The strategic value of space assets is surging, with Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (IRS) satellites becoming increasingly vital in influencing ground-based military developments.
These satellites orbit at altitudes of approximately 500 kilometers, offering crucial insights into military activities such as troop movements and missile launches. This intelligence proves invaluable during conflicts, enabling precise targeting of enemy resources.
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war highlights the essential role of reconnaissance satellites. These space-based tools have been pivotal in monitoring enemy positions and assessing the extent of damage inflicted during confrontations. Their effectiveness underscores the growing dependence on satellite technology for modern warfare.
Similar advancements are evident in the context of India-China relations. Recent satellite imagery has revealed significant developments along the India-China border. In late May 2024, images disclosed China’s deployment of J-20 stealth fighters near the Indian border in Tibet.
Additionally, early July saw the emergence of satellite images showing China constructing underground bunkers to secure weapons and other military assets along the Pangong Tso Lake, situated near the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh.
By the end of July, further satellite imagery unveiled the completion of a strategic bridge across Pangong Lake. This infrastructure significantly reduces the time China requires to mobilize troops and equipment, raising concerns in India.
The coverage of these developments by the Indian media has amplified the perception of a direct threat from China. While these satellite images were released by US-based private firms, they underscore the capability of spy satellites to gather critical information and their growing role in defense planning.
However, there remains a notable disparity between India and China regarding the number of surveillance satellites in space.
Retired Commodore Milind Kalshrestha, who has extensive experience with the Indian Navy in satellite communications and intelligence, told BBC that India lags more than a decade behind China in terms of satellite numbers and capabilities.
He noted that India is on equal footing with China in terms of launch vehicles for sending satellites into space. However, when it comes to human spaceflight, India still trails significantly. Additionally, India’s number of satellites remains considerably lower than China’s.
A 2022 report by the US Defense Intelligence Agency highlighted that nearly half of the world’s Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (IRS) systems are controlled by Chinese forces.
These satellites enable the People’s Liberation Army to monitor strategic locations across Korea, Taiwan, the Indian Ocean, and the South China Sea.
The latest data from the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) reveals that China operates at least 245 defense and spy satellites, compared to India’s 26.
Specifically, China has 92 IRS satellites and 81 designed for electronic intelligence and signal detection. In contrast, India has only 15 IRS satellites and a single satellite for electronic intelligence tasks.
This disparity underscores the significant gap in space-based surveillance capabilities between the two nations.
Does China’s Advantage In IRS Satellites Pose A Threat To India?
China’s satellite program, particularly its Yaogan series, plays a crucial role in its global espionage efforts. Since its inception in 2006, China has successfully launched over 140 Yaogan surveillance satellites, with the latest addition being Yaogan 42.
Officially, these satellites are presented as tools for scientific experiments, ground surveys, crop yield predictions, and disaster monitoring. However, many experts believe that the true intent behind the Yaogan program is military, aimed at global surveillance.
Omkar Nikam, Founder of Access Hub – Space, Defence, and Security, told EurAsian Times, “China has a well-established set of military satellites, both in communications and earth observation segments. The Tianhui and Yaogan series of reconnaissance satellites are the latest, which are primarily used for intelligence purposes.”
China prioritizes acquiring capabilities for persistent and near-real-time monitoring, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. This strategic focus is driven by China’s assessment of potential security threats.
Clayton Swope, deputy director of the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said that Yaogan satellites could give China an unprecedented capability to detect and track car-sized objects across the Indo-Pacific region.
Swope added that the enhanced capabilities of the Yaogan satellites enable China to track naval forces from the United States and their allies in both the Indian and Pacific Oceans with greater accuracy than ever before.
Swope noted that the improved resolution of these satellites allows China to monitor not just large vessels but also smaller objects, including aircraft such as fighter jets and bombers.
While stealth technology can make aircraft harder to detect with radar, it is less effective against optical sensors. This limitation was illustrated when a Google Maps user spotted a B-2 stealth bomber over Missouri in 2021.
Furthermore, Swope suggested that integrating Yaogan satellite data with China’s existing geostationary surveillance satellites and advanced artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms could greatly enhance object identification and tracking.
On the other hand, India’s satellite capabilities include the RISAT (Radar Imaging Satellite) series, with the first satellite launched in 2009. Officially, RISAT was intended to monitor natural disasters and observe the Earth. However, its primary role is to detect infiltration along the border.
Like China, India utilizes its satellites for both public and sensitive purposes, often keeping the full scope of their capabilities under wraps.
However, Nikam observed that India has mainly relied on data from scientific satellites for its armed forces. It wasn’t until 2022 that the Indian government approved its first dedicated communications satellites for each military branch.
In October 2024, India’s Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), led by PM Narendra Modi, approved phase III of the Space-Based Surveillance (SBS-III) program, which involves launching 52 spy satellites into low-earth and geostationary orbits. These 52 spy satellites will be launched in the next five years and serve as India’s ‘eyes in the sky’.
However, despite these important strides, India “needs to ramp up its space applications for Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) purposes,” Nikam emphasized.
He also stressed that the involvement of private companies like Dhruva Space, SatSure, Pixxel, and PierSight Space indicates a promising future for India in the military satellite sector.
Despite challenges such as funding, contract management, and supply chain optimization, the current developments suggest that India is making steady progress toward establishing a competitive presence in “sovereign military satellite capabilities.”
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