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US-Russia Relations: Will the US Beat Russia in Gas Exports by 2050?

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US-Russia competition never seems to end. Both nations are always competing in many ways, be it military, security, political or trade. EurAsian Times analyses US-Russia competition in-terms of Energy Export Performances. Can the US overtake Russia to become a leading gas exporter by 2050?

Firstly, below is the list of Top 10 Gas Exporting Countries in the World

  1. Russia
  2. Qatar
  3. Norway
  4. Canada
  5. Netherlands
  6. Turkmenistan
  7. United States
  8. Algeria
  9. Malaysia
  10. Indonesia

The US is moving forward with the vision to be the net exporter of energy by 2020-22 and the larger goal is to maximise the US energy sales abroad by the year 2050. However, the EIA predicts differently. According to the Energy Information Admin. Even if the US enjoys the best of conditions, even in the coming thirty-two years the US will not be able to surpass Russia’s export performance. This is evaluated, keeping in mind Russia’s performance over the next few years.

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The EIA stated that for the US to achieve it’s 2020 vision it will need to focus on High Oil Prices to generate more production of oil and natural gas. But in that case, US will also be faced with higher prices and lower consumption for petroleum products leading to a decline in imports for net petroleum.

Why US-Russia 2050 Energy Performance Does not favour the US

According to the Energy Ministry of US, a rise in the gas exports is expected by 2050, which under increased prices for oil will generate 236 billion cubic meters. With lower priced oil, however, it will amount to 174 billion cubic meters as predicted by the EIA. The forecasted numbers add up favourably for Russia.

Also Read Israel News at EurAsian Times: $15 Billion Israel-Egypt Deal Signed; The Biggest for Israel’s Natural Gas Industry

While predictions don’t always come true, it has already been seen that an increase in oil prices have led oil and gas companies in the US to opt out of the OPEC freeze deal. These companies are also maximising output and lowering prices on their own. While the US could surpass Saudi Arabia and Russia in terms of production, the EIA states that this would lead to a disrupted supply and demand balance in the world; also lowering the oil prices.

What do the Experts have to say about the US-Russia 2050 vision?

According to the Deputy Director of ACRA, the logic for the US is higher prices means more extraction and vice versa. Another Sr. Analyst from NESF says that even in the Asian-pacific region the demand will not grow as per the surging production in the US at high prices for the raw material required for production. The EIA forecast is especially valuable for investors who may be considering investing in the oil and gas industry. Currently, US stands at number 7 amongst the gas exporting countries of the world.

Other News at EurAsian Times

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Comet Neowise in India: Rare Neowise Comet will be visible in North-West India from Today – NASA

NASA Comet Neowise India: NASA’s Neowise infrared space telescope discovered the comet on 27 March. Scientists involved in the mission said the comet is about five kilometres across and its nucleus is covered with sooty material dating back to the origin of our solar system 4.6 billion years ago.

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The Comet Neowise, or C/20202 F3  will be noticeable in the northwest sky in India from 14 July onwards. As per NASA, Neowise should be visible just before and around the time of first light till 11 July. It will again start to be visible in the evening between 15 and 16 July.

“From July 14, C/2020 F3, a comet discovered on March 27, will be clearly visible in the north-western sky. It will be visible after sunset for around 20 minutes for the next 20 days. People can observe it from naked eyes,” said Subhendu Pattnaik, deputy director of Pathani Samanta Planetarium in Bhubaneswar told ANI.

“In the evenings to follow, the comet will rapidly climb higher in the sky and will be visible for a longer period,” he added.

Comet Neowise swept within Mercury’s orbit a week ago. Its close vicinity to the sun caused dust and gas to burn off its surface and create an even bigger debris tail. According to CNET, Neowise passed a critical point when it survived its closest brush with the sun without cracking up from the heat last week.

NASA’s Neowise infrared space telescope discovered the comet on 27 March. Scientists involved in the mission said the comet is about five kilometres across and its nucleus is covered with sooty material dating back to the origin of our solar system 4.6 billion years ago.

Soon after, numerous amateur photographers began sharing stunning images of the comet just above the horizon during predawn hours. Twitter user Jeremy Perez shared the image shot from close to the Wupatki National Monument showcasing the bright celestial body.

According to the CNET report, as the comet moves farther away from the sun and closer to Earth, it will be visible in the evening sky and not before dawn. As per NASA solar system ambassador Eddie Irizarry, Neowise should be visible just before and around the time of first light till 11 July. It will again start to be visible in the evening between 15 and 16 July.

While it’s visible with the naked eye in dark skies with little or no light pollution, binoculars are needed to see the long tail, according to NASA. It will be about 7,000 years before the comet returns, “so I wouldn’t suggest waiting for the next pass,” said the telescope’s deputy principal investigator Joe Masiero of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.

Recently, astronauts from the International Space Station managed to get a stunning glimpse of a natural light show from a comet this weekend. NASA astronaut Bob Behnken shared a tweet highlighting Neowise. He captioned the post, “Last night’s fireworks, for real. Because Science.”

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US-China ties to worsen as Trump set to block all Chinese claims in South China Sea

Ties between US and China could dramatically worsen over the South China Sea after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Washington now regards virtually all Chinese maritime claims outside its internationally recognised waters to be illegitimate. 

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Ties between the US and China are set to further deteriorate over the South China Sea as the Trump administration is set to outrightly reject almost all of Chinese maritime claims in the contentious waterbody.

US exasperated over Iran-China $400 billion pact

The Trump government presented the decision as an endeavour to restrain China’s increasing belligerence in the region with a commitment to recognising international law. This move in the South China Sea will further enrage the Chinese, who are already countering against various US sanctions and other penalties.

Previously, US policy had been to insist that maritime spats between China and its smaller neighbours be settled peacefully through UN-backed arbitration.

But in a statement released on Monday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Washington now regards virtually all Chinese maritime claims outside its internationally recognised waters to be illegitimate.

“The world will not allow Beijing to treat the South China Sea as its maritime empire,” Pompeo said. “America stands with our Southeast Asian allies and partners in protecting their sovereign rights to offshore resources, consistent with their rights and obligations under international law. We stand with the international community in defence of freedom of the seas and respect for sovereignty and reject any push to impose ‘might makes right’ in the South China Sea or the wider region.”

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Although the US will continue to remain impartial in territorial conflicts, the announcement means Washington is now directly supporting Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam, all of which oppose Chinese declarations of sovereignty over maritime areas surrounding disputed islands, reefs and shoals.

“There are clear cases where [China] is claiming sovereignty over areas that no country can lawfully claim,” the State Department said in a fact sheet that accompanied the statement.

The announcement was released a day after the fourth anniversary of a binding decision by an arbitration panel in favour of the Philippines that discarded Chinese maritime claims around the Spratly Islands and neighbouring reefs and shoals.

China has declined to recognise that ruling, rejected it as a “sham” and withdrew from the arbitration proceedings. It has continued to oppose the decision with aggressive actions that have brought it into territorial disputes with Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia in recent years.

However, as a result, the administration said China has no valid maritime claims to the fish- and potentially energy-rich Scarborough Reef, Mischief Reef or Second Thomas Shoal. The US has repeatedly said areas regarded to be part of the Philippines are covered by a US-Philippines mutual defence treaty in the event of an attack on them.

In addition to reemphasising support for that decision, Pompeo said China cannot legitimately claim the James Shoal near Malaysia, waters surrounding the Vanguard Bank off Vietnam, the Luconia Shoals near Brunei and Natuna Besar off Indonesia. As such, Washington said it would regard any Chinese intimidation of fishing vessels or oil exploration in those areas as unlawful.

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US exasperated over Iran-China $400 billion pact

China’s 400 dollar deal is a breather for Iran’s economy which is hard hit by Trump “maximum pressure” campaign against the Islamic nation. Tehran has been hit hard by these sanctions reimposed following Washington’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018.

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The US is fuming with China over a possible $400 billion deal with Iran. China and Iran are negotiating a 25-year pact which would get China a substantial discount on the Iranian oil. In return, Beijing will invest a whopping $400 billion in the Islamic nation over a period of 25 years.

S-400 vs Rafale: Turkey to deploy Russian S-400 Missile to counter French Rafale Jets

Amid the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic coupled with severe US sanctions, Iran is seeing a looming economic crisis which has led to a destruction of the livelihood of millions of Iranian people.

China’s billion-dollar deal is a breather for Iran’s economy which is hard hit by Trump “maximum pressure” campaign against the Islamic nation. Tehran has been hit hard by these sanctions reimposed following Washington’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018.

Iranian crude exports have been severely curtailed by the US sanctions, as has much of the country’s foreign trade. “Every road is closed to Iran,” said Fereydoun Majlesi, a former diplomat and a columnist for several Iranian newspapers on diplomacy. “The only path open is China. Whatever it is, until sanctions are lifted, this deal is the best option.”

The deal is yet to be approved the Majles, Iran’s parliament. It is expected to expand economic development in a variety of fields, including banking and infrastructure, such as telecommunications and transport.

In return of this investment, Beijing is going to receive Iranian oil at a sharply reduced price for the next quarter-century. This would potentially help Iran roll out its 5G network through China’s global positioning system.

The deal also incorporates military cooperation between Iran and China including weapons development, combined training and intelligence sharing in order to combat “the lopsided battle with terrorism, drug and human trafficking and cross-border crimes”.

Unlike most of the countries, China has sensed the American weakness during the reeling recession amid the Covid-19 pandemic and is ready to defy the US by withstanding Trump’s penalties amid the US-China trade war.

Tehran and Beijing’s show of strength against their common foe, the US has evoked a bitter reaction. The expansion of military assistance, training and intelligence-sharing has alarmed Washington.

China and the US continue to tangle in the internationally disputed waters of the South China Sea while the US warships often challenge Iranian forces in the Persian Gulf. “The United States will continue to impose costs on Chinese companies that aid Iran, the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism,” a US State Department spokeswoman wrote in response to questions about the draft agreement.

“By allowing or encouraging Chinese companies to conduct sanctionable activities with the Iranian regime, the Chinese government is undermining its own stated goal of promoting stability and peace,” she added.

“Iran and China both view this deal as a strategic partnership in not just expanding their own interests but confronting the U.S.,” said Ali Gholizadeh, an Iranian energy researcher at the University of Science and Technology of China in Beijing. “It is the first of its kind for Iran which is keen on having a world power as an ally.”

Beijing’s indifference to regime transgression against the Iranian people and to keep the regime afloat has shattered Washington’s dream of any potential influence that it dreamt of through its maximum pressure campaign. After trying to cut off all of the options available to the regime, it is hardly a surprise if Tehran is willing to accept the way out offered by the Chinese.

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