In the coming decade, the US Navy will be stretched thin to counter the burgeoning numerical strength of the Chinese PLA Navy in the Indo-Pacific. The US Navy that will deliver the wrath of the US beyond its border has an Achilles Heel—not the lack of warships but trained crew to man those warships.
The shortage of qualified mariners is forcing the US to sideline 17 support ships, impacting the logistics backbone of the force.
A plan drafted by the Military Sealift Command suggests that to resolve the shortage of qualified mariners, the US Navy will dock the vessels for extended maintenance periods as its crew is redistributed.
The “force generation reset” would involve 12 spearhead-class Expeditionary Fast Transports (EPF), 2 Lewis and Clark-class replenishment ships, 2 forward-deployed Navy Expeditionary Sea bases, and 1 fleet oiler.
The proposed plan awaits a nod from Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Lisa Franchetti. This would help cut the demand for 600-700 billets. Reports suggest that roughly 4,500 billets are needed for mariners across various US support ships, with a ratio of about 1.27 mariners per billet.
The smaller number of crew members means that mariners often have to stay in for extended periods without enough breaks. These ships are at sea for a complete year, and two crews are required to rotate the crew of these ships.
The great reset aims to increase the mariner-to-billet ratio to around 1.5. It also aims to improve crew management to support the deployment of newer vessels like the John Lewis-class fleet oiler.
Presently, the US Merchant Marines are 5,500-person civilians who are strong and overseen by the US Navy. The mariners work on numerous support vessels that resupply carriers, destroyers, cruisers, and submarines around the world. They also man vital transport vessels.
The US controls about 750 bases in at least 80 countries worldwide and spends more on its military than the following 10 countries combined. The actual number may be even higher as not all data is published by the Pentagon. With 120 active bases, Japan has the highest number of US bases globally, followed by Germany with 119 and South Korea with 73.
For navies of all sizes, auxiliary ships are vital because, without them, the main fleet boats would be left unsupported. And for the US Navy’s extensive reach, it needs a sizable fleet of auxiliary ships.
Shortage Of Manpower
The US military has been struggling to recruit people in its rank and file. After the US Army failed to meet its recruiting targets for two consecutive fiscal years, its strength fell from an original level of 485,000 in late 2021 to around 452,000 active-duty soldiers in 2023.
It is the lowest full-time force size since 1940, before the US entered World War II.
These long-distance deployments take a toll on the family life, tarnishing the sheen of military jobs. During the pandemic, gangway-up measures prevented mariners from leaving their vessels, increasing the difficulties on the job. Many mariners resigned to strike a better work-life balance.
According to reports, in fiscal 2023, only the Marine Corps and the Space Force among the five service branches met their recruiting goals. The Army fell short by about 10,000 of its goal to bring on 65,000 active-duty enlisted soldiers; the Air Force recruited only 24,100 of the 26,877 it wanted; and the Navy recruited 30,236 active-duty enlisted sailors, well short of its goal of 37,000.
The shortfall understates the challenges facing the US military, as the service also had to lower its end-strength goals in recent years to ease the recruitment shortage. The recruitment crisis has been deemed one of the biggest challenges faced by the all-volunteer force since its inception. In 1973, then-President Richard Nixon ended the draft.
Challenging The Dragon With Fewer Vessels
The US Navy told Congress in 2022 that it needs 381 warships as well as up to 150 unmanned vessels to meet its national defense obligations. But even if all its efforts remain on track, the US Navy will be able to meet its goal in around 20 years.
This will make it difficult for the US to keep pace with the growing flotilla of the Chinese Navy. According to the 2022 Pentagon report, China is building more modern surface vessels, aircraft carriers, and support ships to help its naval influence grow. By 2025, the People’s Liberation Army Navy is expected to grow to 400 hulls, up from its fleet of 340.
In contrast, the US Navy has admitted that all of its key shipbuilding programs—from the new Columbia-class submarine to the new Constellation-class frigate—are facing years-long delays.
“I’m concerned that the Navy is falling behind — it is behind,” Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Calif., the chairman of the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee, said Wednesday. “The Navy continues to retire ships faster than it builds them, and I’m troubled by the Navy’s request to decommission 10 ships before the end of their service life and build only six.”
The labor shortage is further resulting in a backlog of ship production and maintenance at a time when the Navy faces global threats. The US has put the US behind China in the number of ships at its disposal, and the gap is widening.
Navy shipbuilding is currently in “a terrible state” — the worst in a quarter century, says Eric Labs, a long-time naval analyst at the Congressional Budget Office. “I feel alarmed,” he said. “I don’t see a fast, easy way to get out of this problem. It’s taken us a long time to get into it.”
The fact that one of its new amphibious assault ships’ deployment was delayed by months shows how this is impacting the US Navy’s readiness in the Indo-Pacific region.
“The Navy’s Pacific Fleet was less ready and less capable because of USS Boxer’s shortfalls,” the admiral who commissioned one of the reports noted in his letter accepting the results. The Navy’s top officer, Admiral Franchetti, has told reporters that the Boxer’s sister ship, the USS Wasp, may also be delayed.
This explains why the US is keen on making countries like South Korea, Japan, and India the maintenance hub for its support ships.
