The ‘Prisoners of Geography’ postulates that geography shapes the fate of nations and global politics. Tim Marshal’s book discusses Russia’s quest for warm-water ports as a guiding principle in its foreign policy. Very soon, Russia will have a train route to Karachi, one of the maritime hubs in not only Pakistan but also South Asia.
By March 15, Pakistan Railways is set to launch the inaugural journey of the international freight train service to Russia. Passing through Iran, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan, and finally to Russia, the freight service is expected to boost regional trade.
The announcement was made by Pakistan Railways Freight CEO Sufiyan Sarfaraz Dogar, who encouraged the business community, especially members of the All-Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA), to commit to containerized cargo shipments for the new service.
The rail link would allow Russia to export oil, natural gas, machinery, steel, and other industrial goods to Pakistan. For Pakistan, it will give access to markets in Iran, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Russia for its exports, including textiles, food products, and agricultural goods. This corridor could facilitate the transport of rice, wheat, and cotton from Pakistan to Russia, as well as the movement of manufactured goods and electronics.
The freight train will run from Qasim International Container Terminal in Karachi and will have the capacity options of 22 tons and 44 tons.
Rail connectivity will shorten travel times and bring down transportation costs, helping Russia forgo reliance on sea routes or air cargo. An operational railway link exists between Turkmenistan and Iran. This link connects the Turkmen town of Serkhetabat, near the Turkmenistan-Iran border, to Mashhad in Iran.
Iran and Pakistan are connected by the Zahedan-Mirjaveh railway. Iran is also connected to Pakistan by the Taftan station. This line facilitates commercial and passenger travel between the two nations by connecting the border town of Mirjaveh in Pakistan with the Iranian city of Zahedan.
The proposal, which aims to establish a cost-effective trade route connecting South Asia with Central Asia and Russia, builds on a memorandum of understanding agreed between Pakistan and Russia during the 27th Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum in June 2024.
APTMA Chairman Kamran Arshad highlighted Pakistan’s textile industry’s growing potential and set an ambitious export target of US$50 billion over the next five years. To avoid sanctions, he is suggesting a barter trade system akin to the Pakistan-Iran model.
Thaw In Russia-Pakistan Relations
The ties between Pakistan and Russia are important for India’s foreign policy calculus, as Moscow is India’s long-time partner and dominant arms supplier. The two countries saw a thaw in their ties in the 2000s.
In 2024, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk’s visits to Islamabad marked the continuation of the growing Pakistan-Russia ties. This embodied a quiet yet tectonic regional development that had its genesis in Pakistan’s then-Prime Minister Imran Khan’s visit to Moscow on the eve of Russia’s Ukraine invasion in February 2022.
The two countries were hostile to each other during the Cold War, as Pakistan shared close ties with the US and even trained the Afghan Mujahedeen to fight the USSR. Despite their checkered past, Russia and Pakistan’s strategic interests are enmeshed as they share the same geopolitical space even though they don’t share borders. Russia cannot ignore Pakistan’s strategic location next to Afghanistan and, by extension, Central Asia.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 further accelerated this process, with bilateral trade breaching the US$1 billion mark in 2024.
For long, Pakistan has been regarded as the ‘troublemaker in the region’ for aiding terrorist networks. But Moscow agrees with Beijing that a solution to Afghanistan’s Taliban problem involves Pakistan. On regional issues like the recognition of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, there is a growing convergence between Russia and Pakistan, as evidenced by Russia’s decision to remove the Taliban from the list of terrorist organizations.
Russia is working on ties with Pakistan with two motives: one, it wants to capitalize on the estrangement between Islamabad and Washington and carve a role for itself in the region. Two, it hopes a better relationship with Pakistan will keep India-US ties in check.
Also, historically strong Indo-Russian cooperation has narrowed due to a decline in overall strategic convergence. India has been diversifying its defense platforms by acquiring weapons from the US, Israel, and France. Hence, Russia requires new markets for its arms and technology.
Russia has already supplied Pakistan with a Mi-35 attack helicopter, and it disregarded India’s concerns by asserting that the rotary aircraft is for counter-terrorism activities. Russia acquiesced to supplying its Kilmov RD-93 engines for JF-17 fighters for the Pakistan Air Force.
For the first time, Russia and Pakistan conducted a joint military exercise, ‘Druzhba’ (friendship), in 2016. The exercises happened at a crucial time, after the Uri attack, and they went ahead despite India’s objections.
Pakistan will also provide Russia access to warm-water ports in the Arabian Sea, which could open up new opportunities for the landlocked countries of Central Asia. The Russian economy has been badly affected by Western sanctions and low oil prices in global markets. Owing to shifts in global politics, Russia is in search of new Asian markets and strategic collaborators to revive its economy.
However, there are a few hiccups in the burgeoning ties between the two countries.
Pakistan’s efforts to revitalize bilateral relations with Russia are hampered by its long-standing reliance on Western organizations such as the International Monetary Fund for economic assistance. This was made clear when Qamar Javed Bajwa, a former army general from Pakistan, was forced to follow Western policy and denounce Russian activities in Ukraine.
The limits of Pakistan’s strategic autonomy to develop an autonomous bilateral relationship with Russia are shown by reports of Pakistani weapons and ammunition reaching Ukraine in return for an IMF bailout.
