As Turkey progresses with developing its own indigenous multi-layered air defense system without the S-400 Triumf that it purchased from Russia, a well-known former Turkish minister suggested in an interview that the most prudent option for Ankara would be to sell off these contentious air defense systems.
In a recent development, Turkey announced plans for a cutting-edge, domestically developed multi-layered air defense system dubbed the ‘Steel Dome.’
In a surprising twist, the $2.5 billion Russian S-400 missile system (the S-400 Triumf is a mobile surface-to-air missile system developed in the 1990s by Russia’s NPO Almaz) has been excluded from this new ambitious initiative.
The advanced air defense system has not been activated or put into operation since it was received from the Russian state exporter Rosoboronexport nearly five years ago.
In December 2023, Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler clarified that the S-400 surface-to-air missile systems that Turkey bought from Russia will remain in the army’s stockpile and be used as necessary.
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This has raised several questions, especially since Turkey purchased an S-400 from Russia despite fierce opposition and warnings from the United States. The US believed that the Russian-made system would jeopardize the F-35 program, of which Turkey was a crucial member. Despite numerous warnings, Turkey proceeded to sign the S-400 purchase agreement with Russia in 2017, as it required a system of that caliber at the time.
Following Ankara’s first acceptance of the S-400s in 2019, the US sanctioned Turkey’s defense sector and removed Turkey from the F-35 program. Turkey chose the defensive S-400 over the offensive fifth-generation F-35 stealth aircraft that would have catapulted it into the group of a select few with that advanced capability.
However, despite all the perils and the urgency shown by Turkey in making the purchase, the S-400 air defense system has yet to be deployed. Experts speculate that the controversy is heightened by the fact that the system, acquired at significant risk, is not included in the nation’s missile defense framework.
However, a former Turkish minister best known for brokering peace between Ankara and Moscow after a Russian fighter jet was shot down by a Turkish F-16 has provided some insights. Speaking in an interview with a Turkish publication, Cavit Caglar said that Turkey should get rid of the S-400s by selling them to a third country.
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Sell The S-400! To Whom?
Caglar said categorically, “If it were me, I would sell the S-400s,” adding that there are states that would be willing to buy the system.
When asked whether Turkey could sell the S-400 to its partner Azerbaijan, Calgar said, “No, Pakistan will buy them, India will buy them.”
Even though he has been out of office for decades, Caglar was crucial in mending the severely strained relations between Turkey and Russia following Turkey’s downing of a Russian bomber over the Syrian border in November 2015. In recognition of his work, Russia granted him the Order of Friendship in 2017. His suggestion regarding Russia’s reaction to Turkey selling the S-400s may, therefore, be quite significant.
Making a case for a potential sale, the former politician said that selling the S-400 would facilitate Turkey’s acquisition of modern F-16s and allow it to rejoin the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, from which Washington expelled it in 2019 after the controversial acquisition.
When asked if he would negotiate a possible sale of the system to a third country with Russia, Calgar said that the people in power would have to do it.
EurAsian Times understands that Turkey would have to obtain approval from the Kremlin to sell the S-400 to a third party — a possibility that remains distant as Ankara has made no indication that it wants to get rid of the system. On the contrary, it has so far dismissed all such calls.
Turkey’s Potential Sale Of S-400
Turkey already convinced the US to sell the F-16 to Ankara in January this year and may not have to turn over its S-400 to secure the jets. Ankara has reportedly backtracked and scaled back the number of upgrade kits and munitions meant for modernizing its aging F-16s and is currently eyeing the Eurofighter Typhoon.
It might be worthwhile to explore if Turkey would consider trading its S-400 systems for a possible acquisition of F-35 Lightning II jets.
Before being kicked out of the F-35 consortium, Turkey was a lead participant. With plans to purchase 100 F-35As for its air force, Turkey was also involved in the production of over 900 F-35 parts for operators worldwide.
With its arch enemy and rival, Greece, now opting for an F-35 fighter jet besides the Rafales in its inventory, Turkey certainly needs to add more teeth to its air fleet. Fortunately, the two NATO allies have come a long way, with Washington hinting at a possible ending of the schism and a potential sale of F-35s to Turkey.
In January this year, Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland of the United States said that Turkey might be able to rejoin the F-35 program provided the S-400 problem was fixed. However, Ankara continues to dilly-dally on the issue.
The Turkish leadership has refused to backtrack on the decision to keep the S-400. In May this year, Defense Minister Yasar Guler refuted reports that Ankara intended to give surface-to-air missile systems it bought from Russia to another nation, most likely Ukraine. “Transferring the S-400s to any country is out of the question,” he said on CNN Turk.
Experts suggest that Turkey’s steadfast support of the Russian S-400 is due to a multitude of other factors. Professors David E. Banks of King’s College, London, and Lisel Hintz of Johns Hopkins University argued in a study that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been unable to back down from the S-400 contract due to domestic pressures and the significance that his administration, its supporters, and others in Turkey placed on it despite its shortcomings. EurAsian Times explained in a detailed analysis why Ankara chose the S-400 over the F-35, which can be read here.
If Turkey were to consider selling the S-400, it would need Russian approval. Interestingly, India is grappling with delays in the delivery of the S-400 systems from Russia. Transferring the AD system to India is not a bad idea, but New Delhi shares frigid ties with Ankara, so any deal is quite unlikely.
The other potential buyer ‘shortlisted’ by Calgar was Pakistan. A military analyst who did not want to be named told the EurAsian Times, “Russia is unlikely to sell the S-400 to Pakistan since India is a strategic partner and would raise strong objections to the sale of the system, particularly because it has deployed the system to deter Pakistan.”
Secondly, S-400s are expensive systems, and economically struggling Pakistan may not have the financial resources to acquire them.
Turkey can even sell the systems to Ukraine under US & Western pressure; however, that would sink its ties with Russia. It is unlikely to happen under Ergogan.
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