After being overtaken by China in naval strength, a senior US military official has now warned that by 2027, China’s modern fighter jet fleet will outnumber US forces about 12 to 1 in key regions of the Western Pacific.
Brigadier General Doug Wickert, commander of the 412th Test Wing at Edwards Air Force Base, shared the information regarding the anticipated dominance of Chinese aerial power during the Back-in-the-Saddle Day event on January 6.
The US Air Force General stated that the speed at which China is modernizing its military is “unprecedented,” further noting that it is “far outpacing” comparable modernization efforts by the United States.
The warning follows the PLA’s introduction of two new combat aircraft on December 26, touted as sixth-generation fighter jets, to celebrate Chinese Communist Party founder Mao Zedong’s birthday.
Since their unveiling, these advanced platforms have fueled continuous discussions about the US possibly falling behind in the race to develop a next-generation fighter jet on schedule.
Andrew Hunter, the Air Force’s outgoing acquisition executive, recently conceded that China ‘could beat us [USA] to the punch’ in rolling out a sixth-generation fighter. Yet, he remained confident that the US would ultimately deploy an aircraft that would surpass China’s in performance.
He said, “So [the] IOC [initial operational capability] date on something, they may well beat us on that. I think we’ll have the better capability, but we certainly have no time to lose.”
Nonetheless, fighter jets are not the only area where General Doug Wickert highlighted a looming threat.
Along with the 12-fold increase in modern fighter jets, Wickert also pointed out a five-to-three ratio in favor of China for fifth-generation aircraft and a three-to-one advantage in maritime patrol aircraft.
“The PLA’s 225 manned bombers are uncontested in the region. On the sea, the PLA enjoys an advantage of three to one in aircraft carriers and amphibious assault ships, more than six to one in modern submarines (including two advanced subs), and nine to one in modern multi-warfare combatant vessels,” Wickert added.
The numerical superiority of these assets also translates into a considerable capability to conduct large-scale operations and project power in the region.
For instance, in mid-December, the PLA navy surrounded Taiwan in an unannounced exercise, the world’s largest naval demonstration since the end of World War II. The exercise was three times larger in number of ships than last June’s vaunted Rim of the Pacific exercise involving 40 US and allied surface ships.
Demonstrating its operational prowess, the PLA also maneuvered around Taiwan’s territorial waters, simulated aerial assaults on maritime targets, and set up a two-tiered naval blockade to restrict both sea and air access from the Western approach.
“We are the smallest and oldest that we have ever been. The PLA is the largest and most modern that it has ever been. That is a risk. That is uncertainty,” Wickert said.
He said that the work at Edwards Air Force Base is vital to shifting Chairman Xi’s calculations, and any setbacks, such as a mishap, could have serious consequences.
He pointed to the B-21 Raider as a key example of the work underway, noting that the aircraft, with an initial order of 100, will become the backbone of the US bomber fleet.
The B-21 Raider will replace the B-1 Lancer and B-2 Spirit over time. He added, “Today is not the day to start World War III because we have this [B-21].”
China’s Cyber Espionage
Wickert further highlighted that years of persistent cyber espionage by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), including the infiltration of critical US infrastructure such as electrical grids, water systems, and transportation networks, has left the United States and its allies increasingly vulnerable.
He revealed that at least a dozen telecom companies have confirmed their systems were infected, putting US government officials and networks at risk of surveillance.
General Wickert added that these vulnerabilities create uncertainty, heighten global risks, and make the current world situation more dangerous.
“The CCP now knows who my government phone has talked to for at least the last four years, and they’re still there and we can’t get them out,” he said. “That’s uncertainty. That’s risk. And it makes for a very, very dangerous world right now.”
This warning comes amid a series of high-profile hacking incidents attributed to China, which the US sees as part of a broader strategy to steal technology and government data and target critical infrastructure.
In November 2024, US authorities revealed a significant cyber espionage campaign by China-linked hackers aimed at stealing information from US government and political figures.
In September 2024, the FBI uncovered a major Chinese hacking operation, dubbed Flax Typhoon, which involved malware affecting over 200,000 consumer devices, including cameras, video recorders, and routers. These infected devices formed a network that enabled cybercrime activities.
In October 2024, the FBI initiated an investigation into the alleged Chinese hacking of mobile phones belonging to Donald Trump and JD Vance, with the same group reportedly targeting individuals connected to Kamala Harris. The hackers were believed to have breached US mobile provider Verizon’s network.
A 2023 Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report revealed that Chinese espionage is increasingly aligned with China’s strategic objectives. This represents a shift from the commercial motives seen in the past.
While commercial espionage remains a significant feature, the report noted that Chinese espionage far surpasses any other country, even Russia.
The long-term economic and national security costs are difficult to measure but are estimated to run into billions of dollars.
Chinese espionage has also inflicted damage to national security, including theft of weapons technology and nuclear test data while adding personal information theft and political coercion to its arsenal in recent years.
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