the defense sector from a financial perspective. She offers over 15 years of extensive experience in the media industry, spanning print, electronic, and online domains.
- Contact the author at shubhapalve (at) gmail.com
