Devastating Blow To Russia? Stealthy, TIC-Enabled, ‘Cutting Edge’ Geran-2 Drone Factory Destroyed In Yelabuga?

Ukraine has claimed that a “mysterious” fire has engulfed a warehouse at the Yelabuga drone factory in Russia’s Alabuga Special Economic Zone, destroying US$16 million worth of Shahed-136 drone parts.

The Yelabuga facility, more than 800 miles from Ukraine’s border, produces Shahed drones, which are Iranian-designed kamikaze drones used by Moscow.  

The Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense (HUR) shared the news via Telegram, claiming that the fire obliterated 65 drone fuselages and critical components, including engines, navigation systems, and thermal imaging cameras necessary to produce 400 Shahed-type drones. 

“Everything burned down,” the agency stated but stopped short of directly claiming responsibility for the fire. 

The post described the incident as a “mysterious, devastating fire,” which the HUR framed as another blow to Russia’s military-industrial complex, calling it a “strike” against the country’s war efforts. 

While Ukrainian intelligence has been linked to sabotage operations deep in Russian territory throughout the full-scale war, the exact cause of the fire remains unverified. 

Local Russian authorities did not report any incidents or fires in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone during the night of December 23. However, the fire follows a pattern of Ukrainian strikes against Russian military infrastructure. 

A fire at a warehouse in St. Petersburg earlier this year is part of a growing trend of fires at Russian facilities linked to arms production. (Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations)

On December 21, drones targeted Kazan, the capital of Tatarstan, and damaged several buildings but reportedly caused no casualties. 

The destruction of US$16 million worth of drone components represents a considerable blow to Moscow’s drone production capabilities. Ukrainian forces have frequently targeted Russia’s ammunition and arms production sites as part of their strategy to weaken Moscow’s military capacity.

This isn’t the first time the Yelabuga facility has been hit. In early April, Ukrainian long-range drones struck the site for the first time. At that time, Russian officials, including a local governor, downplayed the attack’s impact, saying there was no serious damage. 

On the other hand, sources within Ukraine’s security services told RBC-Ukraine that the destruction at the facility was far more significant. 

New Enhanced Capabilities Of Shahed Drones

The Yelabuga drone factory was established in July 2023 with the goal of producing both Russian versions of the Iranian-made Shahed drones (Geran) and Albatross reconnaissance drones. 

Moscow has gradually increased its production of Shahed / Geran drones, now reportedly producing around two thousand one-way attack drones each month. 

Russia has frequently employed Iranian-made Shahed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in its strikes on Ukraine. These drones have frequently targeted energy infrastructure and raised the risk of civilian casualties for Kyiv. 

Thanks to domestic production, the Shahed drones currently used in Ukraine have evolved significantly from the early versions seen over two years ago. These advanced models feature “stealth” coatings that make them harder to detect, and new warheads are designed for specific targets. 

Additionally, the drones are equipped with data modems and SIM cards, enabling them to transmit data through the cellphone network to increase their operational capabilities. 

A downed Russian Shahed-136, also known as the Geran-2 attack drone. (Ukraine Ministry of Defense)

In November 2024, Moscow upgraded the drones by equipping them with thermobaric warheads, thereby improving their destructive power. These modified Shahed drones were also equipped with Russian Kometa navigation units. 

Referring to a March 2024 event when Ukraine downed a Shahed-136 drone modified with a video camera for reconnaissance, Vijainder K Thakur, a retired Indian Air Force officer, noted, “The incident appears to confirm that many Geran drones are equipped with thermal imaging (TI) cameras, highlighting their advanced capabilities.”

The drone was capable of transmitting real-time video feeds back to its control station.

These video and thermal imaging capabilities allow Shahed drones to conduct deep visual reconnaissance into Ukrainian territory. Thakur said that after completing extended missions, they are often observed returning to Russian or Belarusian airspace. 

The addition of TI cameras improves their overall effectiveness, enabling enhanced situational awareness, increased strike precision, and robust intelligence-gathering capabilities.

Thermal imaging cameras provide Shahed drones with a key tactical advantage. Thakur explained, “Thermal imaging cameras allow Shahed drones to detect and track moving targets with greater accuracy. This feature is particularly advantageous for targeting moving vehicles or personnel, offering a tactical edge in combat scenarios that require high precision.”

“Furthermore, the integration of these cameras has been observed in missions targeting moving vessels, suggesting the capability for terminal guidance or operator-in-the-loop adjustments during operations,” he added.