The Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed in Kazakhstan was apparently shot down by a Russian surface-to-air missile. While there is no conclusive proof yet, despite Putin’s apology, this would not be the first instance of a passenger plane accidentally downed by an anti-aircraft system in a war zone.
According to Azerbaijan government sources, the missile was fired at Flight 8432 during drone activity above Grozny, and the shrapnel hit the Embraer 190 plane as the missile exploded next to the aircraft mid-flight.
The missile was reportedly fired from a Pantsir-S air defense system, Baku-based international outlet AnewZ claimed, citing Azerbaijani government sources. Thirty-eight of the 67 people on board – 62 passengers and five crew – were killed in the tragic incident.
Russian authorities have urged people not to speculate about the crash until the probe is over; aviation experts have pointed to holes in the plane’s fuselage and marks on the tail section as being consistent with damage from shrapnel from missiles.
Meanwhile, while not explicitly acknowledging Russian involvement in the crash, President Vladimir Putin has apologized for the “tragic incident” while hinting that Russian air defense systems could have hit it.
“(President) Vladimir Putin apologized for the tragic incident that occurred in Russian airspace and once again expressed his deep and sincere condolences to the families of the victims and wished a speedy recovery to the injured,” the Kremlin said in a statement.
“It was noted in the conversation that the Azerbaijani passenger aircraft, which was traveling according to its schedule, repeatedly tried to land at Grozny airport. At that time, Grozny, Mozdok, and Vladikavkaz were being attacked by Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles, and Russian air defense systems repelled these attacks,” the Kremlin said.
There is another theory that suggests that the Pantsir-S air defense system might have shot the Azerbaijani plane when in fully automatic mode. The Russians themselves boasted about this feature in 2020 when they said that “Pantsir-S” has received “signs of artificial intelligence” and will be able to shoot down targets without human participation.
While an investigation is underway, if a missile hit is confirmed, this would not be unprecedented.
Aviation history during the last 50 years is replete with instances of both civilian and military aircraft coming under ‘friendly fire.’ As a matter of fact, the shooting down of an Azerbaijan plane due to an air defense system misidentification is the second such incident this month and the third this year.
U.S. Navy’s Super Hornet Shot Down In Friendly Fire
Earlier this month, a U.S. Navy’s F/18 Super Hornet was shot over the Red Sea in an apparent case of friendly fire.
The guided-missile cruiser USS Gettysburg (CG 64), part of the USS Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group, mistakenly fired on and hit the F/A-18, which was flying off the USS Harry S. Truman.
The incident happened over the Red Sea after the Super Hornet, assigned to the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman, was on a mission to protect merchant vessels from Houthi rebels. The US-guided missile destroyer USS Gettysburg fired upon it, though the two U.S. Navy pilots ejected safely and were rescued.
An investigation is underway to ascertain the circumstances leading to this incident of ‘friendly fire,’ however, it must be noted that the incident happened when the US assets in the Red Sea were under constant fire from the Houthi rebels.
Earlier in February, a German frigate accidentally targeted an American MQ-9 Reaper drone while it was on a mission over the Red Sea. Fortunately, the missiles never reached the drone due to a technical error in the warship’s radar system.
Iran Shoots Down Passenger Plane In Tehran In 2020
In January 2020, Iran accidentally shot down a Ukraine International Airlines Passenger Flight 752 from Tehran to Kyiv. The Boeing 737-800 operating the route was shot down by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) shortly after takeoff from Tehran Imam Khomeini International Airport, killing all 176 people on board, including 82 Iranians, 63 Canadians, and 11 Ukrainians.
After initially denying responsibility, Iran finally admitted that IRGC troops accidentally shot the passenger flight.
On the fateful night of January 8, 2020, Tehran launched multiple missiles against the U.S. air bases in Iraq to avenge the killing of IRGC Commander Qasem Soleimani. In the ensuing confusion that followed, Tehran mistook the passenger plane for a cruise missile launched by the U.S. in retaliation, leading to the tragic accident.
Indian Army Shoots Down Own Chopper
On February 27, 2019, an Indian Air Force Mi-17V5 chopper was shot down in a case of friendly fire during heightened tensions with Pakistan following the Balakot airstrike. The helicopter was flying near Budgam in Jammu and Kashmir. It was during the same time that Pakistan Air Force fighter jets breached Indian air space.
In the ensuing confusion, the Mi-17 V5 helicopter was mistakenly identified as a hostile aircraft by the IAF’s air defense system. The helicopter was hit by an IAF Spyder surface-to-air missile, resulting in the death of six Air Force personnel and a civilian.
Notably, the IAF Mi-17 V5 helicopter was allowed to get airborne from Srinagar without the IFF (Identification Friend or Foe) on despite heightened tensions with Islamabad and a strong probability of Pakistani response following the Balakot airstrikes on Pakistan the previous day.
2014: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 Shot Down Over Ukraine
If it is confirmed that the Azerbaijani aircraft crashed due to a Russian anti-aircraft missile, this would make the plane the second passenger aircraft to have succumbed to the Russia-Ukraine war.
Earlier in 2014, Malaysian Airlines flight MH17, en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, was shot down by a Russian SAM.
The devastating incident took place on July 17, 2014, when a Russian-origin surface-to-air missile shot down a passenger airplane over the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk during the War in Donbas, killing all 298 people on board. The incident was attributed to Moscow-backed separatists in the region who thought they were targeting a Ukrainian fighter jet.
An investigation was launched into the incident by the International Joint Investigation Team (JIT). The team determined in 2016 that a Buk anti-aircraft missile system from the 53rd Air Defense Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces based in Kursk was responsible for downing the aircraft.
2001: Siberian Airlines Flight Shot Down During Joint Russia-Ukraine Exercise
While the ‘fog of war’ often leads to passenger planes getting mistakenly hit, such incidents can also happen during friendly military exercises.
Although Russia and Ukraine have been engaged in a war for nearly three years now, they had good relations in the first decade of this century, and the militaries of both countries also engaged in friendly exercises.
On October 4, 2001, Siberian Airlines Flight 1812, a Tupolev Tu-154, crashed over the Black Sea en route from Tel Aviv, Israel, to Novosibirsk, Russia, killing all 78 people onboard. Although the immediate suspicion was of a terrorist attack, it was later confirmed that the plane was hit by a S-200 surface-to-air missile fired from the Crimean Peninsula during a joint Ukrainian-Russian military exercise.
1988: Pakistan Shoots Down Afghan Plane During Afghan-Soviet War
Thirty people were killed when Pakistan shot down an Afghan transport plane in November 1988. The pilot lost his way because of a technical problem during a flight from Kabul, the Afghan capital, to Jalalabad in the east and mistakenly entered Pakistani airspace.
Pakistan said they asked the plane to identify itself and shot down the aircraft after it failed to identify itself. Incidentally, Afghanistan and Pakistan had hostile relations during this time as Islamabad was providing a safe haven to Taliban fighters opposed to the Soviet Union-aligned Communist government in Kabul.
1988: US Shoots Down Iranian Passenger Plane, Agrees To Pay Compensation
Iran Air flight 655 was shot down by the missile cruiser USS Vincennes on July 3, 1988, over the Strait of Hormuz, killing all 290 people on board. The passenger plane, which was in Iranian airspace, had been incorrectly identified as a fighter jet.
Incidentally, in 1988, Iran and Iraq were in the midst of a war that often included attacks on each other’s oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. The US was among several countries with warships in the area to safeguard oil transport.
A subsequent US Navy inquiry concluded it was “a tragic and regrettable accident,” citing “stress and unconscious distortion of data” as primary causes for the misidentification of civilian planes as military aircraft.
In May 1989, Iran filed a lawsuit against the US at the International Court of Justice. As the case dragged on, a settlement was reached in 1996. The US “expressed deep regret” for shooting down the plane and agreed to pay US$61.8 million to the victims’ families.
Fog Of War: Why Such Incidents Happen Despite Latest Tech
Fratricide or “friendly fire” is a scenario where aircraft are fired upon and even shot down by their own side, those aligned with them, or even by a third ‘neutral’ party during a conflict.
Friendly fire can arise from the “fog of war” – the confusion inherent in warfare situations and it is a large contributor to the overall death toll, accounting for 10 to 20% of all combat-related deaths according to some estimates.
Misidentification, untrained operators, system malfunction, panic, or fear can all contribute to friendly fire incidents.
However, research indicates that the loss of situational awareness and the lack of positive target identification account for most incidents of air-land fratricide. The target acquisition and weapon system technologies have outpaced target identification capabilities, and most target identification in battle is still visual.
Similarities between friendly and enemy combat systems further degrade target identification efforts and increase the risk of ‘blue on blue.’
While most air defense systems generally differentiate between civilian and military targets and between friendly and enemy targets (the IFF—Identify Friend or Foe), the compulsion to make a decision within split seconds during high-intensity conflicts means mistakes often happen.
“Friendly and enemy aircraft can be in the engagement areas. Identification systems can malfunction. Friendly aircraft profiles can look like threat profiles. And certainly, human error can enter into the equation. Operators may have minutes or even seconds to make a determination, and mistakes occur,” Martin, now a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, was quoted as saying by the Business Insider.
Whether or not a missile shot down the Azerbaijan plane, the danger of civilian passenger planes mistakenly falling victim to air defense missiles is always there. This danger is even more grave during high-intensity conflicts when troops work under stressful conditions and are instructed to eliminate any potential incoming threat.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from The University of Sheffield, UK. He is interested in studying Geopolitics from a historical perspective.
- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
