US President Donald Trump’s offer to sell its 5th-generation fighter jet, the F-35, to India, which has inducted the Russian long-range, surface-to-air missile system S-400, has been an interesting development. It was precisely this reason that led to NATO-member Turkey’s edging out of the F-35 development program.
India has also not been keen on the F-35, which is considered one of the world’s most expensive platforms today. Its sale was contingent on the Indian Air Force (IAF) buying F-16s as a first step.
Even Lockheed Martin, the aircraft manufacturer, has maintained that India is not yet ready for such a weapon system, as it will take the country time to progress to this technological stage. India has no US combat aircraft in its fighter fleets, and directly going for the fifth-generation fighter would not be feasible.
Trump’s offer also comes as New Delhi is mulling ways to arrest the widening chasm in air power between the IAF and the PLA-Air Force (PLAAF). It will be interesting to see if Trump’s diplomatic blitzkrieg will seal the deal for the IAF to get its 5th-generation fighter jet.
Getting The Most Bang For Its Buck
India needs many aircraft to maintain combat parity with the Chinese PLAAF, which remains the IAF’s primary adversary for years to come.
However, during its first tenure, the Narendra Modi government scrapped the acquisition of 126 Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) as the Dassault Rafale, selected as L1, refused to play ball. Later, in 2015, the government decided to buy 36 Rafales through a government-to-government contract as an emergency procurement.
The deal sparked a political and legal row because it was considered very expensive and did not include any technology transfer to manufacture the aircraft in India.
Later, in 2018, due to its focus on ‘Make in India,’ the Indian government withdrew from the joint development program for ‘Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft’ (FGFA) with Russia. Moscow went ahead with the project alone, and in December 2020, the Su-57 fighter jet entered service with the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS).
The Su-57 (NATO reporting name ‘Felon’) participated in the recently concluded Aero India 2025, and Russia has offered India an attractive deal for the joint production of the 5th-generation aircraft in India.
Meanwhile, for the last few years, the Indian government has channeled all its efforts into the development of Light Combat Aircraft (LCA)—namely LCA MK1A and LCA Mk2—and the indigenous 5th-generation fighter jet – Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA).
Despite the IAF’s hard push, the Indian government, emphasizing “Make in India,” has not budged to purchase 114 fighter jets from foreign manufacturers at an estimated US$20 billion.
The IAF urgently needs the 114 MRFA (multi-role fighter aircraft) to maintain a combative edge, but the ‘steel birds’ will take at least 6 to 8 years to enter its fleet.
However, during this time period, the indigenous LCA MK2 is expected to be up and flying. The LCA MK2 program will cost substantially less than the MRFA deal, so the government might be reluctant to give it the go-ahead.
In such a scenario, it will be interesting to see if the Indian government will go for the F-35s, one of the most expensive fighter programs, with high procurement and maintenance costs.
The F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter is the most expensive weapon system program from the Department of Defense (DoD), with an estimated cost of US$2 trillion to operate 2,470 planned aircraft through 2088.
If New Delhi purchases 114 F-35s, the cost will be prohibitive. The flyaway cost for the F-35A variant is approximately US$82.5 million per unit. However, export prices typically include additional costs, pushing the effective unit cost to around US$100-110 million. This price tag does not include the weapon package.
Additionally, the operating cost, subsequent upgrades, and spares will further push the life-cycle costs of F-35 induction.
For perspective, according to the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) of Canada, the life-cycle costs for owning and operating a fleet of F-35 fighter jets over the next four and a half decades are expected to cost Canadian taxpayers as much as US$73.9 billion. Canada is expected to procure 88 F-35A fighters.
A similar F-35 deal for India could cost as much as US$100 billion. Also, it is highly unlikely that the US will transfer technology to manufacture the F-35s in India.
The IAF’s Chief Air Marshal AP Singh has emphasized the importance of manufacturing aircraft in the country, as it gives India the ability to carry out upgrades and weapons integration as required. A case in point is the Jaguar aircraft in its inventory.
If India opts for fewer F-35s (let’s say 40 of these), it will not do much to bring parity between Indian and Chinese air power. At the same time, a diverse fighter fleet can be a logistical nightmare.
The PLA-Air Force’s fleet has approximately 1,700 fighters, including over 190 fifth-generation J-20s and a second fifth-generation fighter J-35, expected to enter service soon.
Lockheed Martin has ramped up production of the F-35 to 156 units per year, and this production rate is expected to be maintained for the foreseeable future. The company reached full-scale production in 2023; however, late deliveries of engines and aircraft, as well as hardware and software delays, continue to be challenges for the timely production of the aircraft.
In 2024, Lockheed Martin delivered 110 F-35s. Germany and Finland are expecting to receive their 35 and 64 F-35s, respectively, by the end of 2025. Thereafter, production will start for 20 F-35As for Greece and 32 for Romania. Additional orders are expected from countries like Poland, Singapore, and Switzerland.
Compatibility With Predominantly Russian-Origin Equipment In IAF
One major complication with integrating the F-35 with the IAF is the issue of compatibility.
Firstly, the fighter jet will be unable to use air-to-air refueling because of a different configuration in its design. Presently, the Russian Il-78 has been configured for air-to-air refueling in the IAF. F-35 will not be able to interface with India’s Integrated Air Command & Control System (IACCS), which consists of a wide range of radar types, with customized data links restricting the F-35’s capability in a combat environment.
F-35 is equipped with state-of-the-art radio communications equipment that will be incompatible with India’s Russian-origin communication suites.
Its induction into the IAF will mean replacing almost 80 percent of the software and hardware in service. Most importantly, almost none of the weapons in the current Indian inventory can be integrated with the aircraft, which would have to be separately purchased, resulting in cost overruns.
Strings Attached To American Fighter Jet
India might also require permission from the US to use American fighter planes for nuclear delivery. Also, if the US government acquiesces to the role and the Administration allows it, it can be challenged in a US court.
The nuclear delivery platforms in India are French Mirages, Rafales, and British Jaguars.
It remains to be seen if geo-political considerations and US pressure would force India to purchase the “White Elephant”.
